🏀 March Madness 5 vs. 12 Upset Rankings: Best 12-Seed Picks for 2026

The No. 5 vs. No. 12 upset pick has become synonymous with March Madness, and is often one of the most popular bracket picks every year. There have been 57 instances of a No. 5 seed beating a No. 12 since the NCAA Tournament expanded in 1985, including two such upsets in each of the last two years.

This year we have another four juicy matchups that are likely to whet bettors' appetites, and my 5 vs. 12 upset rankings look at each one and ranks them all from the most likely to least likely upset. My most targeted upset is from a team with NCAA Tournament experience, earning its third straight automatic bid and fourth in the last five years. It all adds to our March Madness predictions. 

🏀 March Madness upset rankings for every 5 vs. 12 matchup

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

1️⃣ No. 12 Akron over No. 5 Texas Tech

See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Since Texas Tech star center JT Toppin suffered a season-ending injury, the Red Raiders are 3-3 and stumble into the “Big Dance” having lost three straight. The injury news didn’t get any better, as it is fair to wonder if current leading scorer Christian Andersen will be 100% after suffering a groin injury. He has three games of 21-plus points in Toppin’s absence.

Guard play is always so important in March, and Akron has a wealth of backcourt options that will serve as a great foil to Texas Tech’s physical half-court style. 

The Zips let it fly from deep, getting nearly 38% of its scoring from 3-point range. That sharpshooting is a big reason they rank seventh nationally with 88.4 points per game, which is also on pace to be a school record. If their shots are falling, they are the most dangerous 5-seed in the field.

2️⃣ No. 12 High Point over No. 5 Wisconsin

See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

High Point has its hands full if it wants to extend the nation’s longest active winning streak to 15 games, as it deals with a talented Wisconsin backcourt duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell. 

One thing is for sure, the Panthers won’t beat themselves. High Point owns the fifth-lowest turnover rate in the country, and no player on its roster averages more than 1.8 turnovers per night. That ball security combined with a top-50 adjusted tempo means a lot of clean looks, and often a shot quality advantage, over its opponents.

Lastly, one of High Point’s biggest weaknesses is not likely to be exposed, as Wisconsin ranks 225th in offensive rebounding percentage, facing High Point’s 236th-ranked defensive rebounding rate.

3️⃣ No. 12 McNeese over No. 5 Vanderbilt

See the official March Madness bracket for every team's path to the Final Four.

McNeese is D-I’s top defense in terms of turnover rate and steal rate. And it can afford to take more chances defensively thanks to a disruptive defense that ranks fourth in block percentage too.

The reason the Cowboys rank third on my most likely 5 vs. 12 upsets list is that they were not given the best opponent to capitalize off of. Vanderbilt’s steady backcourt of Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner are a big reason the Commodores rank 11th in turnover rate. Vanderbilt also owns four non-conference wins over teams in the field, not to mention beating No. 1 seed Florida last week.

4️⃣ No. 12 Northern Iowa over No. 5 St. John's

Northern Iowa’s best, and maybe only chance at an upset is to grind this game to a complete halt and take advantage of its D-I best 61.3 points per game scoring defense. But Rick Pitino will extend his defense and do everything he can to speed the Panthers up.

Northern Iowa is the 11th-highest-ranked defensive team to land as a No. 12 seed since 2008. They have only had their top six players available and playing impactful minutes for 63% of their games, so it is fair to wonder how much higher of a seed they could’ve gotten if they didn’t have to be the No. 6 seed in their own conference tournament. 

But St. John’s can also stake claim to the most underseeded No. 5 seed, and they haven’t seed a style like the Red Storm’s all season. 

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting 5 vs. 12 matchups in March Madness 2026

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

I love Akron's chances of knocking off Texas Tech, enough to make the Zips' +260 moneyline odds a 0.25-unit play. But I will also make Akron +7.5 one of my top point spread wagers for Friday.

Seeing as we have had two straight years of two No. 12 seeds winning, I will also make a 0.25-unit play on High Point's moneyline odds. But I will not be touching McNeese or Northern Iowa's moneyline, especially the latter, as St. John's is 19-0 when allowing 70 or fewer points.