🏀 March Madness Bracket Reactions 2026: Expert Picks & Upset Predictions

The NCAA Tournament field is officially set, which means every sports fan on the planet is filling out their March Madness picks and hoping to nail a few bracket upset predictions. And less than an hour after the reveal, I locked in my instant March Madness bracket reactions.

Though my Final Four predictions are expecting a chalky showing in Indianapolis, I've got more than a few upsets with my 2026 NCAA Tournament picks.

🏀 Expert March Madness bracket 2026: Full picks & predictions

Here's a look at my instant reaction March Madness bracket for the NCAA Tournament. And don't forget to fill out your own free printable March Madness bracket.

🎯 Ranking the No. 1 seeds: The clearest path to the Final Four

Check out the latest March Madness odds and Final Four odds.

The overall favorite: Michigan (+360)

Despite losing the Big Ten Tournament championship to Purdue and slipping behind Arizona in the selection committee's rankings, Michigan is the March Madness odds favorite. That's because the Wolverines have the clearest path to the Final Four.

Dusty May's team is in a Midwest region that includes several single-digit seeds that are susceptible to upsets (Alabama, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Kentucky) and the lowest-ranked No. 3 seed by KenPom (Virginia).

Though guard play remains a question, especially with the injury to L.J. Cason, Michigan's dominant frontcourt is capable of bullying its way to the Final Four in Indianapolis. There's also a realistic chance that Yaxel Lendeborg and Co. won't even have to play a high-major until the Elite Eight.

The most vulnerable No. 1 seed: Florida (+750)

Everyone's talking about the East region being loaded with blue bloods and legendary coaches, which it is, but I do not envy what the defending champions will need to deal with in the South. 

Todd Golden's Gators have the best No. 2 seed (Houston) and No. 3 seed (Illinois) in the bracket for my money. Kelvin Sampson's Cougars are one of five teams ranked in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the Fighting Illini are No. 1 in the country in offensive rating (125.5).

The South is also home to a Vanderbilt team that just beat Florida in the SEC Tournament, not to mention two potential March heroes. Iowa's Bennett Stirtz is one of three high-major players in the country averaging 20-plus PPG and 4.5-plus APG, while Troy's Victor Valdes has earned the nickname "Mexican Luka" for a reason.

👠 March Madness upset alerts: Bracket busters to watch

Best first-round upset pick: No. 11 South Florida over No. 6 Louisville

There's plenty of upset potential with this year's NCAA Tournament, and it should make up for last year's lack of madness. But no single-digit seed jumps out more in the first round as a potential upset candidate than Louisville ... so of course, they draw a mid-major darling in South Florida.

Pat Kelsey's Cardinals have been struggling to take flight down the stretch, losing four of their last eight games. Plus, star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. has missed the team's last four games with a back injury.

Even worse for Louisville? South Florida's a wagon under the fiery leadership of bench boss Bryan Hodgson. His Bulls are ranked No. 8 nationally in PPG (88.3) and No. 15 in adjusted tempo behind the play American Player of the Year Izaiyah Nelson.

Best Cinderella pick to reach Sweet 16: No. 12 Akron

Everyone loves the No. 12 vs. No. 5 upset pick, and rightfully so. A No. 12 seed has beaten a No. 5 seed 10 times in the last six NCAA Tournaments, and it's poised to happen again in 2026.

While Miami (OH) got all of the attention out of the MAC this year, thanks to its undefeated regular season, Akron is the better team on paper and won the conference tournament. The Zips are more than a bid stealer, too; they're a legit threat to make a run in March.

John Groce's team is top 10 in the country in PPG (88.4), offensive rating (123.1), and field-goal percentage (50.3%). Guard Tavari Johnson is one of the most lethal mid-major players in the nation (20.1 PPG), and should give Texas Tech plenty of problems in the first round. 

The Red Raiders are without All-American JT Toppin, and All-Big 12 guard Christian Anderson exited the Big 12 Tournament with an injury after slipping on the LED glass court.

Double-digit seeds ready for a run: 5 Cinderellas to watch

🔮 2026 Regional breakdowns: Predicting the winners

East region (Washington, D.C.)

• Quick take: This region is stacked with blue blood programs and championship-winning coaches, but no team has the talent to stop Wooden Award odds favorite Cameron Boozer
• Best regional value bet: St. John's (+1300) - Rick Pitino has done it all in his Hall of Fame career and just blew out UConn to win a second straight
• Best first round matchup: No. 11 South Florida vs. No. 6 Louisville
• Dark horse: South Florida (+75000) - Hodgson's team plays with absurd pace and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Final Four pick: Duke (-165)

West region (San Jose)

• Quick take: The West is full of star guards, from Darius Acuff Jr. to Braden Smith; however, no team has the length and defensive dominance of Arizona, with Tommy Lloyd's team sitting No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency
• Best regional value bet: Purdue (+800) - the preseason favorites to win it all are heating up at the right time after dismantling Michigan in the NCAA Tournament
• Best first round matchup: No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 8 Villanova
• Dark horse: Utah State (+10000) - the Aggies should have been at least a top eight seed with Jerrod Calhoun having a nasty guard combo in Mason Falslev and MJ Collins
• Final Four pick: Arizona (-120)

South region (Houston)

• Quick take: This is going to be the most competitive region (Florida, Houston, and Illinois are all capable of making a push to the Final Four), with Houston having the highest ceiling due to its combo of guard play and defensive talent
• Best regional value bet: Illinois (+460) - at its best, Illinois can beat anyone because of Keaton Wagler and the insane size of Brad Underwood's roster, and I think the Sweet 16 winner of Illinois vs. Houston will beat Florida
• Best first round matchup: No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 8 Clemson
• Dark horse: Troy (+50000) - Scott Cross is one hell of a coach, and the Trojans surround their scary frontcourt duo of Valdes and Thomas Dowd with capable shooters in the Campbell brothers (Cooper and Cobi)
• Final Four pick: Houston (+230)

Midwest region (Chicago)

• Quick take: Maybe losing to Purdue worked out for Michigan, which ends up in what appears to be the easiest region, one full of inconsistent teams that do not have the size to match May's Wolverines
• Best regional value bet: Iowa State (+460) - the Cyclones are the hardest top three seed to gauge, some nights looking like championship contenders and others looking like frauds, but they're the only Midwest team that can compete with Michigan
• Best first round matchup: No. 8 Saint Louis vs. No. 9 Georgia
• Dark horse: Akron (+30000) - the Zips have an explosive offense that plays with tempo and is led by a star guard in Johnson, who could lead Akron to some shocking wins
• Final Four pick: Houston (+230)

🏆 Final Four & national championship picks

 Need tips for your bracket? Here are a few things to know about how to fill out a March Madness bracket. 

📅 March Madness schedule & key dates

• Selection Sunday: March 15
• First Four: March 17-18 (Dayton, Ohio)
• First round: March 19-20
• Second round: March 21-22
• Sweet 16: March 26-27
• Elite Eight: March 28-29
• Final Four: Saturday, April 4
• National championship game: Monday, April 6