🏀 March Madness East Region Preview: Bracket Predictions, Sleeper Picks & Best Bets

If you're looking for the region of death in this year's bracket, look no further than the East Region.

My March Madness East Region predictions center on No. 1 overall seed Duke, which enters as the national championship favorite but faces a gauntlet that includes UConn, Michigan State, Kansas, and St. John's before anyone cuts down nets in Indianapolis. Don't sleep on Louisville or UCLA as lower-ranked teams with legitimate Final Four upside in the toughest region in the field.

My March Madness East Region preview features my picks for every first-round matchup, upset rankings, and best bets to win the region.  

🏀 March Madness bracket previews: East | Midwest | West | South

📋 March Madness East Region bracket & first-round matchups

Odds via DraftKings as of Monday, March 16; all times listed in Eastern Time.

📊 Odds to win the East Region

Odds via DraftKings; see the latest Final Four odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

🔮 East Region predictions for every first-round matchup

Follow all of our college basketball analysis for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

🏀 Duke vs. Siena prediction

Duke (32-2) leads the nation with a 38.9-point adjusted efficiency margin, while superstar freshman Cameron Boozer is chasing the highest offensive rating in KenPom history. Even without Caleb Foster (foot) and Patrick Ngongba (foot), the Blue Devils boast a top-four offensive and defensive rating and look like the team to beat in this region. Siena (23-11) simply doesn't have the athletes to keep up in Round 1.

Pick to advance: Duke

🏀 Ohio State vs. TCU prediction

Ohio State (21-12) has the No. 17 offense in the country and wants to push the pace. TCU (22-11) has the No. 22 defense and wants to grind this into the mud. I'm siding with the defense: Jamie Dixon's tournament pedigree is strong, and TCU's ability to compress this into a low-possession rock fight should frustrate the Buckeyes' offense in a close win.

Pick to advance: TCU

🏀 St. John's vs. Northern Iowa prediction

St. John's (28-6) just demolished UConn by 20 points in the Big East final after winning the regular-season title - so why, exactly, are the Red Storm on the 5-seed line? Northern Iowa (23-12) will try to make this ugly with the slowest tempo in the tournament (62.4), and the Panthers' top-25 defense is legit. But UNI's offense ranks just 153rd nationally, and St John's defense is a borderline top-10 unit. I don't expect this to be close.

Pick to advance: St. John's

🏀 Kansas vs. Cal Baptist prediction

Kansas (23-10) enters the tournament with a top-10 defense and projected top pick in Darryn Peterson (19.9 PPG), though the Jayhawks have curiously been a better team with their future lottery pick on the sidelines. It likely won't matter against Cal Baptist (25-8), which is making its first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance after a dramatic WAC title game. The Lancers are physical and defensive-minded, but the talent gap is too wide for a program experiencing this stage for the first time.

Pick to advance: Kansas

🏀 Louisville vs. South Florida prediction

This game hinges on Louisville star Mikel Brown's availability. He missed time down the stretch with a back injury, including the entire ACC Tournament, but he's expected to play in his first NCAA Tournament. If he does, Louisville (23-10) is elite on both ends and has too much firepower for South Florida (25-8). USF won the AAC Tournament for its first NCAA bid since 2012 and will push the tempo in this one, but the Cardinals' full-strength roster should handle the pace and the pressure.

Pick to advance: Louisville

🏀 Michigan State vs. North Dakota State prediction

Tom Izzo is 41-17 in first-round tournament games, and Michigan State (25-7) is elite on both ends with the No. 13 defense and No. 24 offense. North Dakota State (27-7) won the Summit League but lacks the scoring punch to challenge Michigan State's defense. The Spartans should control this wire to wire.

Pick to advance: Michigan State

🏀 UCLA vs. UCF prediction

This is probably the closest game in the region by the numbers. UCLA (23-11) boasts a top-25 offense and a coaching advantage under Mick Cronin, who has been stellar as a 7-seed or worse. UCF (21-11) has a capable offense but a leaky defense that ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency and gives up too many easy looks against good offenses. I don't expect that to hold up against the Bruins in the first round.

Pick to advance: UCLA

🏀 UConn vs. Furman prediction

Dan Hurley has already led UConn (29-5) to two national titles in the last three seasons, and this year's team spreads the ball more than either of those championship teams with a comparable defense, too. The Huskies will need to generate more offense to make a deep run, but Furman (22-12) doesn't have the scoring punch to match blows for 40 minutes.

Pick to advance: UConn

🚨 East Region upset rankings

See all of our March Madness upset predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

💰 East Region predictions & best bets

See our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds.

📈 Live East Region odds

See the latest March Madness odds for every team's path to the Final Four.

🏀 More March Madness predictions

Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:

First-round matchups & previews

Bracket picks & odds analysis