🏀 March Madness Upset Predictions & Picks for 2026 NCAA Tournament

Everyone knows the best part of the NCAA Tournament is nailing your March Madness upset picks, which is what we aim to do once the bracket is revealed this Selection Sunday on March 15.

We'll be updating this page with our best March Madness upset predictions and picks throughout the tournament, starting with first-round underdog bets after the bracket drops. Below, you'll find everything you need to know about how March Madness upsets work and the historical trends that can help you spot this year's Cinderellas.

🏀 Best March Madness upset predictions and picks

We're still waiting for the March Madness bracket to be revealed on Selection Sunday (March 15), which is when millions will scour their brackets and target the best underdogs to pull off the upset and advance to the second round. That's when we'll break down all of our best March Madness upset picks, too.

📈 March Madness upset trends entering 2026 NCAA Tournament

Last year's tournament was historically chalk: all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four for only the second time ever, and No. 10 seed Arkansas was the only double-digit seed to reach the Sweet 16. Only four total upsets occurred by the NCAA's definition (a win by a team seeded five or more lines lower).

But that kind of top-heavy tournament tends to be followed by a correction. Since 1985, the tournaments with the fewest first-round upsets have often been followed by a rash of upsets in the following tournament. And the March Madness trends and seed history suggest that upsets are on the way this year.

The most common upsets in the NCAA Tournament first round are the 11-seed over the 6-seed and the 12-seed over the 5-seed. A 12-seed has won at least once in 34 of 40 tournaments played since 1985, while an 11-seed has reached the second round in every tournament since 2005.

Conference tournament performance is another signal. Teams that enter March Madness on a hot streak after a deep conference tournament run - even from a lower seed - tend to outperform their seeding. Florida rode an SEC Tournament title all the way to the 2025 national championship as an example from the top of the bracket, but the same dynamic applies to mid-majors and double-digit seeds.

💡 What is a March Madness upset?

A March Madness upset is when a lower-seeded team knocks off a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. The NCAA's official definition is a win by a team seeded five or more lines below its opponent — so a 12-seed beating a 5-seed counts, but a 9-seed over an 8-seed doesn't.

Upsets are what make March Madness the best event on the sports calendar. They're why you fill out a bracket, why you sweat a first-round game between two teams you've never watched, and why mid-major programs become household names overnight. From UMBC stunning Virginia in 2018 to Fairleigh Dickinson toppling Purdue in 2023, the tournament delivers at least a handful of stunners nearly every year.

For bettors, upset picks are focused on the team with the better price by the March Madness odds for that matchup. A team priced at +200 on the moneyline would return $200 in profit on a $100 bet with an outright win, which is why targeting underdogs is such a popular (and potentially profitable) strategy for March Madness betting.

🆚 History of 12 vs. 5 seed upsets in March Madness

Few March Madness upset predictions are as popular as the 12 vs. 5 first-round matchup, and many people aim to include at least one of these upsets in their annual March Madness bracket predictions.

A 12-seed has upset a 5-seed 57 times since the NCAA Tournament format expanded in 1985. The higher seed owns a 103-57 record in 5-12 matchups over that span, and at least one 12-seed has pulled off the upset in all but six of the last 40 tournaments.

We got two in both 2024 and 2025, while three 12-seeds pulled the upset during the 2019, 2014, and 2013 tournaments. Will 2026 continue that trend?

Every 12 vs. 5 upset since 2010