🏀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU Prediction, Parlay & Odds: Today's March Madness Picks
The NCAA Tournament First Four wraps up tonight with Miami (OH) and SMU battling for a No. 11 seed at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. SMU is trading as a 6.5-point favorite ahead of tipoff at 9:15 p.m. ET, airing on truTV.
My best Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction today backs the plucky mid-major to cover as a big underdog. Miami (OH)'s fifth-ranked scoring attack and elite 3-point shooting give them a real shot at keeping this one close as part of our March Madness predictions for the First Four. With SMU guard B.J. Edwards returning from an ankle injury, we break down the latest line movement and our best bets for this high-stakes clash.
🏀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU picks & odds: March Madness First Four
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH) +7 | -110 via bet365 | 1.1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 163.5 | -115 via FanDuel | 1.15u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Boopie Miller Over 20.5 points | +100 via bet365 | 1u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.25 units | Max profit: 3 units
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🏆 Who will win Miami (OH) vs. SMU?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking SMU to win this one by four points. SMU's high-octane offense should emerge with a narrow edge over a mediocre Miami defense that hasn't had to face a scoring unit of this caliber.
Score prediction: SMU 86, Miami (OH) 82
💰 Miami (OH) vs. SMU prediction & best bet
Miami +7 (-110)
My belief in the Redhawks keeping this close is the notion that Miami (OH), which averages 87.2 PPG, can score on an SMU defense that has allowed 77.6 PPG (256th in nation).
The Mustangs rank 174th in opposing 3-point percentage and could be susceptible to the Redhawks letting it fly. Miami (OH) makes 37.5% of its threes (21st) and averages 9.8 made threes per game (34th).
Miami (OH) is 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Several of the best sports betting sites have this line at Miami (OH) +6.5, and that's about as low as I'd play it.
🔥 Best Miami (OH) vs. SMU player prop bet
Boopie Miller Over 20.5 points (+100)
In analyzing Miami (OH)'s lack of defensive efficiency (156th in DRtg), I've settled on Boopie Miller as a scorer for SMU that should have a big day in this First Four matchup. The Redhawks rank 227th in opponent scoring average (76.3) despite not having played a Quad 1 game all year.
Miller has averaged 19.2 PPG while facing an ACC schedule and dropping 21 or more points in four of his last five games. He's seen a recent uptick in 3-point attempts, shooting eight or more in three straight games, boasting a pair of games in that span with five and seven made threes, respectively.
Miami allows opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3-point range (273rd in the nation) and should be susceptible to Miller's recent deep-ball usage to pace his scoring total.
🚀 Miami (OH) vs. SMU same-game parlay
I like both teams to pour on the points in this matchup, and I believe Miami can hit enough threes to cover the spread. SMU's Boopie Miller should feast against a Redhawk defense that hasn't seen many scorers of his ilk, correlating to the game total going Over in a narrow win for the Mustangs.
💵 Miami (OH) vs. SMU SGP picks
- Miami (OH) +7
- Over 164
- Boopie Miller Over 20.5 points
Best odds: +525 via bet365 (1u -> 5.25u)
💡 How I'm betting Miami (OH) vs. SMU: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I have all three of my picks for this game as four-star recommendations, as I see Miami using its fifth-ranked scoring attack in the nation (87.2 PPG) to put up a good fight, with SMU ultimately scoring plenty to help the total go Over.
I'm looking to stick to single-unit bets for the majority of March Madness, but will consider bumping the Boopie Miller prop to two units considering Miami's defense has allowed 76.3 PPG (227th in NCAA) against inferior competition than Miller typically faces.
📊 Live Miami (OH) vs. SMU odds: March Madness First Four
Miami opened as a 7.5-point underdog but has moved to +6.5 or +7 across our best sports betting apps as the public looks to back this polarizing mid-major. The total has come down slightly from its open at 164.5, which is a move that I'm looking to take advantage of between these two productive offenses.
📈 Miami (OH) vs. SMU betting trends
| Miami (OH) | Statistic | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| 31-1 | Record | 20-13 |
| 19-10 | ATS record | 14-18-1 |
| 19-10 | O/U record | 20-12-1 |
| 93th | KenPom ranking | 42nd |
| 116.8 (70th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 122.9 (26th) |
| 108.5 (156th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 104.8 (91st) |
📺 How to watch Miami (OH) vs. SMU: March Madness First Four
- Date: Wednesday, March 18
- Tipoff: 9:15 p.m. ET
- Location: UD Arena (Dayton, OH)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: March Madness Live
🏀 More March Madness predictions
Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:
First-round matchups & previews
| East Region | West Region | South Region | Midwest Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU vs. Ohio State (3/19) | High Point vs. Wisconsin (3/19) | PVAM vs. Lehigh (3/18) | Miami (OH) vs. SMU (3/18) |
| South Florida vs. Louisville (3/19) | Hawaii vs. Arkansas (3/19) | Troy vs. Nebraska (3/19) | Howard vs. Michigan (3/19) |
| Siena vs. Duke (3/19) | Texas vs. BYU (3/19) | McNeese vs. Vanderbilt (3/19) | Saint Louis vs. Georgia (3/19) |
| ND State vs. Michigan St. (3/19) | Kennesaw St. vs. Gonzaga (3/19) | VCU vs. UNC (3/19) | Santa Clara vs. Kentucky (3/20) |
| N. Iowa vs. St. John's (3/20) | LIU vs. Arizona (3/20) | Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (3/19) | Akron vs. Texas Tech (3/20) |
| UCF vs. UCLA (3/20) | Utah State vs. Villanova (3/20) | Penn vs. Illinois (3/19) | Wright St. vs. Virginia (3/20) |
| Cal Baptist vs. Kansas (3/20) | Queens vs. Purdue (3/20) | Idaho vs. Houston (3/19) | Tenn. State vs. Iowa State (3/20) |
| Furman vs. UConn (3/20) | Missouri vs. Miami (3/20) | Iowa vs. Clemson (3/20) | Hofstra vs. Alabama (3/20) |
| TBD vs. Florida (3/20) | TBD vs. Tennessee (3/20) |
Bracket picks & odds analysis
| Article type | Expert analysis |
|---|---|
| Bracket Picks | Expert Bracket Picks | AI Bracket Predictions | Sleepers & Value Picks | Upset Predictions |
| Region Previews | East | West | South | Midwest |
| Odds & Futures | Tournament Odds | Final Four Odds | MVP Odds | MVP Predictions |
| Betting Guides | March Madness Betting Guide | Rosters by State & Country | Coach ATS Index | Prop Bets Guide |
| Women's Tournament | Women's Predictions & Odds | Women's Odds & Favorites |
| NIT | NIT Predictions & Odds | NIT Odds & Favorites | Free Printable NIT Bracket |
| Pools & Strategy | Calcutta Picks & Rankings | What is a Calcutta? | Survivor Guide | What is a Survivor Pool? | How to Fill Out a Bracket |
❓ Miami (OH) vs. SMU FAQs
Who is the betting favorite for Miami (OH) vs. SMU?
SMU is a 6.5-point betting favorite tonight against Miami (Ohio).
What is the Over/Under for Miami (OH) vs. SMU?
The total for tonight's First Four game between Miami (Ohio) and SMU is set at 163.
How can I watch Miami (OH) vs. SMU?
The game airs live tonight at truTV on 9:15 p.m. ET. You can stream the game on the March Madness Live app.
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