🏀 Miami vs. Virginia Prediction: ACC Tournament Semifinal Odds & Picks (March 13)

It's chalk in the first semifinal of the ACC Tournament on Friday night as No. 3 seed Miami faces No. 2 seed Virginia at 7 p.m. from the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, N.C. (ESPN). 

My Miami vs. Virginia prediction backs the Cavaliers as a 3.5-point betting favorite, as their only loss in the last 13 games is to No. 1 Duke. Virginia also flashed a dominant defensive inside presence in yesterday's win over Louisville, which is why I expect it to limit Miami power forward Malik Reneau.

Stay atop all today's action with Rob Paul's college basketball conference tournament guide.  

🏀 Miami vs. Virginia picks & odds: ACC Tournament Semifinal (March 13)

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.71 units

💰 Miami vs. Virginia prediction & best bet

Virginia -3.5 (-110)

Miami prefers to eschew 3-point attempts and bludgeon its opponents inside, as it gets the 14th-highest percentage of its points from 2-point range. But Virginia is the perfect foil for that, allowing the fifth-lowest 2-point percentage among D-I teams.

Virginia also averages 11.6 fastbreak points per game, and had nine such points in the first half alone yesterday. That willingness to run and show token full court pressure combined with a deep bench that plays 35% of the team’s minutes bodes well for its chances of success with no days off.

Score prediction: Virginia 73 - Miami 68

🔥 Best Miami vs. Virginia player prop bet

Malik Reneau Under 17.5 points (-112)

Malik Reneau entered the ACC Tournament averaging 11.9 points in the paint per game, which was second in the league only to Cameron Boozer (12.6). But it will be difficult for Reneau and the Hurricanes to score inside consistently given Virginia’s imposing defensive presence inside.

Cavaliers center Ugonna Onyenso had eight blocks in yesterday’s win over NC State, which is tied for the second most ever in an ACC Tournament game. Thus, I am selling high on Reneau after he scored 16 points on an efficient 7-of-10 shooting in the regular-season matchup.

Miami as a whole shot just 46.5% from 2-point range in the loss to Virginia, 11% lower than its season average. And Reneau, having gone without a 3-point field goal in four of the last seven games, lowers his ceiling for points in this difficult matchup. 

🚀 Miami vs. Virginia same-game parlay

While this year's Virginia squad plays a lot different than the snail-paced Tony Bennett teams, the Cavaliers have still cashed the Under in 19 of their 32 games. That is why this same-game parlay with the Under and Virginia's point spread plays nicely together, along with the Under on Reneau's points considering he was riddled with foul trouble (four fouls) in the regular season matchup.

While FanDuel offers a slightly better total for Under backers (O/U 144.5), I am making this same-game parlay wager at bet365, as its Reneau points total is a full point higher than FanDuel's O/U 16.5. 

💡 How I'm betting Miami vs. Virginia

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four conference tournament games, so I like Virginia -3.5 as my top play even though the Hurricanes also covered half their games against ranked opponents this year. But Miami also gets significantly less production from its bench (288th in bench minutes), so I may get involved in some live ATS wagering, particularly if the game remains close early.

📊 Live Miami vs. Virginia odds: ACC Tournament Semifinal

Only one top sports betting site (bet365) opened Virginia -3.5 on Thursday night, but it quickly aligned with the rest of the market at -4.5. However, most sportsbooks have lowered back to the original number overnight despite near 50/50 betting splits on the point spread. It would likely take serious sharp action closer to tipoff to go to back to -4.5, especially after Virginia only beat Miami by three points at home three weeks ago.

The total has a wider range with the low end of the market at 143.5 and the top end at 144.5. As of Thursday night, the only sportsbook to deviate from its opening number was DraftKings, who lowered from 144.5 to 143.5.

📈 Miami vs. Virginia betting trends

📺 How to watch Miami vs. Virginia: ACC Tournament Semifinal

• Date: Friday, March 13
• Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
• Location: Spectrum Center (Charlotte, N.C.)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN+