🏀 Michigan vs. Iowa Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 5)

With the Big Ten Tournament just around the corner, No. 3 Michigan heads southwest to take on a frisky Iowa team that's home to one of the country's most potent scorers.

As part of my college basketball predictions, my Michigan vs. Iowa prediction expects the Hawkeyes to force the Wolverines into a high-scoring game. Michigan is an 8.5-point betting favorite on the road for tonight's 8 p.m. ET tip (Peacock) from Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa.

🏀 Michigan vs. Iowa picks & odds today: March 5

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.73 units

💰 Michigan vs. Iowa prediction & best bet

Over 145.5 (-110)

Michigan hasn't seen an offense like Iowa's, with its plodding pace and hyper-efficient approach. Ben McCollum's attack is slow (No. 357 in tempo), but with Bennett Stirtz leading the charge, the Hawkeyes are one of the best Over bets in the Big Ten (17-12).

Iowa is top 25 in field-goal percentage (49.5%), and Stirtz is third in the conference in PPG (20.5). However, Iowa's lack of size will be a problem on the defensive end.

Michigan's starting front court averages 6-foot-9, and Iowa has trouble with length inside the arc, allowing the fourth-highest 2-point percentage in Big Ten play (56.1%).

Score prediction: Michigan 80, Iowa 73

🔥 Best Michigan vs. Iowa player prop bet

Bennett Stirtz Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-110)

From Northwest Missouri State to Drake to Iowa, Stirtz has been the lead guard for McCollum at every stop. He's turned into must-watch TV with his unlimited range, and it's continued on the big stage of the Big Ten, with him hitting 2.8 threes per game in conference play.

This is his last home game playing for the coach who turned him into a projected top 20 pick, so Stirtz should have the green light all night. 

I expect him to take advantage of a Michigan back court that has been its Achilles heel this season, especially without L.J. Cason.

🚀 Michigan vs. Iowa same-game parlay

If Iowa is going to keep this game close, it's going to need to be as efficient as ever on offense and turn this into a bit of a shootout. Stirtz has been on fire in Big Ten play, scoring 20-plus in 10 of his last 12 conference matchups.

💡 How I'm betting Michigan vs. Iowa

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

Even though Iowa isn't ranked, this is the best high-major game on the schedule tonight. The Hawkeyes are a different beast at home, with a 15-2 record. I'm putting multiple units on this game, especially with the matchup that Stirtz has against an iffy Michigan backcourt down its top backup.

Although I have more confidence in the Over, I'd take Iowa to cover at +8.5 or better, but would avoid it if the line moves further in the Hawkeyes' direction. With that said, the game total is a must-bet for me at any number below 147.5. And I'm on the Over on Stirtz's threes at any price longer than -125 ... he's hit at least three triples in six of his last nine.

📊 Live Michigan vs. Iowa odds

Michigan opened as a 9.5-point betting favorite on the road at our best March Madness betting sites, with the line sitting between -8 and -8.5 at most books. I don't expect it to see much more movement, given the Wolverines' dominance this season. Meanwhile, the game total has bounced around a ton since opening at 145.5. I'd expect it to jump up to 147.5 by tip.

📈 Michigan vs. Iowa betting trends

📺 How to watch Michigan vs. Iowa

• Date: Thursday, March 5
• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
• TV: Peacock