🏀 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 7)
The first NCAA Tournament ticket will be punched tonight in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament final when Morehead State and Tennessee State face off after splitting the two regular-season meetings. Tipoff from Ford Center in Evansville, Ind., is set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2).
The Tigers are the 3.5-point betting favorite, and my Morehead State vs. Tennessee State prediction backs them to earn their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1994 with a cover in tonight's championship. I offer a score prediction and game prop bet as I look to continue a profitable 8-1 run with my last nine college basketball game prediction pieces.
Prepare for the next week of college basketball with Rob Paul's conference tournament guide.
🏀 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State predictions: Ohio Valley Conference Championship Game
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Bet type | Prediction | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Game prediction | Tennessee State -3.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over/Under total | Over 149.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | .5u -> 0.46u | ⭐⭐ |
| Game prop bet | Tennessee State first half spread -1.5 (-122 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.15 units
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💰 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State prediction & best bet
Tennessee State -3.5 (-115)
Even though Morehead State is amid the conference’s longest winning streak at eight games, Tennessee State had the shortest pre-tournament odds (+155 via FanDuel) and was the only team with a price better than +350.
Morehead State has won this tournament twice in the last five years, but this year’s team returned less than 20% of the minutes from last year’s roster. Thus, past success shouldn’t creep into this analysis, but instead, I am backing the team with the conference player of the year (Aaron Nkrumah) and Tennessee State to cover and stay undefeated ATS at neutral sites.
Score prediction: Tennessee State 78, Morehead State 73
🔥 Best Morehead State vs. Tennessee State game prop bet
Tennessee State first half spread -1.5 (-122)
In addition to backing Tennessee State on the full game spread, I am making a first half spread wager a confident four-star play.
The Tigers have won the first half in each of the last three meetings with the Eagles, as they led by 10 at the half in the first meeting and overcame a 10-point deficit to lead by one at halftime in the second meeting.
Morehead State hasn’t led at the half in two of its last three games. And the fact that the Tigers are the league’s best team at taking care of the basketball (14.9% turnover rate) while facing an Eagles defense that forces turnovers at the league’s ninth-lowest rate suggests there should be plenty of clean possessions early for the neutral site favorites.
🚀 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State same-game parlay
If Tennessee State can get off to another strong start, just as it has each of the last three times it faced Morehead State, then pairing the Tigers' full game and first half spreads work nicely together. These two teams also combined for 205 points in a Tennessee State 105-100 overtime victory earlier this season, and the Over of 149.5 is a reasonable number if the Tigers' top-40 tempo again wins out in this matchup.
💵 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State SGP picks
- Tennessee State -3.5 (-120)
- Over 149.5 (-110)
- Tennessee State first half spread -1.5 (-122)
Best odds: +325 via FanDuel (1u -> 3.25u)
💡 How I'm betting Morehead State vs. Tennessee State
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
While my two spread wagers (first half and full game) are one-unit plays, I am only backing the Over as a half-unit bet. The pressure of a conference championship game with an NCAA Tournament bid on the line always brings added pressure, and 21 of Morehead State's last 23 conference night games have produced a total of 146 or fewer points.
📊 Live Morehead State vs. Tennessee State odds
While all of the top March Madness betting sites are in unison with an opening number of Tennessee State -3.5, that number could evaporate and move to -4 or higher based on the juice most commonly trading at -115 or higher on the favorites. The O/U of 149.5 projects to be the more stable line throughout the day, especially since the Over and Under have each cashed five times in the last 10 meetings between these teams.
📈 Morehead State vs. Tennessee State betting trends
| Morehead State | Statistic | Tennessee State |
|---|---|---|
| 20-12 | W-L record | 22-9 |
| 18-11 | ATS record | 17-11 |
| 15-14 | O/U record | 12-16 |
| 5-0 | Last 5 games | 5-0 |
📺 How to watch Morehead State vs. Tennessee State
- Date: Saturday. March 7
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Center (Evansville, Ind.)
- TV: ESPN2
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