🏀 Who Will Be Next UNC Basketball Coach? Latest Odds & Top Candidates With Lloyd Out

Just when it looked like Tommy Lloyd could be one loss away from taking over as the next head coach at North Carolina, the Arizona coach signed an extension to remain with the Wildcats on the literal eve of the Final Four in Indianapolis.

That leaves Chicago Bulls coach Billy Donovan as the overwhelming favorite by the next UNC head coach odds to take over for the Tar Heels after they hired Hubert Davis following a five-year run that ended with a historic collapse in the NCAA Tournament. Donovan shot up to nearly 70% across prediction market apps but fell back down over the course of Friday evening as names like Dusty May and Grant McCasland started to climb.

With the Tar Heels expected to hire outside of the "Carolina family" for the first time in over 70 years, I'm updating this article regularly with the top candidates, updated Kalshi prices, and my prediction to take the reins in Chapel Hill.

📊 Next UNC head coach odds: Who will be hired as North Carolina HC?

From the beginning of UNC's head coaching search, Lloyd has felt like the name to watch. He was reportedly the top target among North Carolina's decision-makers, according to The Athletic, and the Tar Heels were willing to make him the second-highest paid coach in the sport before he ultimately returned to Arizona.

Lloyd was the favorite for this job as recently as Thursday, when he featured a 43% chance to be the next UNC coach at Kalshi. His decision to stay with the Wildcats threw this market back into flux, with Donovan rising as the obvious favorite and a handful of other top names - like Grant McCasland, Dusty May, Mark Byington, and Ben McCollum - thrust into contention again after losing steam early on.

With over $3 million in trading volume so far, here are the full Kalshi percentages as of Friday, April 3, with the conversion to American odds via our odds converter and the price to buy "yes" shares at Kalshi.

💰 Favorites to be next UNC coach

With Lloyd out of the picture, Donovan is clearly the top choice to be UNC's next head coach in the prediction markets. The reporting around this job search suggests he'll be in the mix, but he isn't the only one in consideration for the role:

Billy Donovan, Chicago Bulls (53%)

This marks the first time that any candidate has been priced higher than 50% to be the next coach at North Carolina, which speaks to how much traction there appears to be in the reporting around this potential marriage.

Donovan has been rumored as a candidate for every top coaching job since he left his post at Florida in 2015, and his pedigree at the collegiate ranks is clearly unmatched by any of the potential candidates for this job. The question is whether his last decade in the NBA translates to the modern game - and if the timeline is even workable with the the transfer portal opening on April 7 and the Bulls' season ending on April 12.

Grant McCasland, Texas Tech (14%)

McCasland is the biggest riser on the board since Lloyd's extension, jumping from 4% to 14% in a matter of hours. The Texas Tech coach has been a rumored candidate in this search since the beginning, and his manageable buyout makes him a solid option given his history as a program-builder, but I'm not sure I buy the initial movement without better reporting to justify it.

Mark Byington, Vanderbilt (12%)

This is the name that won't go away, even after the Vanderbilt coach signed an extension immediately following his team's gut-wrenching loss to Nebraska in the second round. The former UNC-Wilmington guard has a loose connection to the area, though he's not exactly a member of the "Carolina family" in a way that would give him a leg up. I don't see the momentum that others do, but the market movement is something to watch.

Dusty May, Michigan (11%)

Hiring away May from Michigan amid a Final Four run would be the type of home-run hire that UNC brass was hoping to pull off with Lloyd - which ended with them getting leveraged into a cushy extension by the Arizona coach. May publicly dismissed the rumors ahead of the Final Four, but UNC is reportedly ramping up its efforts to lure the coveted head coach from Ann Arbor to Chapel Hill ... and I'm intrigued.

📈 More UNC head coach candidates

This market has been incredibly volatile since Davis was fired in March, and we've already seen candidates that were once considered "ruled out" see their probability jump in the prediction markets. With that said, here are some candidates to watch out for:

• Ben McCollum (6%) - McCollum boasts one of the best win percentages ever in his two seasons as a D-1 head coach, but he's publicly refuted interest in leaving Iowa. This would be a great hire for UNC - it just seems unlikely he takes the gig.
• Nate Oats (6%) - Oats has the on-court resume to rival some of the top candidates in the field, but the Alabama coach carries off-court baggage and a hefty buyout.
• T.J. Otzelberger (2%) - Another strong candidate on paper, Otzelberger has already publicly recommitted to Iowa State, so I wouldn't count on this happening.
• Scott Drew (2%) - The Baylor coach turned down the Kentucky job in 2024 after building Baylor into a national champion. If he said no to Big Blue, he’s likely saying no to UNC.
• Todd Golden (2%) - Like Oats, Golden has a resume worth hiring but comes with off-court baggage that reportedly has the Tar Heels looking in another direction.

⏳ When will UNC hire next head coach?

In a perfect world, the Tar Heels would hire the best candidate available with no regard for timelines or scheduling conflicts - but that's not how college basketball works. The transfer portal is set to open on Tuesday, and UNC would be best served to have its next head coach in place before then.

Here are a few key dates that could impact North Carolina's coaching search:

Saturday, April 4 (Final Four) - Michigan coach Dusty May, one of UNC's top reported targets, faces Arizona and former top candidate Tommy Lloyd in Saturday's Final Four. If Michigan loses, could May be lured away from the Wolverines? It seems unlikely, but we should know soon if there's any smoke to the rumors.

Monday, April 6 (national championship) - The worst-case scenario for UNC brass, if it has May circled as its top target, would be a Michigan run to the championship game. That would likely delay North Carolina's hiring process until at least Tuesday, which is the start of the transfer portal, and it's tough to see May leaving right after winning a title.

Tuesday, April 7 (transfer portal opens) - This is the most critical deadline for UNC's head coaching search. The Tar Heels will certainly want to sort out their coaching staff ahead of the transfer portal window opening to both court other teams' stars and prevent their own top players - like star forward Henri Veesaar and incoming recruits Dylan Mingo and Maximo Adams - from finding a new home this offseason.

Sunday, April 12 (NBA regular season ends) - If the Tar Heels haven't hired a coach by this point, they're in big trouble, but they could find themselves running out the clock until Donovan's last game with the Bulls. If he's the front-runner but doesn't want to bail on his team before the season ends, this could be a date to circle on the calendar.

🔮 Who will be the next UNC head coach?

I had Tommy Lloyd circled as my pick for UNC's next coach until Friday, when he shocked the entire college basketball world by turning down one of the best jobs in the sport.

Right now, Donovan is the obvious favorite to be North Carolina's next coach, but the latest reports suggest that he isn't necessarily the Tar Heels' top pick - that would be Dusty May, who seems unlikely to take the job but could reconsider it if Michigan loses on Saturday. If I had to guess right now, I'd lean Donovan, but I wouldn't be shocked by May, McCasland, or perhaps a name on nobody's radar who might leave their current post.

✅ Prediction: Billy Donovan to be UNC's next coach

📜 UNC head coaching history

North Carolina has had just six head coaches since 1952 - a span that includes six national championships and 21 Final Fours. The Tar Heels’ next hire is expected to break a nearly 75-year tradition of promoting from within the “Carolina Family.”

Before McGuire, the Tar Heels had 13 head coaches who combined for one trip to the Final Four (Ben Carnevale, 1946) and zero national championships. That all changed with McGuire, who led UNC to a 32-0 season and first national title in 1957. He was the last North Carolina head coach who didn't previously play or coach (or both) for the school.

❓ Next UNC head coach FAQs

Who are the top candidates to be the next UNC basketball head coach?

Billy Donovan is the clear favorite to be the next UNC coach according to the latest prediction market prices at Kalshi, followed by Grant McCasland and Dusty May.

Who is leading the UNC coaching search?

Outgoing athletic director Bubba Cunningham and incoming AD Steve Newmark are co-leading the search. UNC has hired executive search firm Turnkey ZRG to assist along with an advisory board of former players, coaches, and supporters. The UNC System president must give final written approval on any contract.

Will UNC hire outside the "Carolina Family"?

All signs point to yes. Every UNC head coach since 1961 had previous ties to the program: Dean Smith, Bill Guthridge, Matt Doherty, Roy Williams, and Hubert Davis were all either former players or assistants. With no viable internal candidate, this will likely be the first outside hire in nearly 75 years.

When will UNC name a new head coach?

No official timeline has been announced for the UNC head coaching hire, but the transfer portal opens on April 7, so we can expect a hire to be finalized before then.

Why was Hubert Davis fired?

Davis was hired in 2021 and led the Tar Heels to a national championship appearance in his first season, but UNC suffered two of its four all-time first-round losses in his five seasons - the most recent coming when North Carolina blew a 19-point lead to VCU in the biggest blown lead in the first round in NCAA Tournament history.

How many national championships has UNC basketball won?

North Carolina has won six men's basketball national championships: 1957 (Frank McGuire), 1982 and 1993 (Dean Smith), and 2005, 2009, and 2017 (Roy Williams). The Tar Heels have also appeared in the Final Four an NCAA-record 21 times.

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where users buy and sell contracts on real-world events, including coaching hires. Unlike a traditional sportsbook, Kalshi prices contracts as percentages representing the market's implied probability of an outcome. A candidate at 33% means the market believes there's roughly a one-in-three chance they get the job.