🏀 North Carolina vs. Duke Prediction & Odds: College Basketball Picks Today (March 7)

Arguably the greatest rivalry in college basketball resumes to conclude the regular season as No. 1 Duke hosts No. 17 North Carolina. The Blue Devils look to finish a perfect 15-0 at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, N.C. in a game that tips at 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Top-ranked Duke is a 16.5-point betting favorite.

While that may seem like a big point spread in a rivalry game of this magnitude, my North Carolina vs. Duke prediction expects the Blue Devils to get revenge in a big way for a 71-68 loss at Chapel Hill on Feb. 7. Along with my score prediction, I also offer my best player prop bet for Duke's Isaiah Evans, who has been one of the hottest shooters in the country over the last month.

🏀 North Carolina vs. Duke picks & odds today: March 7

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 3.47 units

💰 North Carolina vs. Duke prediction & best bet

Duke -16.5 (-106)

North Carolina allowed five opponents to shoot 50% from 3-point range heading into the first meeting with the Blue Devils. While Duke “only” shot 36.8% from beyond the arc, it still should have beaten UNC after leading by nine with under eight minutes left.

The Tar Heels won’t have Caleb Wilson for this rematch, who torched Duke for a team-high 23 points on 8-of-12 shooting. 

While UNC is 1-2 on the road with losses by 33 combined points in its last three, Duke has covered its last five, four of which it has beaten the spread by 16.5-plus points.

Score prediction: Duke 83, North Carolina 63

🔥 Best North Carolina vs. Duke player prop bet

Isaiah Evans to make 3+ 3-pointers (+162)

Entering the first meeting between these teams, Duke was shooting just 31.6% from 3-point range in 10 league games. At that time, only Cameron Boozer was above 35% from beyond the arc in league play.

Now the Blue Devils have skyrocketed to the fourth-best 3-point shooting percentage in ACC play (35.8%), thanks in large part to Isaiah Evans’ hot streak.

Evans has made at least three 3-pointers in six of the last seven games, while connecting on 25 of his 53 attempts in that span (47.1%). He has shot at least 44% from beyond the arc in each of his last three home games, so I am buying low on this number after he was just 1-for-4 from 3-point range in the loss to North Carolina.

🚀 North Carolina vs. Duke same-game parlay

Duke has won six of its last seven games by 13-plus points, and is covering the spread by an average of 17.5 points in its last five. A red-hot offense is one of the biggest reasons for that, as the Blue Devils rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency during their seven-game winning streak. That is why the spread, the full-game Over, and the Over on Isaiah Evans' 3-pointers made all work well together as part of a three-leg parlay.

💡 How I'm betting North Carolina vs. Duke

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.

All three wagers for this North Carolina vs. Duke tilt are one-unit plays. That includes backing Duke and its big point spread, even though the teams have split their last 14 matchups, with half of those games being decided by six or fewer points. But the lopsided results have mostly gone Duke's way, as it has won three of the last four head-to-head matchups decided by double digits.

The traditional O/U at FanDuel for Evans' 3-pointers made is 1.5, with the Over juiced to -194 (65.99% implied odds). That is too steep for my liking, which is why I am playing his alternate total at +162 odds for a much better payout. 

📊 Live North Carolina vs. Duke odds

Duke initially opened as a 15.5-point betting favorite at several of our best March Madness betting sites. But it appears the verification that Caleb Wilson will miss this game (it was rumored he would give it a go if practice went well) after he suffered a broken thumb this week attracted further support on the Blue Devils, who are as high as -17.5.

The O/U has remained relatively firm at 144.5 (it ticked up to 145 at Caesars) despite 60% of the early wagers backing the Over.

📈 North Carolina vs. Duke betting trends

📺 How to watch North Carolina vs. Duke

• Date: Saturday, March 7
• Tipoff: 6:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, N.C.)
• TV: ESPN