🏀 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's Prediction & Picks: March Madness First Round (March 20)
Ben Jacobson has coached a disciplined style of basketball at No. 12 Northern Iowa for 20 years. My Northern Iowa vs. St. John's prediction can't go as far as to take the outright upset, but in the program's first March Madness appearance in a decade, the Panthers should present a challenge to No. 5 St. John's.
The action tips off from Viejas Arena in San Diego, Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET (CBS). St. John's is a 9.5-point betting favorite as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa +9.5 | -104 via FanDuel | 1.04u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 131.5 | -108 via DraftKings | 1.08u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds | +102 via FanDuel | 1u -> 1.02u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3.12 units | Max profit: 3.02 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Northern Iowa vs. St. John's?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
I'm taking St. John's to win this one by seven points. The Red Storm's defensive attributes outclass even Northern Iowa's sturdy defensive play, pairing it with a more stable offense and an overall rebounding edge to pull away in this gritty matchup.
Score prediction: St. John's 67, Northern Iowa 60
💰 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's prediction & best bet
Northern Iowa +9.5 (-104)
I'd love to pick a trendy outright upset, because Northern Iowa's elite defensive efficiency (24th) against a St. John's team that struggles to find its shot is a recipe to make things interesting. UNI's brutal free-throw shooting (69.7%, 279th) keeps me from fully entertaining the idea.
But to keep it close? Absolutely. St. John's doesn't shoot the three well (33.2%, 215th), and it's not especially efficient on two-point field goals (51.6%, 190th). That provides an opening for Northern Iowa, who pairs sturdy defense with the third-slowest adjusted tempo in the country. UNI wants a rock fight, and St. John's may not have the necessary characteristics to avoid one.
🔥 Best Northern Iowa vs. St. John's player prop bet
Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds (+102)
We like Zuby Ejiofor to make his mark on the glass in this matchup, although the trends suggest he'll have to outpace his 3.9 defensive rebounds per game to clear his line of 7.5 boards at FanDuel. Since UNI is virtually useless on the offensive glass (19.8%, 356th), I expect that he can make that happen.
Ejiofor will have to work for it on the offensive glass to cut through against a disciplined defensive rebounding unit (75.5%, 31th), but that's his strength, averaging 3.3 offensive rebounds per game. St. John's averages nearly seven more rebounds per game than the Panthers.
Ejiofor logged nine or more rebounds in two of his three Big East tournament games.
🚀 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's same-game parlay
I see Northern Iowa slowing the pace to limit possessions and keeping it close given St. John's shot-making concerns. That correlates with the Under, which had been a strong trend for both teams this season. Ejiofor's rebounding should stand out due to the inefficient shooting we expect from both sides.
💵 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's SGP picks
- Northern Iowa +9.5
- Under 131.5
- Zuby Ejiofor Over 7.5 rebounds
Best odds: +575 via bet365 (0.5u -> 2.87u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 9, 2026.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-16-1 | -13.14 units ❌ | -65.7% ❌ |
| Spread | 0-5 | -5 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
| Over/Under | 2-2-1 | -0.10 units ❌ | -1.9% ❌ |
| Player props | 1-3 | -2.05 units ❌ | -51.2% ❌ |
| Parlays | 0-5 | -5 units ❌ | -100% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Northern Iowa vs. St. John's: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
I've rarely bumped up my units on any one game during March Madness, but I'll be tempted to add an additional sprinkle as this game approaches if I've been on a heater leading into Friday night. UNI should be too disciplined to let St. John's overwhelm it, so I like the correlated angle between the game total going Under and the Panthers showing fight as an underdog.
📊 Live Northern Iowa vs. St. John's odds: March Madness First Round
This line has moved from St. John's -11.5 at open down to -9.5 across most of the best sports betting sites, indicating a general belief in Northern Iowa to keep it respectable. After opening at 132.5, the total has fallen to 131.5 across our top sportsbooks. I could envision additional movement in that direction, but if it pushes back upward, we'll like exploiting our read of this matchup even more.
📈 Northern Iowa vs. St. John's betting trends
| Northern Iowa | Statistic | St. John's |
|---|---|---|
| 23-12 | Record | 28-6 |
| 20-14 | ATS record | 20-12-1 |
| 14-20 | O/U record | 12-21 |
| 71st | KenPom ranking | 17th |
| 110.0 (153rd) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 120.0 (44th) |
| 98.2 (24th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 94.2 (12th) |
📺 How to watch Northern Iowa vs. St. John's: March Madness First Round
- Date: Friday, March 20
- Tipoff: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Location: Viejas Arena (San Diego)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: March Madness Live
Related Articles
