🏀 Penn vs. Illinois Prediction: March Madness Picks & Odds for Round 1 (March 19)
No. 14 Penn was one of the most surprising conference tournament champions, winning two games as an underdog to earn its March Madness berth. But No. 3 Illinois awaits on Thursday at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C., and tipoff is set for 9:25 p.m. ET (TNT).
My best Penn vs. Illinois prediction backs the Fighting Illini to win in a rout as part of our March Madness predictions. I'm also riding TJ Power's hot hand from deep after a historic Ivy League Tournament performance.
🏀 Penn vs. Illinois picks & odds: March Madness First Round
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS/ML pick | Illinois -24.5 (-110 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Under 150.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 0.5u -> 0.46u | ⭐⭐ |
| Player prop pick | TJ Power Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.87u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.24 units
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🏆 Who will win Penn vs. Illinois?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Illinois was on track to secure a No. 2 seed before falling in its opening Big Ten Tournament game against Wisconsin. Boasting one of the nation's top offenses all season, they should overwhelm a Penn squad that has never been recognized for its scoring ability.
Score prediction: Illinois 88, Penn 60
💰 Penn vs. Illinois prediction & best bet
Illinois -24.5 (-110)
Illinois has struggled recently, dropping four of their last nine games, but that shouldn't prevent the Fighting Illini from handling a Penn team that became an afterthought in the Ivy League Tournament after losing top scorer Ethan Roberts to concussion symptoms.
Penn had a big advantage on the sideline in the Ivy finals in Fran McCaffery who went 5-1 on the Friday-Saturday back-to-backs with no rest while Yale was 1-4. This is obviously a much different scenario with three days to prepare, and the Quakers offense that was 283rd offensively from Jan. 24 to Sunday will not keep up with Illinois.
🔥 Best Penn vs. Illinois player prop bet
TJ Power Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115)
TJ Power went over this projected total with four 3-pointers in the first half of the Ivy League Championship. His 44-point effort shouldn’t be overlooked, as it was the first even 30-point performance in the Ivy Tournament since Bryce Aiken dropped 38 in 2019.
Power is playing to his true potential after two different ACC stops at Duke and Virginia. I expect McCaffery will continue to ride Power’s hot hand, as the forward’s 26 field goal attempts compared to the rest of the team’s 38 were enough to overcome regular season champion Yale.
Instead of backing Power’s overall point total, I am focused just on his 3-pointers, as the Fighting Illini defense allows the 38th-highest percentage of points to opponents to come from beyond the arc.
🚀 Penn vs. Illinois same-game parlay
For this same-game parlay to work, I am banking on Illinois to come out scorching like it has for most of the season when it was second in the Big Ten in scoring at 84.4 points per game. If TJ Power is again one of Penn's lone sources of offense, that bodes well for the full-game Under and his Over on 3-pointers made to cash as well.
💵 Penn vs. Illinois SGP picks
- Illinois -24.5 (-116)
- Under 150.5 (-116)
- TJ Power Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-115)
Best odds: +548 via bet365 (1u -> 5.48u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units ✅ | 21.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units ❌ | -57.8% ❌ |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units ✅ | 79.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
While I feel confident in Illinois' ability to cover even if TJ Power goes superhuman from 3-point range again, I was torn on what to do with the total.
Illinois could be responsible for cashing most of the Over by itself if scores 90-plus for the ninth time this season. But a blowout late could mean two completely different things for the O/U, that Illinois lets its guard down defensively, or takes its foot off the gas offensively and slows tempo. Either way, I'm only investing a half-unit on the total because of that uncertainty.
📊 Live Penn vs. Illinois odds: March Madness First Round
The best sports betting sites were split with opening numbers of either -23 or -23.5, but all have unanimously aligned at -24.5 as of Monday afternoon.
We also seem to be settling into a comfortable number for the total, as the Over ballooned from an opening low of 148 all the way up to 150.5, before buyback appeared on the Under and brought it into the 149.5-150 range at most sportsbooks. I am backing the Under of 150.5 at bet365 before that vanishes too.
📈 Penn vs. Illinois betting trends
| Penn | Statistic | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| 18-11 | Record | 24-8 |
| 19-9 | ATS record | 17-15 |
| 7-21 | O/U record | 13-19 |
| 150th | KenPom ranking | 7th |
| 107.4 (204th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 131.2 (2nd) |
| 105.9 (111th) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 99.1 (28th) |
📺 How to watch Penn vs. Illinois: March Madness First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 9:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, S.C.)
- TV: TNT
- Streaming: Max
🏀 More March Madness predictions
Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:
First-round matchups & previews
| East Region | West Region | South Region | Midwest Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU vs. Ohio State (3/19) | High Point vs. Wisconsin (3/19) | PVAM vs. Lehigh (3/18) | Miami (OH) vs. SMU (3/18) |
| South Florida vs. Louisville (3/19) | Hawaii vs. Arkansas (3/19) | Troy vs. Nebraska (3/19) | Howard vs. Michigan (3/19) |
| Siena vs. Duke (3/19) | Texas vs. BYU (3/19) | McNeese vs. Vanderbilt (3/19) | Saint Louis vs. Georgia (3/19) |
| ND State vs. Michigan St. (3/19) | Kennesaw St. vs. Gonzaga (3/19) | VCU vs. UNC (3/19) | Santa Clara vs. Kentucky (3/20) |
| N. Iowa vs. St. John's (3/20) | LIU vs. Arizona (3/20) | Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (3/19) | Akron vs. Texas Tech (3/20) |
| UCF vs. UCLA (3/20) | Utah State vs. Villanova (3/20) | Penn vs. Illinois (3/19) | Wright St. vs. Virginia (3/20) |
| Cal Baptist vs. Kansas (3/20) | Queens vs. Purdue (3/20) | Idaho vs. Houston (3/19) | Tenn. State vs. Iowa State (3/20) |
| Furman vs. UConn (3/20) | Missouri vs. Miami (3/20) | Iowa vs. Clemson (3/20) | Hofstra vs. Alabama (3/20) |
| TBD vs. Florida (3/20) | TBD vs. Tennessee (3/20) |
Bracket picks & odds analysis
| Article type | Expert analysis |
|---|---|
| Bracket Picks | Expert Bracket Picks | AI Bracket Predictions | Sleepers & Value Picks | Upset Predictions |
| Region Previews | East | West | South | Midwest |
| Odds & Futures | Tournament Odds | Final Four Odds | MVP Odds | MVP Predictions |
| Betting Guides | March Madness Betting Guide | Rosters by State & Country | Coach ATS Index | Prop Bets Guide |
| Women's Tournament | Women's Predictions & Odds | Women's Odds & Favorites |
| NIT | NIT Predictions & Odds | NIT Odds & Favorites | Free Printable NIT Bracket |
| Pools & Strategy | Calcutta Picks & Rankings | What is a Calcutta? | Survivor Guide | What is a Survivor Pool? | How to Fill Out a Bracket |
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