🏀 Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction Tonight: MAAC Championship Odds & Picks (March 10)
Our Siena vs. Merrimack prediction tonight sees a rock fight on tap for the MAAC Championship Game. Tipoff from Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, N.J., is set for 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Merrimack enters as a 3.5-point betting favorite.
Weβre expecting a low-scoring affair and are skeptical of the recent scoring outburst by Siena guard Justice Shoats, seeing a chance to capitalize on the inflated betting line.
π Siena vs. Merrimack picks & odds: MAAC Championship (March 10)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack -3.5 | -110 via FanDuel | 1.1u -> 1u | βββ |
| Under 124.5 | -105 via FanDuel | 1.05u -> 1u | ββββ |
| Justice Shoats Under 14.5 points | -105 via FanDuel | 1.05u -> 1u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 3.2 units | Max profit: 3 units
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π° Siena vs. Merrimack prediction & best bet
Our college basketball conference tournament guide features everything you need to know ahead of Selection Sunday.
Under 124.5 (-105)
We're betting on a sluggish championship game dominated by defense and methodical half-court basketball. Siena and Merrimack run two of the slowest paces in the nation, with both teams sitting outside the top 320 teams in adjusted tempo.
The initial matchup totaled just 122 points between a pair of opponents that rank outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency (KenPom). While the rematch reached 151 points, 19 of those points came in overtime.
The Over is 12-21 in games involving Merrimack, while Siena has seen the Over hit in just 33.3% of games (11-22).
Score prediction: Merrimack 61, Siena 57
π₯ Best Siena vs. Merrimack player prop bet
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Justice Shoats Under 14.5 points (-105)
After scoring 26 points against Fairfield in the tournament semifinal game, Siena senior guard Justice Shoats told reporters, "I'll take our backcourt against anyone." But we're fading Shoats off of that outlier performance considering the expected low-scoring game environment and his quiet efforts against Merrimack in past games.
Prior to Sunday, Shoats went Over 14.5 points just once in his last eight games. On Feb. 20, he scored just four points against Merrimack in a season-low 11 minutes, fouling out midway through the second half.
In his other matchup with Merrimack, Shoats played 37 minutes and scored just 10 points, indicating this could be a tough matchup for him. We're getting Shoats' point total at an inflated line from FanDuel based on the recency of his semifinal outburst, but we like this prop Under to a line of 13.5 points.
Our Mike Spector has a best bet in this game in his college basketball predictions today.
π Siena vs. Merrimack same-game parlay
Merrimack has covered this line against Siena in their two previous meetings, while the slow tempos for both teams could produce a low-scoring affair. In that event, Justice Shoats is seeing an inflated point total due to the recency of his 26-point explosion in the semifinal, so we're targeting his Under correlating to our other picks for this SGP.
💵 Siena vs. Merrimack SGP picks
- Merrimack -3.5 (-110)
- Under 124.5 (-105)
- Justice Shoats Under 14.5 points (-105)
Best odds: +358 via FanDuel (1u -> 3.58u)
π‘ How I'm betting Siena vs. Merrimack
I'm keeping my wagers on this matchup at one unit per bet as small conference tournaments can provide volatility.
While we like our read on the game total Under as a four-star recommendation and Justice Shoats' point total Under 14.5 correlated to that bet, we don't want to put an irresponsible number of eggs into any one basket during the high-volume betting month of March.
π Live Siena vs. Merrimack odds: MAAC Championship
This 3.5-line is tight due to the competitive nature of the matchups between Siena and Merrimack, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it stay put ahead of tonight's game.
The total has dropped from 127.5 to 124.5 across our top sportsbooks and is unlikely to move back due to the team trends relating to offensive pace and efficiency.
π Siena vs. Merrimack betting trends
| Siena | Statistic | Merrimack |
|---|---|---|
| 22-11 | W-L record | 23-10 |
| 19-14 | ATS record | 19-13-1 |
| 11-22 | O/U record | 12-21 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
πΊ How to watch Siena vs. Merrimack
- Date: Tuesday, March 10
- Tipoff: 9 p.m. ET
- Location: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall (Atlantic City, N.J.)
- TV: ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+
π€ College basketball betting insights
Here are the most-bet college basketball spreads and moneylines (h/t BetMGM):
| Spreads by ticket % ποΈ | Spreads by handle % π° | MLs by ticket % ποΈ | MLs by handle % π° |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor -4.5 | Baylor -4.5 | Baylor -190 | Baylor -190 |
| SMU -4.5 | Stanford -5.5 | Stanford -250 | Stanford -250 |
| Stanford -5.5 | Cincinnati -10.5 | Utah +475 | Cincinnati -650 |
| Cincinnati -10.5 | Oregon -4.5 | Florida International +100 | Florida International +100 |
| Oregon -4.5 | SMU -4.5 | Oregon -185 | SMU -210 |
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