🏀 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's Prediction: March Madness Picks & Odds for Round 1 (March 19)
Two different playing styles clash Thursday in the South Region first-round game, as No. 7 Saint Mary's Gaels face No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies at Paycom Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. ET on truTV.
My best Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's prediction lays the points with the Gaels as part of our March Madness predictions. Saint Mary's size advantage and elite rebounding should be the difference against an Aggies team that wants to push the pace.
š Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's picks & odds: March Madness Round 1
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Mary's -2.5 | -120 via FanDuel | 1u -> 0.83u | āāāā |
| Under 147.5 | -110 via BetMGM | 0.5u -> 0.45u | āāā |
| Zach Clemence Under 3.5 rebounds | +120 via bet365 | 1u -> 1.2u | āāāā |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.48 units
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š Who will win Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's?
See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Iām predicting Saint Mary's will come out on top by about six points in their first-round game against Texas A&M. The Gaels' rebounding edge should generate extra opportunities, and their strong free-throw shooting will likely help them seal the win down the stretch.
Score prediction: Saint Mary's 76, Texas A&M 70
š° Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's prediction & best bet
Saint Mary's -2.5 (-120)
There isn't much separating these two teams, so I think Saint Mary's rebounding advantage will be the biggest difference. The Gaels rank fourth in the country in rebound margin, posting the 15th-best offensive rebound rate and fourth-best defensive rebound rate. For comparison, the Aggies are 284th in defensive rebounding.
In addition, Saint Mary's can pull away from Texas A&M at the end of the game by knocking down free throws. The Gaels are shooting 81.1% from the charity stripe, which is the best clip in the country.
Between those two factors, I understand why this spread has started to climb to 3 and 3.5. I'll pay the -120 vig to stay under a full possession.
š„ Best Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's player prop bet
Zach Clemence Under 3.5 rebounds (+120)
Zach Clemence has been the starting center for Texas A&M for the last three games. But don't worry, his job isn't to battle for boards. Clemence is out there to stretch the defense with his ability to knock down the long ball.
Clemence, who rode the Kansas bench for the past few years, is averaging 3.1 boards per game in his first season with Texas A&M. He's only cleared this rebound line in 11 of his 32 games this season.
Given Saint Mary's superior ability on the glass, I don't like Clemence's chances of clearing this line. I love getting a +120 value at bet365.
š Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's same-game parlay
Since bet365 is the only shop offering a rebound line for Clemence, there wasn't a chance to shop the value of my Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's parlay. The total payout ended up being higher than expected, though that's because I had to sacrifice some value with worse odds on the spread and total. As such, I wouldn't put too much on this SGP.
💵 Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's SGP picks
- Saint Mary's -3
- Under 147
- Zach Clemence Under 3.5 rebounds
Best odds: +675 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.67u)
š” How I'm betting Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's: March Madness strategy
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Saint Mary's hasn't advanced past the first weekend since its Sweet 16 run in 2010, but this team has generally been a solid bet in Round 1 over the past several years. The Gaels have won seven of their previous nine Round 1 matchups.
With that in mind, it's easy to make the case for backing Saint Mary's in what is priced as a one-possession contest. If the Gaels can control the glass against the Aggies' athletes, I like their chances of covering this spread.
I've allocated 2.5 units for this matchup, but Saint Mary's spread would be my favorite wager at 2.5 or better.
š Live Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's odds: March Madness Round 1
Saint Mary's opened as a 2.5-point favorite, but the spread has climbed to as high as 3.5 in some spots. This is an indication of where the line might close by Thursday.
As for the total, the line has gone from 146.5 to 147.5 at FanDuel. I think that is also telling about where the market expects these odds to move this week.
š Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's betting trends
| Texas A&M | Statistic | Saint Mary's |
|---|---|---|
| 21-11 | Record | 27-5 |
| 18-14 | ATS record | 20-11 |
| 19-13 | O/U record | 12-19 |
| 39th | KenPom ranking | 24th |
| 119.7 (49th) | Adj. offensive rating (rank) | 120.3 (43rd) |
| 101.0 (41st) | Adj. defensive rating (rank) | 97.2 (19th) |
šŗ How to watch Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's: March Madness Round 1
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 7:35 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: truTV App
š More March Madness predictions
Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:
First-round matchups & previews
| East Region | West Region | South Region | Midwest Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU vs. Ohio State (3/19) | High Point vs. Wisconsin (3/19) | PVAM vs. Lehigh (3/18) | Miami (OH) vs. SMU (3/18) |
| South Florida vs. Louisville (3/19) | Hawaii vs. Arkansas (3/19) | Troy vs. Nebraska (3/19) | Howard vs. Michigan (3/19) |
| Siena vs. Duke (3/19) | Texas vs. BYU (3/19) | McNeese vs. Vanderbilt (3/19) | Saint Louis vs. Georgia (3/19) |
| ND State vs. Michigan St. (3/19) | Kennesaw St. vs. Gonzaga (3/19) | VCU vs. UNC (3/19) | Santa Clara vs. Kentucky (3/20) |
| N. Iowa vs. St. John's (3/20) | LIU vs. Arizona (3/20) | Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (3/19) | Akron vs. Texas Tech (3/20) |
| UCF vs. UCLA (3/20) | Utah State vs. Villanova (3/20) | Penn vs. Illinois (3/19) | Wright St. vs. Virginia (3/20) |
| Cal Baptist vs. Kansas (3/20) | Queens vs. Purdue (3/20) | Idaho vs. Houston (3/19) | Tenn. State vs. Iowa State (3/20) |
| Furman vs. UConn (3/20) | Missouri vs. Miami (3/20) | Iowa vs. Clemson (3/20) | Hofstra vs. Alabama (3/20) |
| TBD vs. Florida (3/20) | TBD vs. Tennessee (3/20) |
Bracket picks & odds analysis
| Article type | Expert analysis |
|---|---|
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| Odds & Futures | Tournament Odds | Final Four Odds | MVP Odds | MVP Predictions |
| Betting Guides | March Madness Betting Guide | Rosters by State & Country | Coach ATS Index | Prop Bets Guide |
| Women's Tournament | Women's Predictions & Odds | Women's Odds & Favorites |
| NIT | NIT Predictions & Odds | NIT Odds & Favorites | Free Printable NIT Bracket |
| Pools & Strategy | Calcutta Picks & Rankings | What is a Calcutta? | Survivor Guide | What is a Survivor Pool? | How to Fill Out a Bracket |
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