🏀 Troy vs. Nebraska Prediction: March Madness Picks & Odds for Round 1 (March 19)
No. 4 Nebraska is a 13.5-point favorite against No. 13 Troy when the two meet in the first round of March Madness on Thursday at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. Tipoff is at 12:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
My best Troy vs. Nebraska prediction backs the Trojans to cover the big number, leaning on their tournament experience and elite 3-point defense to keep this one closer than the spread suggests. I'm also fading Pryce Sandfort from deep in what looks like a tough matchup for Nebraska's sharpshooter as part of our March Madness predictions.
🏀 Troy vs. Nebraska picks & odds: NCAA First Round (March 19)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATS pick | Troy +13.5 (-110 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| O/U pick | Over 137.5 (-105 via BetMGM) | 0.5u -> 0.48u | ⭐⭐ |
| Player prop pick | Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (-145 via bet365) | 1u -> 0.69u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.5 units | Max profit: 2.08 units
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💰 Troy vs. Nebraska prediction & best bet
Troy +13.5 (-110)
Troy returned 44% of the minutes from a team that lost by 19 in the NCAA Tournament to Kentucky. But those Wildcats fared much better than this year’s Nebraska squad in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (10th vs. 55th) and 3-point shooting (24th vs. 103rd).
The Trojans have played with fire, as their seven game-tying or go-ahead baskets in the final 30 seconds of games were a D-I high. While they didn’t vault to the top of the Sun Belt until the very last day, they should prove a tough out as a battle-tested team from a competitive conference.
Score prediction: Nebraska 75 - Troy 65
🔥 Best Troy vs. Nebraska player prop bet
Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (-145)
Troy played a quietly strong non-conference schedule, including SoCon champion Furman, San Diego State, USC, MAC runner-up Toledo, and UAB. None of those teams made 10 or more threes against the Trojans, and that includes a double-overtime game against the Aztecs and a triple overtime game against USC.
Troy ranks 43rd in 3-point percentage defense, which is why it allows just 29.4% of opponents’ points from beyond the arc. Comparatively, the Trojans are a sieve defensively inside, allowing the 60th-highest percentage of opponents’ points from 2-point range.
Pryce Sandfort isn’t bashful about hoisting 3-point attempts, as he has 10-plus such shots in three of the last six games. But he has also stayed under this projected total three times in that span, and I trust he will be the focal point of the Trojans defense.
🚀 Troy vs. Nebraska same-game parlay
My four-star best bet of Troy covering the spread is heavily predicated on it being able to limit Pryce Sandfort's 3-point prowess. But instead of backing the full game Under, I like the Over to cash if Nebraska starts to work the paint more given Troy's weak interior defense.
💵 Troy vs. Nebraska SGP picks
- Troy +13.5 (-116)
- Over 137.5 (-116)
- Pryce Sandfort Under 3.5 made 3-pointers (-145)
Best odds: +486 via bet365 (1u -> 4.86u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | +8.10 units ✅ | 21.3% ✅ |
| Game picks | 14-13 | -0.6 units ❌ | -57.8% ❌ |
| Player props | 8-3 | +8.70 units ✅ | 79.1% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Troy vs. Nebraska
With my Troy point spread and Sandfort player prop wagers being four-star plays compared to just two stars of confidence in the Over, I am only making the O/U a half-unit play.
Both Troy and Nebraska are profitable to the Under, including going 18-8 when Nebraska is favored, so consider it a contrarian play.
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
📊 Live Troy vs. Nebraska odds: NCAA First Round
The only early movement on the point spread as of Monday morning saw Caesars ticking up from -13 to -13.5 to align with the rest of the market.
By comparison, the total saw a lot more movement, coming down a full point at several best sports betting sites that opened at 138 all the way down to 137. It has since settled at 137.5 at every sports book except for FanDuel, which remained in isolation a point higher at 138.5.
📈 Troy vs. Nebraska betting trends
| Troy | Statistic | Nebraska |
|---|---|---|
| 22-11 | W-L record | 26-6 |
| 17-14 | ATS record | 17-15 |
| 14-17 | O/U record | 11-21 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
📺 How to watch Troy vs. Nebraska: NCAA First Round
- Date: Thursday, March 19
- Tipoff: 12:40 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
- TV: truTV
- Streaming: Max
🏀 More March Madness predictions
Here is a look at all of our March Madness experts' coverage of the NCAA Tournament:
First-round matchups & previews
| East Region | West Region | South Region | Midwest Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU vs. Ohio State (3/19) | High Point vs. Wisconsin (3/19) | PVAM vs. Lehigh (3/18) | Miami (OH) vs. SMU (3/18) |
| South Florida vs. Louisville (3/19) | Hawaii vs. Arkansas (3/19) | Troy vs. Nebraska (3/19) | Howard vs. Michigan (3/19) |
| Siena vs. Duke (3/19) | Texas vs. BYU (3/19) | McNeese vs. Vanderbilt (3/19) | Saint Louis vs. Georgia (3/19) |
| ND State vs. Michigan St. (3/19) | Kennesaw St. vs. Gonzaga (3/19) | VCU vs. UNC (3/19) | Santa Clara vs. Kentucky (3/20) |
| N. Iowa vs. St. John's (3/20) | LIU vs. Arizona (3/20) | Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary's (3/19) | Akron vs. Texas Tech (3/20) |
| UCF vs. UCLA (3/20) | Utah State vs. Villanova (3/20) | Penn vs. Illinois (3/19) | Wright St. vs. Virginia (3/20) |
| Cal Baptist vs. Kansas (3/20) | Queens vs. Purdue (3/20) | Idaho vs. Houston (3/19) | Tenn. State vs. Iowa State (3/20) |
| Furman vs. UConn (3/20) | Missouri vs. Miami (3/20) | Iowa vs. Clemson (3/20) | Hofstra vs. Alabama (3/20) |
| TBD vs. Florida (3/20) | TBD vs. Tennessee (3/20) |
Bracket picks & odds analysis
| Article type | Expert analysis |
|---|---|
| Bracket Picks | Expert Bracket Picks | AI Bracket Predictions | Sleepers & Value Picks | Upset Predictions |
| Region Previews | East | West | South | Midwest |
| Odds & Futures | Tournament Odds | Final Four Odds | MVP Odds | MVP Predictions |
| Betting Guides | March Madness Betting Guide | Rosters by State & Country | Coach ATS Index | Prop Bets Guide |
| Women's Tournament | Women's Predictions & Odds | Women's Odds & Favorites |
| NIT | NIT Predictions & Odds | NIT Odds & Favorites | Free Printable NIT Bracket |
| Pools & Strategy | Calcutta Picks & Rankings | What is a Calcutta? | Survivor Guide | What is a Survivor Pool? | How to Fill Out a Bracket |
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