🏀 Tulsa vs. Auburn Prediction & Picks: NIT Championship (April 5)

Two No. 1 seeds battle for the NIT Championship as Tulsa faces Auburn at 8 p.m. ET on Sunday from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The game airs on ESPN2, and the Tigers are listed as anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5-point betting favorites.

My Tulsa vs. Auburn prediction overlooks the Tigers’ 22-point semifinal victory against an overmatched Illinois State squad, and backs the Golden Hurricane to cover on the strength of an outstanding starting five.

That efficient starting five should propel the Golden Hurricane to a big day offensively, which makes up my best team prop wager as part of our NIT predictions.

🏀 Tulsa vs. Auburn picks & odds: NIT Championship

See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.65 units

🏆 Who will win Tulsa vs. Auburn?

Tulsa is 2-0 SU in its only other two NIT finals appearances in school history. But Steven Pearl’s 22 wins are the most by an Auburn head coach in his first season, and I expect the SEC battle-tested Tigers to prevail, with Tulsa covering.

Score prediction: Auburn 83, Tulsa 80

💰 Tulsa vs. Auburn prediction & best bet

Tulsa +5.5 (-115)

This Tulsa squad is one of the best in program history, winning 30-plus games for the second time ever. The Golden Hurricane are also the ninth team from the American Conference to reach 30 wins in a season.

Tulsa’s starting five of Tylen Riley, Miles Barnstable, Ade Popoola, David Green, and Tyler Behrend have a plus-minus of plus-176, ranking them fourth in the country, per EvanMiya. 

The Golden Hurricane often have an edge over their opponents in the 3-point shot volume category, and they need seven 3-pointers to become the 17th school ever to make 400 threes in a season.

🔥 Best Tulsa vs. Auburn team prop bet

Tulsa team total Over 77.5 (-115)

Auburn’s defense ranks outside the top 200 with a 40% 3-point rate allowed. That doesn’t bode well for containing a Tulsa offense that shoots 39% from beyond the arc on a top-36 3-point rate.

The Golden Hurricane offensive system is even more worrisome to guard when factoring in that they own a 97th percentile jump shot efficiency rating and a 98th percentile catch-and-shoot efficiency rating.

Even though Tulsa committed 14 turnovers and shot just 46.2% from inside the arc in its semifinal win against New Mexico, its 3-point prowess (12 made threes) bailed it out, and it still mustered enough offense to average 1.04 points per possession.

Auburn will not mind pushing the pace, just as it did when it scored 88 points against an Illinois State team that ranked 225th in adjusted tempo. With more possessions, Tulsa should exceed this projected total against the 113th-ranked defense.

🚀 Tulsa vs. Auburn same-game parlay

BetMGM is an easy choice for this same-game parlay, as it offers the best number on Tulsa's point spread and team total. The Golden Hurricane have a team total O/U one point higher at 78.5 at several of the best sports betting sites. While I'm putting all my eggs in one basket on Tulsa to have a big day offensively, that kind of one-way logic makes it easier to cash a parlay of this magnitude.

💵 My betting record for college basketball

All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.

💡 How I'm betting Tulsa vs. Auburn: NIT strategy

Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.

Tulsa has covered its last three games in this NIT run, with two of those covers coming by at least 6.5 points. The Golden Hurricane would be a no-play at +4 or lower, so I am excited to back the +5.5 while getting 1.5 points worth of value relative to our handicap.

The Golden Hurricane were the first team to hold New Mexico in the 60's in nine games. Thus, if it looks like it is deliberately slowing the tempo to not get in a track meet with Auburn, I may get onside a live Under bet to hedge my two-star bet on the Over.

📊 Live Tulsa vs. Auburn odds: NIT Championship

There is a wide one-point gap between the low end of the market of Auburn -4.5 at FanDuel and the high end at -5.5 at BetMGM. bet365 was the only one of our best sports betting apps to adjust its line as of this writing, ticking up from -4.5 to -5. That movement was supported by the fact that 62% of the early wagers landed on the favorites.

BetMGM saw the biggest movement in terms of the total, quickly moving from an opening number of 159.5 to 160.5. Caesars was the only sportsbook remaining at an O/U of 160, and it may not align with the rest of the market unless more egregious betting splits surface (currently it's 54/46 in favor of the Over).

📈 Tulsa vs. Auburn betting trends

📺 How to watch Tulsa vs. Auburn: NIT Championship

• Date: Sunday, April 5
• Tipoff: 8 p.m. ET
• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
• TV: ESPN2
• Streaming: ESPN+