🏀 Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas Prediction & Parlay: Today's SEC Championship Odds & Picks
It's the first of two ranked-vs-ranked conference championships today as No. 22 Vanderbilt and No. 17 Arkansas clash for the SEC. The Commodores are a 2.5-point betting favorite ahead of tipoff from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn., at 1 p.m. ET (ESPN).
My Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas prediction expects the pro-Commodores crowd in Nashville to spur them to the title, but I do see Razorbacks center Malique Ewin dominating the glass.
Selection Sunday has arrived but conference tournaments are not wrapped up just yet - stay on top of all of the day's action with our college basketball conference tournament guide.
π Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas picks & odds: SEC Championship (March 15)
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML/ATS pick | Vanderbilt ML (-145 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.69u | βββββ |
| O/U pick | Over 166 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u -> 0.91u | βββ |
| Player prop pick | Malique Ewin Over 7.5 rebounds (+115 via bet365) | 1u -> 1.15u | ββββ |
Total wagered: 3.0 units | Max profit: 2.75 units
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π° Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas prediction & best bet
Vanderbilt ML (-145)
Shorthanded is not a great position to be in when playing a third game in three days. Arkansas played just seven guys in an overtime win yesterday, while four of its starters played 40-plus minutes.
Vanderbilt head coach Mark Byington will use his 92nd-ranked adjusted tempo to his benefit. And in the half-court, expect a steady diet of pick-and-roll with his standout backcourt duo of Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles.
Byington used it to perfection in the upset of Florida, doubling down on when they averaged 1.31 points per possession on such sets against it in the regular season.
Score prediction: Vanderbilt 86 - Arkansas 83
🔎 Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas betting insights
Over at BetMGM, the action is pretty slip. The handle for the spread is 47% for Vanderbilt, 53% for Arkansas. The moneyline is a little more split, with 41% on Vandy and 59% on Arkansas.
This is the most-bet game of the day, with Vanderbilt -2.5 having the second-most tickets written for any spread bet today.
π₯ Best Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas player prop bet
Malique Ewin Over 7.5 rebounds (+115)
Malique Ewin took advantage of not only the matchup against an undersized Ole Miss team in yesterdayβs semifinal, but also his extended minutes, playing 29 minutes for just the fourth time all season. He paid that off in a career-high 13 rebounds, thanks to nine coming on the offensive glass.
Ewin can again take advantage of the matchup against a Vanderbilt defense that allows a 31.9% offensive rebounding rate (249th), which was also 10th-worst in SEC play.
Fellow frontcourt mate Trevon Brazile had a game-high 14 rebounds in the dominant 25-point regular season victory over Vanderbilt, but I expect Ewin to eat into some of those 32 minutes Brazile played in that game. At the very least, John Calipari should utilize Brazile and Ewin more together with a shorter rotation.
π Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas same-game parlay
Though bet365 had the steepest moneyline odds for Vanderbilt of all the best sports betting sites, it is also the only one besides Caesars to offer a total of 166, while all others are a half-point higher at 166.5. But this same-game parlay was made almost out of necessity at bet365, as it had the most extensive catalogue of player props. Either way, expecting Vanderbilt to push the tempo and play faster supports all three of these picks.
💵 Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas SGP picks
- Vanderbilt ML (-161)
- Over 166 (-116)
- Malique Ewin Over 7.5 rebounds (+115)
Best odds: +549 via bet365 (1u -> 5.49u)
π‘ How I'm betting Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions this season.
Though Vanderbilt's point spread is minimal at -2.5, I prefer to back its moneyline odds in case Arkansas' Darius Acuff is another one-man wrecking crew after averaging 30.5 points through the first two tournament games. I would prefer a point-spread play to anything at Vanderbilt -160 or higher (61.54% implied odds), with the exception of me using such steep odds as part of a same-game parlay.
I toyed with the idea of making a play on Acuff's point total, since he has scored 20-plus points in 12 of the last 13 games. This game will certainly be fun to watch if you love great guard play, but I worried about Acuff's ability to hold up for a third straight day after he missed the regular season finale against Missouri.
π Live Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas odds: SEC Championship
After opening at -2.5, Vanderbilt touched -3 at some point at most top sports betting sites overnight. But that seems to be the ceiling for this line before tipoff, as all of those -3s were quickly bet back down to the original number.
The total has seen more widespread movement in comparison. No matter if the number opened at 166.5 or 167.5, the O/U was bet down as far as 165.5 across the market, and seems to have stabilized between 166 and 166.5 as of Sunday morning. There is a near dead-even split (51/49), with the slightest tilt in wagers supporting the Under.
π Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas betting trends
| Vanderbilt | Statistic | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| 26-7 | W-L record | 25-8 |
| 18-14 | ATS record | 21-12 |
| 17-15 | O/U record | 19-14 |
| 4-1 | Last 5 games | 4-1 |
πΊ How to watch Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas: SEC Championship
- Date: Sunday, March 15
- Tipoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Bridgestone Arena (Nashville, Tenn.)
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
β Conference tournament expert picks
- Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas SEC Championship prediction
- Dayton vs. VCU A10 Championship prediction
- Wichita State vs. South Florida American Championship prediction
- Purdue vs. Michigan Big Ten Championship prediction
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