NFL MVP Odds & Favorites 2026-27: Josh Allen the Favorite; Matthew Stafford Among Top 10

Four of the five NFL MVP odds for the 2026-27 regular season are former winners, with Josh Allen (+600) setting the early pace. 

He's trading ahead of Lamar Jackson (+750), Drake Maye (+850), Joe Burrow (+1000), and Patrick Mahomes (+1100), with reigning winner Matthew Stafford among the 10 betting favorites (+1400) to take the plaudits next season. You'll have to venture to the 24th name on the list to find the first non-QB, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua, trading at +10000.  

📊 Opening NFL MVP odds 2026-27

2026-27 NFL MVP odds via DraftKings.

😤 Allen, Jackson open as NFL MVP favorites ahead of 2026 season

The winners of the last two MVP trophies entering last season both suffered through one of the worst campaigns of their career and will enter next season with new head coaches and a rebuilt staff (and roster) around them.

That hasn't dissuaded the best NFL betting sites from pricing Allen and Jackson as the top two contenders in this market one year removed from their epic MVP battle in 2024, when Jackson finished first in All-Pro voting while Allen claimed the first MVP of his career. And both will be the featured focus for new offensive play-callers in 2026.

It shouldn't surprise anybody these two stars have their teams among the early Super Bowl odds favorites. And nobody will be taken aback if Allen or Jackson add to their MVP trophy count.

But with so much uncertainty surrounding both quarterbacks, I'd be looking further down the board this early.

🔴 Can Drake Maye follow MVP run with winning campaign in 2026-27?

While Allen and Jackson lead the early odds, Maye has done something neither of those two former MVPs have accomplished: start in the Super Bowl. He propelled the New England Patriots to the Big Game despite the team's position as a Super Bowl odds long shots to open the 2025-26 season. 

That could be the boost Maye needs in the public profile to jump-start his MVP campaign next season after a sensational sophomore season. 

Clearly, Maye is capable of MVP-level play across an entire season, though the competition is stiff with Allen and a (potentially) healthy Jackson back in the mix. Still, if you're looking to bet one of the favorites, Maye seems to offer the best value of all.

🔮 Early NFL MVP prediction: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (+1000)

I am a simple man with a simple creed: when Joe Burrow is healthy, he will garner my hard-earned money for an MVP bet. It's that simple.

Why wouldn't it be when he's played at an MVP level whenever he's healthy? The former No. 1 pick has finished fourth in MVP voting each of his last two healthy seasons (2022, 2024), and he very likely would have won the award two years ago - when he led the league in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43) - if the Bengals won one more game to reach the postseason.

He missed nine games last year but ended the season on a tear with 850 yards, nine touchdowns, and one interception in his final three starts of a lost season. I haven't lost any confidence in Burrow's ability to stuff the stat sheet when he's on the field, and with a $10 bet returning a $100 profit if he wins his first MVP, I'm back on the bandwagon.

💰 NFL MVP long shots to bet now

Follow all of our NFL analysis and betting advice for every major betting market.

Jordan Love, QB, Packers (+1500)

Everyone's favorite dark-horse MVP candidate entering last season, Jordan Love didn't produce the eye-popping numbers many bettors were hoping for in a season that ultimately went sideways for Green Bay. But the Packers QB still ranked second leaguewide in QBR (72.7) - his career-best mark as a starter - and sixth in passer rating (101.2) while throwing his fewest interceptions (6) in three years as QB1.

He did so all while throwing to a rotating cast at receiver amid injuries up and down the depth chart, an ailment that extended throughout the Packers' offense and even led to Love missing multiple starts, too. He's simply too talented to count out in this market with even a little more luck on the injury front for a talented Green Bay roster.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears (+1500)

Anyone with eyes can see that Caleb Williams is growing into the elite quarterback that most draftniks projected him to be when he came out of USC two years ago. That shouldn't come as a surprise with whizkid play-caller Ben Johnson calling the shots for a Bears offense that burst onto the scene last year in his head coaching debut.

In addition to his highlight plays and NFL-leading six comebacks in the fourth quarter, he also led all full-time starters with a paltry 1.2% interception rate to complement his 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns. Williams has already arrived even as he's seemingly barely scratched the surface of his potential - I'd rather bet too early on an MVP campaign than miss our chance completely.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (+2000)

You may have missed it amid the Stafford vs. Maye debate, but Trevor Lawrence absolutely balled out down the stretch for the Jaguars and will finish in the top five in MVP voting as one of the finalists for this year's award. Not bad for a "bust," eh?

I never lost faith in the former No. 1 pick, who ranked fifth in passing touchdowns (29) and sixth in passing yards (4,007) despite a rotten start to his first season with new head coach and play-caller Liam Coen. Once those two found their rhythm, Lawrence elevated his game with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions over his final seven starts. I love his chances of carrying that momentum into next season as a dark-horse MVP pick.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (+2200)

It may feel like a distant memory now, but Jalen Hurts finished second in MVP voting in 2022 and won Super Bowl MVP honors less than a year ago. Yet he's being priced like an MVP afterthought in the same tier, sandwiched between Sam Darnold and Bo Nix.

That's simply a mistake for a player of Hurts' caliber as a passer and rusher, which could finally be unlocked by incoming offensive coordinator Sean Mannion - a rising star in coaching circles who helped Love post impressive numbers amid a frustrating situation last year in Green Bay. I'm not blind to Hurts' shortcomings, but we've seen MVP play from him before, and this price is simply too big to ignore heading into 2026.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons (+150000)

We haven't seen a running back win NFL MVP since 2012, but one of these years, the quarterbacks' vice grip on this award will loosen. And there's no skill position star I'd rather bet to win MVP than Bijan Robinson, who has both talent and narrative on his side.

The dual-threat superstar ranked fourth last year with 1,478 rushing yards while adding 820 receiving yards for a team that lacked quality QB play all season. That last part won't necessarily change next season after the Falcons cut Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. on the mend, but new head coach Kevin Stefanski should level up this offense regardless of who's under center. If Robinson posts gaudy numbers again, I could see him getting most of the credit - and that's enough for me to take a shot at 100/1 odds.

🗳️ How does NFL MVP voting work?

The NFL MVP voting process is handled by the Associated Press (AP) and uses a ranked-choice voting system. This system was introduced in 2022 to provide a more comprehensive look at who the most valuable players are beyond just the top vote-getter.

Here is the breakdown of how it works:

1. The voting panel

A panel of 50 media members who cover the NFL regularly (including writers, broadcasters, and former players) cast the ballots. These voters are selected for their expertise and are independent of the league itself.

2. Ranked-choice ballot

Unlike the old system where voters chose only one winner, each voter now ranks their top five choices for MVP. Points are assigned based on the ranking:

• 1st Place: 10 points
• 2nd Place: 5 points
• 3rd Place: 3 points
• 4th Place: 2 points
• 5th Place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point score across all 50 ballots wins the award. This means a player could technically win without having the most first-place votes if they appear consistently as the second or third choice on almost every ballot.

3. Timing of the vote

• When: Voting occurs at the end of the regular season (typically in early January) but before the playoffs begin
• The Logic: This ensures that playoff performance does not influence the award, as it is strictly a regular-season honor
• The Reveal: The winner is announced during the NFL Honors ceremony, which takes place the Thursday before the Super Bowl

Recent example (2025-26 Season)

The 2025 MVP race was one of the closest in history. Matthew Stafford (Rams) narrowly defeated Drake Maye (Patriots) by just five points (366 to 361). Stafford received 24 first-place votes, while Maye received 23. This shows how crucial the 2nd through 5th place rankings have become in deciding the winner.

📜 NFL MVP betting history

Here's a look at the last 10 NFL MVP winners, along with their preseason odds to win the award. The last four winners have all opened with shorter than 15/1 odds, which followed a three-year streak of long shots winning MVP honors.

❓ NFL MVP FAQs

Who is favored to win 2026-27 NFL MVP?

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (+600) opened as the betting favorite by the 2026-27 NFL MVP odds with an implied win probability of 14.29%.

When will the 2025-27 NFL MVP be announced?

The 2026-27 NFL MVP will likely be announced on the Thursday ahead of the 2027 Super Bowl at NFL Honors, in the Super Bowl host city (Los Angeles).

Who was the NFL MVP last year?

Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford was named NFL MVP for the first time in his career at age 37.

Who has the most NFL MVP awards in history? 

Former quarterback Peyton Manning has won five NFL MVP awards. He captured four with the Indianapolis Colts (2003, 2004, 2008, 2009) and one with the Denver Broncos (2013).

Who was the last back-to-back MVP winner?

Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021.  

Has anyone won consecutive MVPs more than once?  

Peyton Manning won consecutive MVP awards twice, in 2003 and 2004 and again in 2008 and 2009. 

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