🏈 NFL Projected Win Totals & Over/Under Wins Odds 2026: Super Bowl Favorites Leading the Way
The 2026 Super Bowl odds have dropped, so it's time to dive into the NFL win totals for the regular season. Right now, the Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, and Seattle Seahawks are leading the way in projected wins at 10.5, with the Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins on the opposite end at 4.5 at our best NFL betting sites.
What are some of my favorite plays before the season kicks off? Let's dig in.
💰 NFL win total odds: My best bets
NFL odds via DraftKings are displayed as Over/Under.
| Team | Pick | Odds (DraftKings) | Bet size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | Over 4.5 wins | -110 | 1 unit |
| Patriots | Under 9.5 wins | +115 | 1 unit |
| Cowboys | Over 8.5 wins | -130 | 1 unit |
| Chargers | Over 10.5 wins | +110 | 1.5 units |
| Jaguars | Over 9.5 wins | +100 | 1 unit |
| Saints | Over 7.5 wins | +100 | 1 unit |
| Steelers | Under 8.5 wins | -140 | 1 unit |
For more analysis on these plays, make sure to dive into my NFL win total predictions for 2026.
🦬 AFC East win totals & odds
⬇️ Patriots Under 9.5 wins (+115)
Our first plus-money play of the year goes to Drake Maye and the Patriots - for all the wrong reasons. They won't have a cake-walk schedule this year, with a stretch that sees them play the Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, and Jags that will put them comfortably under the number. Let the hate watch begin.
⬇️ Bills Under 10.5 wins (+105)
You might think I'm crazy here, but when you look at their 2026 schedule, you'll probably rescind that statement. They have the Chiefs, Bears, Lions, Chargers, and Ravens at home, and are on the road against the Rams, Packers, Patriots, and Broncos. It's an absolute gauntlet, and with all the negativity behind the scenes, you should think twice before betting this Over.
⬆️ Dolphins Over 4.5 wins (-110)
Yes, the Dolphins are a terrible football team. However, this roster can get them five wins. The quarterback situation is a question mark, and Fins Nation is hoping new head coach Jeff Hafley will bring Malik Willis with him, but they still have arguably the best running back in the league, and a serviceable defense. I have them at 5-12 this season.
⬇️ Jets Under 5.5 wins (-140)
I have the Jets going 4-13 this year with a somewhat difficult schedule ahead of them. Keeping Aaron Glenn was a mistake by the franchise after their defense couldn't muster one interception all year long. History was made in the worst of ways. The Jets will be a dumpster fire again in 2026.
🐦⬛ AFC North win totals & odds
⬆️ Ravens Over 10.5 wins (-140)
I have the Ravens cruising to 12 wins next season considering their 2026 schedule. Remember, they play two games against the lowly Steelers and Browns, along with matchups against the Titans, Falcons, and Cardinals. With Baltimore mostly running it back with the same roster, this should be an easy win on your futures card.
⬆️ Bengals Over 9.5 wins (-115)
I also have the Bengals projected closer to 12 wins than 10 for the 2026 season - barring any injuries. If Joe Burrow is in, this is an easy double-digit-winning squad. With games against the Titans, Browns, Dolphins, and Saints, this team shouldn't have any issues going over this number, especially if they can clean things up on the defensive side of the football.
⬇️ Steelers Under 8.5 wins (-140)
With no answer at quarterback, the Steelers might be in for a long season. I have them winning just five games in their gauntlet of a schedule, which includes games against the Broncos, Eagles, Texans, and Jags outside of their division.
⬆️ Browns Over 6.5 wins (+100)
This won't be a part of my futures card personally, but what a fun bet to make prior to the season starting. A dynamic defense led by Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Myles Garrett mixed in with a full year of Shedeur Sanders at quarterback - you better believe the football world will be watching the Browns next season.
🐆 AFC South win totals & odds
⬆️ Jaguars Over 9.5 wins (+100)
One of my favorite plays for the upcoming season is undoubtedly the Jaguars to get 10 wins. Coming off a 13-win campaign, I'm genuinely shocked we're getting even-money value on a team playing under Coach of the Year candidate Liam Coen. Duuuuuuvaaaaaaaaaaal.
⬇️ Colts Under 8.5 wins (-125)
Another team with a few question marks at quarterback. Will it be Daniel Jones off injury? What are they going to do with Anthony Richardson? Either way, I'm fading.
⬇️ Texans Under 9.5 wins (-110)
I'm really only fully sold on the Jaguars in this division, with questions surrounding quarterback C.J. Stroud dominating the headlines in Houston. The steep dropoff needs to be studied, and I'm fading the Texans and their tremendous defense in the meantime.
⬆️ Titans Over 6.5 wins (-140)
New coach, a second-year leap from Cam Ward, and the Titans are in business. Quite like Sanders and the Browns, the football world will be watching this team in 2026 - let's play the Over on a season full of expectations for the Titans.
🏹 AFC West win totals & odds
⬆️ Chiefs Over 10.5 (-105)
Following a rare 6-11 season in 2025 - largely due to Patrick Mahomes' season-ending knee injury - the Chiefs finished 3rd in the AFC West. In 2026, they get the benefit of an easier schedule, providing a significantly easier path to 11 wins for a healthy Mahomes. He'll be back with vengeance on his mind.
⬆️ Chargers Over 10.5 (+110)
This could be my favorite bet on the board in 2026. Los Angeles won 10 gameslast year with the worst offensive line football - by a long shot. With a healthy line and a new offensive coordinator in guru Mike McDaniel, the Chargers are poised for an incredible season.
⬇️ Broncos Under 9.5 wins (-110)
Unfortunately for fans in Denver, not every team can go over their projected win totals in the AFC West. The Broncos won 11 games by one score last season and will likely fall back down to Earth in 2026.
⬇️ Raiders Under 5.5 wins (-140)
This number should be lower than 5.5 wins. At some point, the Raiders will dig themselves out of this hole they've dug themselves into, but it won't be in 2026. This team is going to be hard-pressed to win four games, let alone six.
🦅 NFC East win totals & odds
⬇️ Eagles Under 10.5 wins (-125)
There's some trouble brewing in Philadelphia. They have all the talent in the world but couldn't seem to put it together in 2025. For the first time in over a decade, they will be without legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland, who left this month along with several other key assistants. Breaking in a new offensive coordinator (Sean Mannion) and a new offensive line coach simultaneously creates a massive risk for a team whose identity has been built on veteran stability and elite line play.
⬆️ Commanders Over 7.5 wins (-125)
Jayden Daniels' 2025 season was derailed by a series of injuries (knee, hamstring, and elbow) that limited him to just seven starts. With an easier schedule on deck in 2026, I'm banking on the Commanders securing eight wins.
⬆️ Cowboys Over 8.5 wins (-125)
While the defense is undergoing a reset, the offense is returning virtually every major piece of a unit that finished 2025 as one of the most prolific in the NFL. Their well-balanced attack will return, leaving me at least four reasons why the Cowboys will secure nine wins.
⬆️ Giants Over 7.5 wins (+110)
Harbaugh brings immediate CEO-level stability to a franchise that has lacked leadership since Tom Coughlin. Historically, elite coaches like Harbaugh spark rapid turnarounds - similar to Mike Vrabel’s recent impact in New England - by fixing the late-game collapses and schematic errors that cost the Giants at least three wins last year. With Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo fully healthy, this team is destined for at least eight wins.
🦁 NFC North win total odds
⬆️ Bears Over 9.5 wins (+100)
The bust narrative is officially dead. In 2025, Williams shattered the franchise passing record with 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns, leading the Bears to an NFC North title. More importantly, he established himself as the NFL's most dangerous fourth-quarter playmaker. With head coach Ben Johnson returning for Year 2 of their partnership, the Bears' offense is no longer a work in progress - it's a finished product ready to contend for a Super Bowl.
⬇️ Packers Under 10.5 wins (-120)
While Love's ceiling is MVP-caliber, his 2025 data revealed a massive red flag: he led the NFL in EPA per dropback when kept clean, but plummeted to 21st in the league when under pressure. Teams will take advantage, and with a tough schedule, I'm taking a shot on the Under.
⬇️ Vikings Under 8.5 wins (-120)
Following a 2025 season where J.J. McCarthy struggled with both injuries and inconsistent play (six touchdowns to 10 interceptions), the Vikings enter 2026 without a clear consensus on their QB1. This uncertainty is compounded by a franchise in limbo, and that's enough for me to go Under.
⬆️ Lions Over 10.5 wins (+100)
While the Lions disappointed with a 9-8 finish in 2025, they were arguably the unluckiest team in the league. Their entire defensive secondary - D.J. Reed, Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph, and Terrion Arnold - were on the field for an average of just 44% of defensive snaps. Despite these injuries and a league-high 3-5 record in one-score games, they still managed a winning record. I'm giving them the space to win 11 in 2026.
🏴☠️ NFC South win totals & odds
⬆️ Panthers Over 6.5 wins (-120)
The 2025 season was a massive proof-of-concept for the Panthers. Young set career highs in passing yards (3,011), touchdowns (23), and passer rating (87.8), leading the league with six game-winning drives. I'm surprised this number is so low, give me seven wins for the Panthers.
⬆️ Buccaneers Over 8.5 wins (-140)
Following a season where the Bucs struggled with a one-dimensional run game, the 2026 offseason is focused on providing Baker Mayfield with the support he was missing during last year's late-season slide. With a healthy offense, this Bucs team will put last year in the rearview.
⬇️ Falcons Under 6.5 wins (+115)
While the hire of Kevin Stefanski brings offensive credibility, he inherits a nightmare QB situation. Michael Penix Jr. is currently rehabbing a torn ACL - the third of his career. With his recovery timeline stretching deep into the 2026 season, the Falcons are forced to live with a washed Kirk Cousins.
⬆️ Saints Over 7.5 wins (+100)
Tyler Shough is a legitimate franchise cornerstone. While the Saints finished 6-11 in 2025, they were one of the hottest teams in the league down the stretch. After taking over as the starter, Shough led the Saints to a 4-1 finish in their final five games. Give him a full season and watch what he does.
⛏️ NFC West win totals & odds
⬆️ Rams Over 10.5 wins (-140)
Fresh off an MVP campaign where he led the league in passing (4,707 yards) and touchdowns (46), Stafford has confirmed he's returning for the 2026 season. He's currently operating at the peak of his powers within a Sean McVay offense that finished 2025 as the No. 1-ranked unit in both total yards and points per game. That's enough to watch them go over 10 wins.
⬆️ Seahawks Over 10.5 wins (-130)
Following a dominant 2025 campaign where they finished 14-3 and defeated the Patriots in the Super Bowl, the Seahawks have established themselves as the NFL's premier "Darkside" defense under Mike Macdonald. You won't see me fading them next year.
⬇️ 49ers Under 10.5 wins (-150)
While the 49ers remain a powerhouse, the 2026 offseason (following a disappointing 6-11 campaign in 2025) has exposed the cracks in a roster that was forced to get "young and cheap" around Brock Purdy's massive new 5-year, $265-million contract extension
⬇️ Cardinals Under 4.5 wins (-110)
The franchise is currently actively seeking trade partners for Kyler Murray to offload his $52.6 million cap hit, signaling that the team is prepared to embrace a bridge year with Jacoby Brissett or a rookie quarterback while cleaning up their balance sheet. What does that mean? They will not be a good football team this year.
🤔 How I'm handicapping NFL win totals
There are two ways I handicap NFL win totals - strength of schedule and regression analysis. The former is quite easy to understand: you combine the winning percentages of opponents from the previous year to get a baseline understanding of a team's upcoming path. For example: the New England Patriots faced teams with a sub-.400 winning percentage last year, which helped them earn 13 wins on the campaign.
Regression analysis can be more nuanced. Did the team do enough in the offseason to help change their trajectory going into the new season? How many one-score games did a team win or lose last year? How many injuries did a team have to endure? Remember, there can be both positive and negative regression. For example: I'm taking the Chargers' Over 10.5 wins this season as one of my favorite plays due to the positive regression incoming for their offensive line.
🤑 Bankroll management
While most of these are plus-money plays, I tend to treat them as season-long investments. I typically don't wager more than .3u on a plus-money single-game or player prop wager. However, in the futures market, I'm OK with reaching deeper into my bankroll, as it's easier to manage long-term variance.
For more do's and dont's of bankroll management, our LJ Blut has you covered.
🎟️ Most bet NFL win totals
Here are the most popular win totals, via DraftKings:
| Type | Team | Win total |
|---|---|---|
| Over | Giants | Over 7.5 |
| Over | Browns | Over 6.5 |
| Over | Falcons | Over 6.5 |
| Over | Bears | Over 9.5 |
| Over | Bills | Over 10.5 |
| Under | Steelers | Under 8.5 |
| Under | Titans | Under 6.5 |
| Under | Patriots | Under 10.5 |
| Under | Jets | Under 5.5 |
| Under | Browns | Under 6.5 |
📊 Full NFL win totals 2026-27
| Team | Win Total | Over Odds | Under Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | 4.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Falcons | 6.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Ravens | 10.5 | -145 | +120 |
| Bills | 10.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Panthers | 6.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Bears | 9.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Bengals | 9.5 | -115 | -105 |
| Browns | 6.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Cowboys | 8.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Broncos | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Lions | 10.5 | -130 | +110 |
| Packers | 10.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Texans | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Colts | 8.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Jaguars | 9.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Chiefs | 10.5 | -105 | -115 |
| Chargers | 10.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Rams | 10.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Raiders | 5.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Dolphins | 4.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Vikings | 8.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Patriots | 9.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Saints | 7.5 | +100 | -120 |
| Giants | 7.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Jets | 5.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Eagles | 0.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Steelers | 8.5 | +115 | -140 |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | -130 | +110 |
| 49ers | 10.5 | +125 | -150 |
| Buccaneers | 8.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Titans | 6.5 | -140 | +115 |
| Commanders | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
🔢 Win total history
Since 2009-10, two teams - the 2015-16 Panthers and 2011-12 Packers - finished the season with a 15-1 record.
Since the 17-game schedule was introduced in 2021-22, we've had just two teams go 15-2 - both came last season when the Chiefs and Lions hit the mark.
| Season | Best record | Team(s) |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 14-3 | Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, New England Patriots |
| 2024-25 | 15-2 | Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions |
| 2023-24 | 13-4 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022-23 | 14-3 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2021-22 | 13-4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers |
| 2020-21 | 14-2 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2019-20 | 14-2 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018-19 | 13-3 | New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams |
| 2017-18 | 13-3 | Four teams |
| 2016-17 | 14-2 | New England Patriots |
| 2015-16 | 15-1 | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014-15 | 12-4 | Five teams |
| 2013-14 | 13-3 | Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks |
| 2012-13 | 13-3 | Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons |
| 2011-12 | 15-1 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2010-11 | 14-2 | New England Patriots |
| 2009-10 | 14-2 | Indianapolis Colts |
📈 Last year's NFL win totals
| Team | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 14 | 3 |
| Patriots | 14 | 3 |
| Seahawks | 14 | 3 |
| Jaguars | 13 | 4 |
| Rams | 12 | 5 |
| 49ers | 12 | 5 |
| Bills | 12 | 5 |
| Chargers | 11 | 6 |
| Eagles | 11 | 6 |
| Bears | 11 | 6 |
| Packers | 9 | 7 |
| Vikings | 9 | 8 |
| Lions | 9 | 8 |
| Falcons | 8 | 9 |
| Panthers | 8 | 9 |
| Buccaneers | 8 | 9 |
| Ravens | 8 | 9 |
| Cowboys | 7 | 9 |
| Dolphins | 7 | 10 |
| Saints | 6 | 11 |
| Steelers | 10 | 7 |
| Bengals | 6 | 11 |
| Commanders | 5 | 12 |
| Browns | 5 | 12 |
| Giants | 4 | 13 |
| Chiefs | 6 | 11 |
| Texans | 12 | 5 |
| Colts | 8 | 9 |
| Titans | 3 | 14 |
| Raiders | 3 | 14 |
| Jets | 3 | 14 |
| Cardinals | 3 | 14 |
❓ NFL win total FAQs
How do I bet NFL win totals?
Betting NFL win totals means wagering on how many regular-season games a team will win. Sportsbooks set a number (e.g., 10.5 wins), and you bet over (11 or more wins) or under (10 or fewer wins). Odds are attached to each side, and you win if the team finishes above or below the posted number.
Which team is expected to record the most wins in 2026?
The Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, Rams, and Eagles are projected to finish with the most wins while all getting a total of 11.5.
Which team is expected to record the fewest wins in 2026?
The Cardinals and Dolphins are forecasted to be in the bottom tier while receiving a 4.5 win total.
Has any team gone undefeated in the regular season?
Only two teams have gone undefeated in the regular season since the NFL-AFL merger: the 1972 Miami Dolphins and the 2007 New England Patriots.
When did the NFL extend its season to 17 games?
The NFL extended its season from 16 to 17 games in 2021-22.
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