🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 Prediction & Odds: NHL Picks Today (April 19)

Atlantic Division rivals meet today when the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens open a best-of-seven NHL playoffs series. The Lightning are a -190 moneyline betting favorite to open the series with a win on home ice. Puck drop from Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Fla., is set for 5:45 p.m. ET and will air on TNT and stream on HBO Max.

My Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction will explain why I think the market has overshot the home favorite, while breaking down my best bet and best player prop for the late-afternoon game.

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🏒 Canadiens vs. Lightning picks & odds today: Game 1

See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.

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🏆 Who will win Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1?

This is largely a play and prediction based on these two teams being incredibly evenly matched (both finished the regular season with 106 points), but Tampa (-190) being well overpriced.

The Habs have won each of the last two head-to-head meetings with Tampa, including a 2-1 victory in a very "playoff"-game just 10 days ago (that game ended with 126 penalty minutes).

I'm making a dice roll on Montreal sneaking out a low-scoring victory in the series opener. It's how Tampa does: in its last four playoff series, its lost the opener three times.

Score prediction: Montreal 3, Tampa Bay 2

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💰 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 prediction & best bet

Under 6.5 (-134)

I'm expecting a defensive game today where offense will be at a premium.

Tampa netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the goal standard for high-stakes games. He finished the season second in GAA (2.31) and third in save percentage (.912). Montreal's Jakub Dobes finished the season on fire, logging a .927 SV% and a 2.25 GAA over his final eleven starts - a stretch that includes holding these Lightning to a single goal twice.

Both teams are also missing key defensemen. Tampa's Victor Hedman is expected to remain out due to personal reasons. The Bolts tend to play a more "neutral-zone trap" heavy style without him, keeping shots in check. Montreal will be without Noah Dobson, which will force players like Mike Matheson into a more defensive-first role.

The Under 6 is a play too in the -110 or better range, but I'm leaning toward the 6.5 where available (in this price range) given playoff ENG pushes.

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🔥 Best Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 player prop bet

Juraj Slafkovsky to record 1+ points (-122)

If a dictionary had a definition of "a thorn in Tampa Bay's side" it would just be a picture of Slafkovsky. The left winger was held off the scoresheet only in the team's first meeting of the season before proceeding to log seven points over the next three meetings (four goals, three assists). That includes two multi-point games in the recent battles, both of which were quite "playoff-like."

A bit of a case of "pick your poison" - teams are forced to try to shut down Cole Caufield (-186 to record a point) and Nick Suzuki (-225) to record a point, leaving their linemate to reap the rewards. And it's not just first-line minutes, it's also power-play minutes that Slafkovsky shares with the lethal duo. Let's get the best price for the point from the Slovak.

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🚀 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 same-game parlay

While FanDuel offers the best price on a couple of my bets above, it doesn't offer all of the player prop markets that I want for tonight's SGP. I'm going to get those markets at bet365, which also offers some of the best sportsbook promos.

I'm going to lean into the Under 6.5 to start things off; when you start to add player point props to that you see an immediate value. We'll stick with our Slafkovsky play. Due to the defensive injuries, we're going to round things out with Mike Matheson to record 2+ blocked shots. 

💵 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 SGP picks

• Under 6.5 (-140)
• Slafkovsky to record 1+ points (-150)
• Matheson to record 2+ blocked shots (-180)

Best odds: +450 via bet365 (0.25u -> 1.13u)

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💵 My betting record for NHL picks

All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 3

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💡 How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1

Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.

Game 1, always scary. How will these teams look, how will the playoff atmosphere impact the product on the ice. It's the usual 2 units (plus a small parlay) for me, split between the play on the moneyline and the total, as well as a bigger portion for my favorite player prop and a quarter unit on a bonus goal scorer. 

It's easy to get carried away with the concept of it being a big, exciting game. But often those are the ones you almost want to be more conservative with - the best sports betting sites have a year's worth of data and trading to get these prices sorted.

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📊 Live Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 odds

The moneyline prices here are nearly identical here on the morning of Game 1 as they were at open, with nearly every sportsbook oscillating between +155 and +160 for the visitors, and some not really moving at all. 

The total is where we've seen more movement, as operators go from 6.5 with the Under juiced to a flat 6 with the Over juiced and in some cases back again. I wouldn't knock a play on either, but just know at the flat 6 you're possibly setting yourself up for the push if we see a 5-1 or 4-2 game. Empty net goals in the playoffs can come early and in pairs sometimes as teams push. A slight majority of tickets are coming in on the Under.

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📈 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 betting trends

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🚑 Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 injuries

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📺 How to watch Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1

• Date: Sunday, April 19
• Puck drop: 5:45 p.m. ET
• Location: Benchmark International Arena (Tampa, Fla.)
• TV: TNT/truTV
• Streaming: HBO Max