NHL MVP Odds at Prediction Markets: Why You Should Back Nikita Kucherov to Win MVP Now

Don't blink for too long, or you'll likely miss a sizable shift in the 2026 Hart Trophy odds at prediction markets, which have seen Nikita Kucherov rise faster than lightning striking the ground.  

Nathan MacKinnon remains the clear favorite, which has been the case since the end of October, but for how long? It looks like Kucherov, the It Guy on campus, will turn this into one of the best MVP races in recent memory. It's a staggering development, considering the perceived iron grip MacKinnon has had on the market. 

🏆 2026 Hart Trophy odds at prediction markets  

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Since the end of October, excluding a one-day flash in November, MacKinnon has remained the most likely player to win MVP at prediction market Kalshi. It's a similar story with his team remaining on top of the Stanley Cup odds leaderboard.

On Dec. 22, after a run of 41 points in 21 games (20 goals, 21 assists), MacKinnon's likelihood of capturing his second Hart Trophy peaked at 74%.

While he has since dipped to an implied probability of 61%, which translates to -156 in American odds, he is still well clear of Macklin Celebrini (17%), who has been trading as the second-most likely MVP winner since Jan. 20. 

What happened to Connor McDavid's MVP odds?

The last 36 hours have been disproportionately volatile for McDavid, whose implied probability of winning fell from 19% to 8%. They have since recovered, though, with the 19% being restored. 

While McDavid's three games before the Olympic break, in which he scored just two points, didn't help his chances, it was more of a temporary reaction to Kucherov's meteoric ascent. 

Why you should back Nikita Kucherov to win MVP now

Kucherov is making a near-unprecedented run, ascending the MVP contender rankings faster than the probability movement graph above can keep up with. He still hasn't appeared on it despite leapfrogging McDavid. It's no wonder the Lighting are receiving the second-shortest Stanley Cup odds. 

And I have every intention of striking the iron while it's white-hot. 

Kucherov has climbed to the second-most likely player to win the Hart Trophy, trading at a 24% implied probability. His Yes price is 25 cents. So, if he wins his second Hart Trophy and you back Yes now, you'll earn 79 cents per $1 contract.

To put it in American odds terms, he has +317 odds to win. 

Based on his current trajectory and prolific scoring rate, his Yes price will skyrocket in the coming days and weeks. To elicit the best profit margin, you'll want to act now. That's if you believe the diminutive megastar can keep his electric run going.

He has 48 points in the 20 games since Dec. 22, 13 clear of second-leading scorer McDavid in that sample size.

That's an otherworldly 2.4 points per game. To further strike the point home, Kucherov scored 72 points in a 35-game span. Only McDavid (73), Jaromir Jagr (76), and Mario Lemieux thrice over (81, 93, 98) enjoyed a more prolific 35-game patch. 

And remember, this is a narrative-based award, which bodes well for a player splashed across more headlines than burger ads at McDonald's. 

How quickly has Kucherov ascended the MVP leaderboard? 

Just over a week ago, Kucherov had +10000 odds of winning, equating to a 0.99% probability. A 19% probability jump in just over a week is pretty much unheard of, which is more than enough evidence to spur me into action. 

📊 Hart Trophy odds 2026

Here are the Hart Trophy odds from Kalshi's prediction market. 

What is Kalshi and how does it work?

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange, overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, where you trade on the outcome of real-world events by buying and selling simple contracts that pay out $1 if a specific result happens and $0 if it does not. Think of it like betting with a stock-market-style order book instead of a sportsbook.

For example, if you select MacKinnon to win, it would, at current prices, be a “Yes” contract at 60 cents, which implies a 60-61% chance.

If they win the competition, that contract settles at $1, meaning you make 40 cents per contract. If they lose, it settles at $0.

Prices move based on supply and demand as traders buy and sell, so the market itself reflects the crowd’s collective probability. Unlike traditional betting, you can sell your position early to lock in profit or cut losses, and the focus is on forecasting outcomes rather than beating a fixed house line.

How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?

Prices are driven by supply and demand, you can exit positions early by selling, and odds are expressed as probabilities in cents rather than traditional spreads or moneylines. Sportsbooks, by contrast, offer fixed wagers with built-in vig and no ability to trade once the bet is placed.

Why should I wager on the MVP winner at Kalshi?

Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:

• Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
• Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
• Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
• Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.