2026 Olympic Hockey Odds: Why Can Each Favorite or Dark Horse Win Gold?
The quarterfinals are on the horizon as we profile the 2026 Olympic hockey odds, providing insight on why each favorite or dark horse can win the gold medal.
Canada and Team USA are off to perfect starts, as most people expected. The former looks the better team thus far, but anything can happen in single-elimination knockout games. Let's explore which primary factor will help the five teams with the highest likelihood of capturing gold.
๐ฅWhy each favorite & dark horse can win Olympic gold
Olympic hockey odds have two clear betting favorites: Canada and Team USA.
They make up about 77% of the trading action via the Olympic hockey odds at prediction markets for myriad of reasons. Their rosters are more jam-packed with superstars and elite talent than a Tim Hortons' Boston cream donut.
However, anything can happen once the quarterfinals commence. While I'm backing Canada to win gold, 60 minutes of hockey can have more twists, turns, and unexpected moments than a who-done-it murder mystery.
The five teams with a viable chance of snatching gold are: Canada, Team USA, Sweden, Finland, and Czechia. But what is the biggest reason those nations can win the first best-on-best Olympic hockey tournament since Sochi 2014?
Need help with ways to wager? Dustin Saracini breaks down how to bet on the men's Olympic hockey tournament.
๐จ๐ฆ Canada: World's best forwards
This comparison isn't even close.
Three of the four Hart Trophy odds favorites - Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, and Macklin Celebrini - are Canadian. Good luck stopping all three. The other Hart Trophy betting favorite, Nikita Kucherov, isn't able to participate due to Russia's Olympic ban.
If you ask me, Canada improved over the last week with the addition of reigning Conn Smyte Trophy winner Sam Bennett, replacing the injured Anthony Cirelli.
Team Canada forwards
| Player | NHL points | Rank on NHL leaderboard | Stanley Cup(s) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | 96 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | 93 | 2 | 1 |
| Macklin Celebrini | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Suzuki | 65 | 12 | 0 |
| Mark Stone | 60 | T19 | 1 |
| Sidney Crosby | 59 | T22 | 3 |
| Mitch Marner | 58 | T25 | 0 |
| Sam Reinhart | 55 | 34 | 2 |
| Brandon Hagel | 54 | T35 | 2 |
| Brad Marchand | 50 | T46 | 2 |
| Tom Wilson | 49 | T48 | 1 |
| Seth Jarvis | 43 | T80 | 0 |
| Sam Bennett | 42 | T83 | 2 |
| Bo Horvat | 40 | T95 | 0 |
Four of the NHL's top scorers are Canadian Olympians (McDavid, MacKinnon, Celebrini, Nick Suzuki), while Jack Eichel is the only American going to the Olympics among the top 12. He's tied for ninth with 68 points.
Germany's Leon Draisaitl is in fifth, Czechia's David Pastrnak is in sixth, and Finland's Mikko Rantanen is eighth.
๐บ๐ธ USA: World's best defense
Sweden and Canada boast a wealth of talent and experience on the blue line, but Team USA has arguably the best defensive contingent. It includes Quinn Hughes and Zach Werenski, two of the three Norris Trophy odds betting favorites.
The Carolina Hurricanes' Jaccob Slavin is arguably the world's best at nullifying the threat of the opposition's best player. Slavin, 31, is the only member of the eight-man crew over 30.
Charlie McAvoy is also renowned for his shutdown ability and rough-and-tumble physicality.
Hughes didn't play at the 4 Nations Face-Off, while McAvoy featured briefly before sustaining a serious shoulder injury. Their presence will markedly improve the blue line.
Team USA defense
| Player | Team | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber | Wild | 23 |
| Quinn Hughes | Wild | 26 |
| Zach Werenski | Blue Jackets | 28 |
| Noah Hanifin | Golden Knights | 29 |
| Charlie McAvoy | Bruins | 28 |
| Jackson LaCombe | Ducks | 25 |
| Jake Sanderson | Senators | 23 |
| Jaccob Slavin | Hurricanes | 31 |
🏒 The best-on-best factor
Don't just look at a country's history book, dig deeper.
- Which teams feature a special teams edge? Prioritize teams that feature elite power play units and penalty killers at the NHL level
- Goaltending is the great equalizer: An elite netminder can mask flaws, and players like Connor Hellebuyck can change a game in a hurry
๐ธ๐ช Sweden: How are Sweden's goaltenders playing?
Filip Gustavsson has made way for Jacob Markstrom after his poor performances in the opening two games. Markstrom won his first start between the pipes, helping Sweden beat Slovakia 5-3.
It now looks like it's his net to lose, and it will be interesting to see how he acquits himself in the forthcoming elimination games. He didn't play particularly well at last year's World Championships, with a .894 save percentage across six games.
I thought Gustavsson would have been a difference-maker for Sweden, but I was wrong. It's up to Markstrom to rise to the occasion. That is probably wishful thinking, though.
๐ซ๐ฎ Finland: Familiarity & heightened chemistry
Roope Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, and Mikael Granlund should form the first line. The former two play alongside one another in Dallas, while Granlund was their teammate last season.
With most lines freshly formed, having three players so familiar with each other should provide a palpable advantage.
Teuvo Terรคvรคinen and Sebastian Aho used to play together in Carolina, so there is a chance they'll reunite, too.
On the blue line, Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell, who form one of the most formidable partnerships in the NHL, again with the Dallas Stars, will go into battle together again, this time representing their country.
The Finns' Big D familiarity bodes well for the team receiving the third-shortest Olympic hockey odds.
๐จ๐ฟ Czechia: Entering Olympics with hottest goaltender
While I wouldn't dare shortchange David Pastrnak's influence, Czechia's hopes of winning gold will rely on Lukas Dostal, who enters as the world's hottest goaltender.
The Anaheim Ducks No. 1 is 8-1-0 in his last nine games, sporting a sterling .930 save percentage and 1.96 goals-against average. He has the Ducks in a wild-card spot, something few thought possible at the start of the season.
If Dostal maintains that level in the Olympics, Czechia, whose fifth-shortest odds stand at +2500 at BetMGM, represents the best dark-horse pick.
The latest 2026 Olympic hockey odds from FanDuel.
| Team | Odds | Implied probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | -130 | 56.52% | $7.69 |
| USA | +210 | 67.74% | $21 |
| Finland | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Sweden | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Czechia | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Slovakia | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| Switzerland | +6500 | 1.52% | $650 |
| Germany | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Latvia | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Denmark | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| France | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Italy | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
๐ 2026 Winter Olympics hockey schedule
Here is the schedule for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, which will run from Feb. 11 to Feb. 22.
| Round | Dates | Times |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary | Feb. 11 - Feb. 15 | 6:10am ET/10:40am ET/3:10pm ET/3:10pm ET |
| Men's qualification playoffs | Feb. 17 | 6:10am ET/6:10am ET/10:40am ET/3:10pm ET |
| Men's quarterfinals | Feb. 18 | 6:10am ET/8:10am ET/10:40am ET/3:10pm ET |
| Menโs semifinals | Fri. Feb. 20 | 10:40am ET/3:10pm ET |
| Menโs bronze | Sat. Feb. 21 | 2:40 p.m. ET |
| Men's gold medal game | Sun. Feb. 22. | 7:10 a.m. ET |
๐๏ธ Canada Olympic hockey schedule
Game 1: ๐จ๐ฟ Czechia vs. ๐จ๐ฆ Canada, Feb. 12, 10:40 a.m. ET
Game 2: ๐จ๐ฆ Canada vs. ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland, Feb. 13, 3:10 p.m. ET
Game 3: ๐จ๐ฆ Canada vs. ๐ซ๐ท France, Feb. 15, 10:40 a.m. ET
๐๏ธ USA Olympic hockey schedule
Game 1: ๐ฑ๐ป Latvia vs. ๐บ๐ธ USA , Feb. 12, 3:10 p.m. ET
Game 2: ๐บ๐ธ USA vs. ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark, Feb. 14, 3:10 p.m. ET
Game 3: ๐บ๐ธ USA vs. ๐ฉ๐ช Germany , Feb. 15, 3:10 p.m. ET
๐ What are the 2026 Winter Olympics hockey groups?
| Group A | Group B | Group C |
|---|---|---|
| ๐จ๐ฆ Canada | ๐ซ๐ฎ Finland | ๐บ๐ธ USA |
| ๐จ๐ฟ Czechia | ๐ธ๐ฐ Slovakia | ๐ฉ๐ช Germany |
| ๐จ๐ญ Switzerland | ๐ธ๐ช Sweden | ๐ฉ๐ฐ Denmark |
| ๐ซ๐ท France | ๐ฎ๐น Italy | ๐ฑ๐ป Latvia |
2026 Winter Olympics hockey FAQs
Who is the betting favorite to win 2026 Winter Olympics?
With -130 odds at FanDuel, Canada is the betting favorite to win the 2026 Winter Olympics. Those odds imply a 56.52% probability, according to our odds calculator.
Who won the last Olympic hockey tournament?
Finland won the Beijing 2022 Olympic tournament. However, it wasn't a best-on-best tournament, with NHL players prohibited from participating.
When is the 2026 Winter Olympic hockey tournament?
The 2026 Winter Olympic hockey tournament takes place from Feb. 11 to Feb. 22.
When is the 2026 Winter Olympic hockey gold medal game?
The gold medal game occurs on Sunday, Feb. 22, at 7:10 a.m. ET.
Who won the last best-on-best Olympic hockey tournament?
Canada won the last best-on-best Olympic hockey tournament in 2014 at the Sochi Olympics.
How many players are on an Olympic hockey roster?
The maximum number of players on an Olympic men's hockey roster is 25, and the maximum number for an Olympic women's hockey roster is 23. However, each team can only dress 20 skaters and two goaltenders for each game.
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