USA vs. Sweden Prediction & Best Bets: Olympic Women's Hockey Semifinal Preview
The 2026 Winter Olympics women's hockey has been a masterclass in American depth, and today's tilt with a familiar foe should be little more than another step to the battle for gold. Team USA enters today's semifinal with by outscoring opponents 26-1 through five games, but Sweden is a dangerous underdog.
My USA vs. Sweden prediction and best bets break down the rematch of the 2006 Olympics, when Sweden toppled the Americans in the semifinals. While Team USA is a -4500 moneyline betting favorite and is giving up 4.5 on the puck line, they won't take Sweden lightly. Puck drop is 10:40 a.m. ET, streaming on Peacock.
🏒 USA vs. Sweden prediction: Olympic women's hockey semifinal
Our expert Olympic hockey picks are based on the latest betting odds at the best sports betting sites.
| Bet type | Bet | Best odds | Confidence | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puck line bet | USA -4.5 | -140 via BetMGM | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 1u |
| Total | Over 6.5 | +100 via BetMGM | ⭐⭐⭐ | 0.5u |
| Player prop | Hannah Bilka anytime goal | +110 via FanDuel | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ | 0.5u |
💰 USA vs. Sweden best bet: USA -4.5 (-140)
This USA team is one of the best women's Olympic hockey teams ever constructed, and it will prove it again in the semifinals against the second-best statistical team in these Games.
Sweden has won all four games, outscoring opponents 18-1. While impressive, Sweden enjoyed life in a notably easier group. It will enter the semifinals with just one challenging game under its belt, a 2-0 win over Czechia in the semifinals. Team USA, meanwhile, smashed Canada 5-0 in the preliminary round and has outscored opponents 21-0. Game. Set. Match.
Score prediction: USA 6, Sweden 1
🔥 Best USA vs. Sweden prop bet: Hannah Bilka anytime goal (+110)
Scoring Hannah Bilka at plus-money odds to light the lamp feels like a win. Leading Team USA with four goals, Bilka netted three times in the previous two games, scoring twice against Canada and also lighting the lamp in the quarterfinals against Italy.
She has the second-best shooting percentage (20%), which can be perceived positively and negatively. You could say she's in for a regression, but I'm more on the optimistic side, backing her accuracy and ruthlessness to continue. I'd play this bet to even-money +100 odds.
🥅 The Swedish Brick Wall
Ebba Svensson Träff has emerged as a an absolute wall in net for the Swedes, and while I think Team USA will get the best of her squad, she's posted a strong tournament so far. She's posted back-to-back shutouts, ending the Group stage with a 3-0 mark and shutting out Czechia in the quarterfinals.
🖐️ Why betting the spread is the best option for USA vs. Sweden
Team USA won all four of its games by at least five goals, including its preliminary contest against Canada. In fact, the United States won all three preliminary games by the same 5-0 score, following those dominant performances with a 6-0 quarterfinals victory over Italy.
Sweden has the second-best defense in the tournament, at least statistically. It conceded only one goal in four games. That came in a 6-1 victory over Italy. Given their exquisite defenses, backing the Under seems like the best play.
However, Sweden isn't battle-tested and will likely struggle to withstand Team USA's unrelenting attack. If they do win by five again, which I believe will be the case, the only possible scenario where the Under hits is 5-0. But how feasible is four out of five games finishing with the same 5-0 score, and for how long can Team USA's shutout streak continue?
That's why I'm backing USA -4.5 and the Over.
📺 How to watch USA vs. Sweden
- Date: Monday, Feb. 16
- Puck drop: 10:40 a.m. ET
- Location: Milano Santagiulia Arena (Milan, Italy)
- TV: Peacock
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