🏝️ Who Will Win Survivor 50? Best Odds at Prediction Markets
Another episode of Survivor 50: In the Hands of the Fans is in the books, and former finalists Angelina Keeley and Charlie Davis have been eliminated from the game.
There are 17 players left heading into Episode 6: The Blood Moon, and with the merge promised in the episode preview, we're looking at prediction markets for who will win Survivor 50. Aubry Bracco is still the overwhelming favorite to win, with her odds sitting at 84%.
📊 Who will win Survivor 50?
Following episode 5 of Survivor 50, Aubry Bracco is still a huge favorite, trading at 84 cents to win. It was another quiet episode for Bracco after bonding with Tiffany Nicole Ervin in episode 3. Still, the little that we did see of her featured her speaking with Coach Wade, whom she deemed to be the leader of her tribe. With the Billie Eilish Boomerang Idol in her pocket, Bracco is well-positioned to make a deep run post-merge.
You can currently buy Bracco "yes" for 84 cents, but the value seems to be decreasing by the day. In most cases, the price in cents for the "yes" directly matches the chance an option has of being successful. However, in rare instances, there is a cent or two discrepancy.
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Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
What do those percentage chances mean?
For many who are new to prediction markets, it's handy to put the Kalshi percentage chances into American odds. We do this by using an odds converter, converting the percentage chances into implied odds. Here's a snapshot of all the player's chances of winning after the premiere, along with their American odds.
| Player | Kalshi percentage chance | American odds |
|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 84% | -624 |
| Cirie Fields | 11% | +809 |
| Rizo Velovic | 3% | +3233 |
| Joe Hunter | <1% | +10000 |
| Jonathan Young | <1% | +10000 |
| Coach Wade | <1% | +10000 |
| Christian Hubicki | <1% | +10000 |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | <1% | +10000 |
| Colby Donaldson | <1% | +10000 |
| Dee Valladares | <1% | +10000 |
| Emily Flippen | <1% | +10000 |
| Genevieve Mushaluk | <1% | +10000 |
| Kamilla Karthigesu | <1% | +10000 |
| Mike White | <1% | +10000 |
| Ozzy Lusth | <1% | +10000 |
| Rick Devens | <1% | +10000 |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | <1% | +10000 |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | <1% | +10000 |
🔮 Survivor 50 prediction
Bracco is the leader here, and there are plenty of reasons for that. She has plenty of experience with three seasons under her belt (32, 34, 38), including a runner-up finish in her debut and a final five showing in her second appearance. However, at 84 cents, there's almost no value in backing her. Therefore, I'm looking to beat her.
After episode 5, I'm picking Rizo Velovic to win Survivor 50. Not only did Velovic survive when it looked like all odds were against him, but he also managed to hold onto his idol, and he bonded so well with Cirie Fields that she told him about her extra vote.
Velovic is one of the most dangerous players with an idol in his hand, as he showed during Season 49 when he used it as a tool to help his alliance overcome a massive deficit. Perhaps Velovic will be feeling a little too good about himself after orchestrating his first blindside of the season, but based on who he's aligned with and his idol, he very well could be in this game until the very end.
Long shot pick
14 of the 17 remaining players have odds of less than 1% to win this game. Therefore, finding a long shot is easy, it's just about picking the right one.
With Christian Hubicki's name coming up quite a bit, I'm jumping off his bandwagon and placing my support behind Colby Donaldson. Donaldson hasn't gone to tribal council yet this season, but he has had many meaningful discussions with tribemates, including Coach and Joe Hunter.
There's still a long way to go, and Donaldson still doesn't have a vote, but if the final three were to be him, Coach, and Hunter, the runner-up from the Australian Outback would be positioned to redeem himself 48 seasons after losing by one vote.
🏝️ Who is competing
Here is a look at the 24 players that took to the beaches of Fiji to compete in season 50, listed alphabetically.
| Contestant | Age | Appearances (season number) | Best finish | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 39 | 3 (32, 34, 38) | Runner-up season 32 | |
| 31 | 1 (46) | 6th jury member season 46 | Voted out Episode 3 | |
| 27 | 1 (46) | Runner-up season 46 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Rick Devens | 41 | 1 (38) | 13th jury member season 38 | |
| Colby Donaldson | 51 | 3 (2, 8, 20) | Runner-up season 2 | |
| Tiffany Ervin | 34 | 1 (46) | 10th jury member season 46 | |
| Cirie Fields | 54 | 4 (12, 16, 20, 34) + Australia (13) | 8th jury member season 16 | |
| Emily Flippen | 30 | 1 (45) | 5th jury member season 45 | |
| 31 | 1 (48) | Winner season 48 | Medically removed Episode 1 | |
| Chrissy Hofbeck | 54 | 1 (35) | Runner-up season 35 | |
| Christian Hubicki | 39 | 1 (37) | 7th jury member season 37 | |
| Joe Hunter | 45 | 1 (48) | Second runner-up season 48 | |
| Kamila Karthigesu | 31 | 1 (48) | 8th jury member season 48 | |
| 35 | 1 (37) | Second runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 5 | |
| Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick | 45 | 3 (10, 11, 20) | Runner-up season 11 | |
| 47 | 2 (1, 8) | 7th jury member season 8 | Voted out Episode 1 | |
| 31 | 1 (49) | Winner season 49 | Voted out Episode 2 | |
| Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth | 43 | 4 (13, 16, 23, 34) | Runner-up season 13 | |
| Genevieve Mushaluk | 34 | 1 (47) | 7th jury member season 47 | |
| Dianelys "Dee" Valladares | 28 | 1 (45) | Winner season 45 | |
| Rizo Velovic | 25 | 1 (49) | 8th jury member season 49 | |
| Benjamin "Coach" Wade | 53 | 3 (18, 20, 23) | Runner-up season 23 | |
| 54 | 1 (37) | Runner-up season 37 | Voted out Episode 4 | |
| Jonathan Young | 32 | 1 (42) | 8th jury member season 42 |
The season features three previous winners, all from recent seasons: Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49. We also have eight runners-up, and two second-runners-up.
Cirie and Ozzy both return for a fifth season of the American version of the game, although Cirie also has an Australian season under her belt.
🗳️ Fan votes
Two fan votes have already been revealed: the tribe colors will be orange, teal, and magenta, and the finale will return to be done live in Los Angeles.
We found out during the premiere that fans voted not to give the tribes rice or supplies. We also saw an idol appear, showing fans voted for them to remain in action, and we saw a dynamic advantage to come out.
In episode 3, we also learned that fans voted "Yes" for a tribe swap, as the original tribes were disbanded and three new tribes of seven were created.
While the immunity necklace wasn't revealed, we did see the tribal immunity idols come in the shape of birds.
Here are a look at some votes remaining to be disclosed:
- Final four fire-making -> "Keep it" or "Lose it"
- Final four challenge -> "Pinball Wizard" or "The Obstacle Course" or "Simmotion"
- Tribe switch -> "Yes" or "No"
- Immunity necklace design -> "A medallion" or "A decorative bird"
- Twists -> "I don't list twists - keep them rare!" or "I love twists - bring them on!"
📖 How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
Unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi users trade directly with each other in an open market rather than betting against a house. Prices are expressed in cents as implied probabilities, and positions can be sold early to lock in gains or limit losses. For entertainment events like the Oscars, the focus is on forecasting outcomes, not beating a fixed line, offering more flexibility and transparency than traditional betting.
💡 Why should I wager on Survivor 50 at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
❓ Survivor 50 FAQs
Who is the favorite to win Survivor 50?
Aubry Bracco is trading as the favorite to win Survivor 50 on Kalshi, with odds sitting over 85% following the second episode.
When does Survivor 50 start?
Survivor 50 started on Feb. 25, 2026.
How do I watch Survivor 50?
You can watch the Survivor 50 live on CBS, or stream on Paramount+. Episodes air at 8 p.m. ET.
Which returning winners are appearing on Survivor 50?
Dee Valladares in season 45, Kyle Fraser season 48, and Savannah Louie in season 49 are the three previous winners returning for Survivor season 50.
Who was the first player voted out on Survivor 50?
Jenna Lewis-Dougherty was the first player voted out. She was the lone contestant from Season 1.
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