⚽ Argentina World Cup 2026 Odds & Predictions: Can The Holders Repeat? Is Messi Injured?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, beating France on penalties in one of the most exciting finals of all time; can they repeat at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Right now, one of the biggest questions surrounding the club is the actual status of Messi.
If the superstar's "muscular fatigue" is something more nefarious, will that impact the Argentina World Cup odds? Even if he's full-go, can a 38-year-old actually lead his country to victory again? Can the dangerous youth of the squad make a push either way and pay off their +900 odds?
📊 Argentina World Cup odds 2026
The best World Cup betting sites will offer plenty of markets, but here are some of the best from DraftKings; odds updated May 26 and subject to change:
| Market | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To win outright (Champion) | +900 | 10% | $90 |
| To reach final | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| To reach semi final | +190 | 34.48% | $19 |
| To reach quarter final | +100 | 50% | $10 |
| To reach last 16 | -250 | 71.43% | $4 |
Stage of elimination
In a similar vein you can bet where a team will be eliminated as opposed to how far they'll advance in the tournament.
| Stage of elimination | Odds | Probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 32 | +160 | 38.46% | $16 |
| Last 16 | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Group Stage | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Quarter-finals | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Semi-finals | +500 | 16.67% | $50 |
| Runner-up | +950 | 9.52% | $95 |
| Outright Winner | +900 | 10% | $90 |
🏆 Argentina World Cup 2026 predictions and best bets
Argentina to be eliminated in the last quarter-finals (+425)
Argentina not finishing first in Group J with Algeria, Austria, and Jordan as their opponents would be shocking. That would set up a Round of 32 match with the second-placed team in Group H. That's almost for sure going to be Uruguay. That's no cakewalk - Uruguay is the No. 17 team in the FIFA ranks - but it should be a game that Argentina gets past. The Round of 16 brings Turkey into my bracket, which is an easier run-in (on paper) than Uruguay. Then, things get snarly.
I won't go full unit on this type of wager - Argentina can absolutely make a run to the final stages of this tournament. But a clash with the fifth-ranked team in the world, Portugal, is certainly a real possibility. It's too tempting to get this price.
🔬 SBR EDGE: The Tactical Unlock
The Pick: Argentina to be eliminated in the quarter-finals (+425)
The Why: It's just a play on the price, as I see both Argentina and Portugal reaching the quarter-finals, and I think that the +425 payout is just too good to pass up for such a solid opponent.
Market boundaries: Buy-up to: +400 | Allocation: 0.5 units
⚽ Argentina World Cup 2026 roster
Lionel Scaloni's squad is loaded with talent, but that's no shock: the Argentinians are the reigning champs.
| Player (Position) | Parent Club |
|---|---|
| Emiliano Martinez (Goalkeeper) | Aston Villa |
| Juan Musso (Goalkeeper) | Atletico Madrid |
| Geronimo Rulli (Goalkeeper) | Marseille |
| Leonardo Balerdi (Defender) | Marseille |
| Lisandro Martinez (Defender) | Manchester United |
| Facundo Medina (Defender) | Lens |
| Nahuel Molina (Defender) | Atletico Madrid |
| Gonzalo Montiel (Defender) | River Plate |
| Nicolas Otamendi (Defender) | Benfica |
| Cristian Romero (Defender) | Tottenham Hotspur |
| Nicolas Tagliafico (Defender) | Lyon |
| Valentin Barco (Midfielder) | Strasbourg |
| Rodrigo De Paul (Midfielder) | Inter Miami |
| Enzo Fernandez (Midfielder) | Chelsea |
| Giovani Lo Celso (Midfielder) | Real Betis |
| Alexis Mac Allister (Midfielder) | Liverpool |
| Exequiel Palacios (Midfielder) | Bayer Leverkusen |
| Leandro Paredes (Midfielder) | Boca Juniors |
| Nico Paz (Midfielder) | Como |
| Thiago Almada (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
| Julian Alvarez (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
| Nicolas Gonzalez (Forward) | Juventus |
| Jose Lopez (Forward) | Palmeiras |
| Lautaro Martinez (Forward) | Inter Milan |
| Lionel Messi (Forward) | Inter Miami |
| Giuliano Simeone (Forward) | Atletico Madrid |
🩼 Is Messi actually injured?
Soccer teams are notorious for being cagey about injury reports, so when Messi left in the 73rd minute of Sunday's win over Philadelphia, concerns began to grow. Inter Miami has claimed that the left hamstring issue is purely "muscle fatigue" and that his June 16 availability is not in question, but a 38-year-old with a hamstring issue of any sort is something worth monitoring.
Argentina's World Cup Group Stage schedule
Argentina's three games against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan are set for the following dates:
- June 16, 2026: vs. Algeria (Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Mo.)
- June 22, 2026: vs. Austria (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
- June 27, 2026: vs. Jordan (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
❓ FIFA World Cup 2026 FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the World Cup?
Spain is the World Cup odds favorite, with odds of +450 at bet365. Those odds imply an 18.18% win probability.
Who won the last World Cup?
Argentina won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Where is the 2026 World Cup?
Canada, Mexico, and the United States, will host the 2026 World Cup, with 16 cities holding matches. The host cities are:
- Toronto (Canada)
- Vancouver (Canada)
- Guadalajara (Mexico)
- Mexico City (Mexico)
- Monterrey (Mexico)
- Atlanta
- Boston
- Dallas
- Houston
- Kansas City
- Los Angeles
- Miami
- New York / New Jersey
- Philadelphia
- Seattle
- San Francisco / Bay Area
When is the 2026 World Cup?
The 2026 World Cup is set to run from June 11, 2026, until the final on July 19, 2026.
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