Best Lionel Messi Props & Odds: Today's World Cup Expert Prop Picks (July 3)
Cape Verde was impressive in the group stage, but the latest Lionel Messi props and odds highlight that oddsmakers expect Argentina's superstar to have an excellent game against them in the Round of 32.
Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., is set for 6 p.m. ET (FOX, Telemundo, FOX One). Below, my World Cup best bets explain why there is no reason to fade Messi in this match, as he and Argentina are well-positioned not just to move on, but to dominate an inferior opponent.
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β½Best Lionel Messi props: July 3
See all of our experts' World Cup picks based on the latest World Cup odds and favorites
| π° Best bets | π Best odds | βοΈ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi Over 2.5 shots on target | +105 via DraftKings | 2u -> 2.1u |
| Lionel Messi to score 2 or more goals | +240 via FanDuel | 1.5u -> 3.6u |
| Lionel Messi Over 5.5 shots | -115 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 1.3u |
Total wagered: 5 units | Max profit: 7 units
‼️ Cape Verde's defense
Cape Verde's defense was solid during the group stage, but this is a defense that allows a lot of opportunities. Don't get blinded by Cape Verde shutting out Spain, instead, look at how many times Spain should have scored in that game.
Messi is the best finisher in the world, and with six goals already at this World Cup, I fully expect him to create and take advantage of a lot of opportunities against this defense.
π° Best Lionel Messi prop prediction
Lionel Messi Over 2.5 shots on target (+105) vs. Cape Verde
Messi didn't enter Argentina's final group stage match until the 60th minute, and yet, he still managed two shots, one of which was on target and found the back of the net. Back in the starting lineup, I love getting this prop at better than +100.
Messi recorded four shots on target in each of his first two games at this World Cup. And while Cape Verde only allowed two goals during the group stage, opponents managed 12 shots on target, with Spain recording seven.
💵 SBR Edge: Messi isn't afraid to take chances
While Messi has only played six matches for Argentina in the last two years, he's been excellent in the MLS with Inter Miami this season. He has at least three shots on target in five of his last seven games, and he has at least five shots in six of his last seven.
π₯ More Lionel Messi props for Friday
Lionel Messi to score 2 or more goals (+240) vs. Cape Verde
No matter how likely Messi is to score in this match, the fact remains that there is almost no value in taking him to do that at -215. Therefore, I'm taking the Golden Boot favorite to score twice in this match.
Messi has scored six times at this World Cup, with multiple goals in two of his three matches. The only time he didn't score multiple goals, he entered in the 60th minute and still scored once.
While Cape Verde shutting out Spain is impressive, the Spanish had plenty of chances in that game, finishing with 2.10 expected goals. Giving Messi that many chances would prove disastrous for Cape Verde.
Lionel Messi Over 5.5 shots (-115)
Messi already has 15 shots at this World Cup, with at least six in each of his starts. While Cape Verde only allowed six shots to Saudi Arabia, that has a lot more to do with Saudi Arabia's style of play than the talent of Cape Verde's defense.
Cape Verde allowed 23 shots to Spain, then followed up that performance by allowing 16 shots to Uruguay. This is a team that allows opponents to possess the ball, and that's not going to change here. My only concern is that Messi could be pulled early if this game turns into a blowout.
ποΈ Most-bet World Cup goal-scorers today
Betting insights via BetMGM.
Most-bet anytime goal-scorers
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | -220 |
| Mohamed Salah | Egypt | +195 |
| Luis Diaz | Colombia | +150 |
| Omar Marmoush | Egypt | +250 |
| Lautaro Martinez | Argentina | -130 |
Most-bet first goal-scorers
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | +170 |
| Mohamed Salah | Egypt | +425 |
| Lautaro Martinez | Argentina | +260 |
| Omar Marmoush | Egypt | +525 |
| Nestory Irankunda | Australia | +600 |
π World Cup best bets today
See all of our experts' soccer picks and the latest World Cup odds and favorites.
The tournament continues today with three Round of 32 matches, and we're breaking it all down with our World Cup predictions today:
- World Cup parlay today
- Australia vs. Egypt prediction
- Argentina vs. Cape Verde prediction
- Lionel Messi player props
- Colombia vs. Ghana prediction
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