⚽ PSG vs. Liverpool Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match
Paris Saint-Germain's path toward retaining their European crown features a difficult Champions League quarterfinal clash with Liverpool.
My PSG vs. Liverpool prediction breaks down Wednesday's scintillating first-leg encounter at the Parce des Princes in France, where the action begins at 3 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
The Ligue 1 giants are the clear favorite, with three-way moneyline odds set at -138, while +333 Liverpool are getting little chance of upsetting PSG.
⚽ PSG vs. Liverpool predictions
See our experts' soccer picks based on the latest Champions League odds:
| Predictions | Best odds | Bet size | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG ML | -138 via DraftKings | 2 units -> 1.5 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Over 2.5 | -210 via DraftKings | 1 units -> 0.5 units | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Over 1.5 shots on target | +160 via DraftKings | 1 units -> 1.6 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Ousmane Dembele anytime goal-scorer | +130 via DraftKings | 0.5 units -> 0.7 units | ⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 4.3 units
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💰 PSG vs. Liverpool best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Over 2.5 goals (-210)
We're banking on this eye-catching game to live up to the hype and feature plenty of goals.
Paris Saint-Germain's matches have hit the over (2.5 total goals) in 75% of their Champions League games this season, with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Vitinha leading the team in Champions League scoring.
Meanwhile the pressure will be on Liverpool to perform well after getting humiliated in the FA Cup last weekend. With Mohamed Salah, Hugo Ekitike, and Cody Gakpo, Liverpool will get chances to maintain their 2.4 goals per game in the Champions League.
There should be space for world-class players on either side of the pitch to exploit, as both teams will come out firing in hopes of taking an advantage into the second leg at Anfield.
Score prediction: PSG 2, Liverpool 1
🔥 Best PSG vs. Liverpool prop bet
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, PSG, Over 1.5 shots on target (+160)
Liverpool are going to have their hands full trying to contain Kvaratskhelia.
The Georgia international could be poised to have an eventful night against a Liverpool team still reeling from their 4-0 defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup.
Kvaratskhelia, who leads PSG attackers with seven Champions League goals, has provided a spark in PSG's attacking formation of late, registering over 1.5 shots in four of his last six appearances. He's averaging 1.28 shots on target per 90 minutes on the field.
The 25-year-old even managed a pair of shots on target during a 29-minute appearance in the first leg of PSG's 8-3 aggregate win over Chelsea in the last round. Kvaratskhelia had three goals and an assist over two legs against Chelsea.
🙌 Best PSG vs. Liverpool goal-scorer prediction
Ousmane Dembele, PSG (+130)
With Bradley Barcola sidelined with an injury, Ousmane Dembele will be Paris Saint-Germain's main threat to score in Wednesday's match.
Although Dembele only has two Champions League goals this season, the 2025 Ballon d'Or winner should see an increase in shot opportunities as the primary outlet for PSG's transitional play with Barcola out.
Liverpool's use of a high defensive line could also benefit Dembele, who's a master of creating one-on-one scenarios thanks to his ability to time runs.
Dembele has also developed a reputation as a nemesis for English clubs after scoring several important goals in recent years during knockout games. He most recently chipped in a goal during PSG's rout of Chelsea in the round of 16.
🚀 PSG vs. Liverpool same-game parlay
Despite leaving the moneyline out, the focus is still heavily on Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday. We're aiming to capitalize on this being a high-scoring affair, but with a focus on PSG doing most of the scoring against a battered opponent.
💵 PSG vs. Liverpool SGP picks
- Over 2.5 (-210)
- Kvaratskhelia Over 1.5 shots on target (+160)
- Dembele anytime goal-scorer (+130)
Best odds: +550 via DraftKings (0.2 units -> 1.1 units)
⚖️ How I'm handicapping PSG vs. Liverpool
Liverpool could be in trouble again. The Champions League is Liverpool's last hope for silverware this season, so a positive start Wednesday will be vital to keep their campaign alive.
But that hope won't last long if Arne Slot's men can't pick themselves up off the canvas after getting pummelled 4-0 by Manchester City in the FA Cup last weekend.
Making matters worse for the Reds is that the Parc des Princes has been a fortress for PSG this season. Luis Enrique's talented teams has only lost two of the 19 games hosted in Paris this season in Ligue and Champions League play.
PSG vs. Liverpool key stats
| HOST | VISITOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 34 | 24 |
| Goals against | 17 | 9 |
| Shots on target | 90 | 82 |
| Possession | 63.5% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 5 |
📊 PSG vs. Liverpool odds
We're not expecting the line to move too much here. Barring a late injury to a key member of the PSG squad, the hosts should have no problem taking care of business in the French capital.
🆚 PSG vs. Liverpool projected lineups
Here are Wednesday's projected lineups for PSG vs. Liverpool; lineups subject to change:
| PSG | Liverpool |
|---|---|
| Safonov | Mamardashvili |
| Hakimi | Frimpong |
| Marquinhos | Konate |
| Pacho | Van Dijk |
| Mendes | Kerkez |
| Zaire-Emery | Gravenberch |
| Vitinha | Mac Allister |
| Neves | Salah |
| Kvaratskhelia | Soboszlai |
| Dembele | Wirtz |
| Doue | Ekitike |
📈 PSG vs. Liverpool betting trends
| PSG | Statistic | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| 7-3-2 | Season record | 7-0-3 |
| 3-0-3 | H2H record | 3-0-3 |
| L-W-W-W-W | Last 5 games | L-D-W-L-L |
| Won 3-1 vs. Toulouse | Previous result | Lost 4-0 vs. Manchester City |
| Champions League holders have been eliminated in the quarterfinals in four of the last five seasons. | Key stat | Liverpool have already registered their most losses in a single season (15) since 2014-15. |
It might not be wise to completely write off Liverpool here. The squad is still stacked with elite attacking talent, most of whom are barely a year removed from winning the Premier League last season.
But the team's dip in form this season is undeniable, and worrying for bettors. Inconsistent results this season make them a risky play on the road against the reigning Champions League winners, who are fresh off dismantling Liverpool's Premier League rivals Chelsea.
🌤️ PSG vs. Liverpool weather
Conditions will be perfect for a high-stakes fixture in Paris on Wednesday, with the temperature set to be around 73. There's no rain in the forecast and winds are expected to be light.
📺 How to watch PSG vs. Liverpool
- Date: Wednesday, April 8
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Parc des Princes
- TV: Paramount+
❓ PSG vs. Liverpool FAQ
Who is favored to win PSG vs. Liverpool?
PSG are a -138 betting favorite against Liverpool on Wednesday.
Who is the best PSG vs. Liverpool bet?
The best bets for PSG vs. Liverpool include Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Over 1.5 shots on target (+160) and Ousmane Dembele to score (+130).
Where to watch PSG vs. Liverpool in the US and Canada?
You can watch PSG vs. Liverpool on Paramount+ in the United States, or stream the game on DAZN in Canada.
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