World Cup Predictions Today: Best Bets & Prop Picks for Saturday, July 4
The first two Round of 16 matches will take place today, as I make my best World Cup predictions for Saturday. The round kicks off with Canada taking on Morocco. Below, I explain why I don't expect Canada's offense to have any success against Morocco's defense.
The other match features France taking on upset-minded Paraguay. While Paraguay was able to pull off a shocker against Germany, my World Cup best bets don't expect a similar result against the tournament favorites.
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⚽ World Cup predictions today: July 4
See all of our experts' World Cup picks based on the latest World Cup odds and favorites.
| 💰 Best bets | 📊 Best odds | ⚖️ Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| France Over 2.5 goals | +106 via DraftKings | 3u -> 3.18u |
| Kylian Mbappe 2 or more goals | +280 via FanDuel | 1u -> 2.8u |
| Canada Under 0.5 goals | +132 via FanDuel | 2.5u -> 3.3u |
Total wagered: 6.5 units | Max profit: 9.28 units
💰 Best World Cup prediction today
France Over 2.5 goals (+106) vs. Paraguay
Paraguay's defense just shut down the German offense, but I give them very little chance of stopping France. Paraguay allowed four goals to the US in the first game of the group stage, and while the defense has conceded just one goal in its last three games, France has been unstoppable.
Led by Mbappe, France has scored at least three goals in all four World Cup matches. Paraguay held Germany to just one goal, but Germany had 1.57 expected goals and six shots on target. If France gets that many opportunities, it will have no trouble surpassing this total.
Kickoff time: 5 p.m. ET
Paraguay vs. France odds: Paraguay (+1700) - Draw (+550) - France (-550)
How to watch: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
💵 SBR Edge: France's offense is unstoppable
France has scored at least three goals in six consecutive competitive matches and multiple goals in 13 consecutive. That's why, even with Paraguay's defense playing well, this is a three-unit play.
🔥 More World Cup predictions for Saturday
Kylian Mbappe 2 or more goals (+280) vs. Paraguay
If I like France to score, then that means I have to expect another big game from Mbappe. Mbappe has scored two goals in three of his four matches, as he hunts for his second Golden Boot.
Since Paraguay really struggled with the speed of the United States' Folarin Balogun, I expect them to suffer even more against Mbappe. Mbappe has at least four shots in all four World Cup matches, with multiple shots on target in each contest.
While Mbappe to score once feels like a guarantee, all of the major sportsbooks have the price set at -200 or worse, which is simply too expensive to provide any real value.
Canada Under 0.5 goals (+132) vs. Morocco
If you checked out my Canada vs. Morocco prediction, then you already know that I hate this matchup for Canada's offense. While Morocco has only one clean sheet at this World Cup and allowed two goals to Haiti, the defensive performance against the Netherlands was incredible.
The Netherlands entered its match with Morocco with 10 goals in three games. Morocco held the Dutch to 1 goal, two shots on target, and just 0.24 expected goals.
While Canada has scored in every match, aside from the game against Qatar, finding the net has been a struggle for the Canadians. South Africa and Bosnia-Herzegovina displayed the blueprint for defending Canada, and Morocco's defense is talented enough to do even better than those two teams.
Kickoff time: 1 p.m. ET
Canada vs. Morocco odds: Canada (+350) - Draw (+245) - Morocco (-120)
How to watch: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
🤑 More World Cup picks for Saturday
It could be a tough day for Canada, and I'm breaking that down too in the Canada vs. Morocco win probability. Meanwhile, Les Bleus are set to thrive in our Paraguay vs. France prediction.
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