⚾ Astros vs. Cubs Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 22

The Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs each look to rebound from poor stretches of play when they kick off Friday’s 15-game MLB slate with an early 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch from Wrigley Field (Apple TV). Spencer Arrighetti opposes Jameson Taillon on the bump, and the Cubs are -145 betting favorites.

My Astros vs. Cubs prediction backs the red-hot Arrighetti to lead the road underdogs to a victory, while expecting him to cash the Over on his projected strikeout total. I also back a Houston slugger to go deep while taking advantage of Taillon’s home run struggles as part of my MLB picks.

⚾ Astros vs. Cubs picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.7 units

🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Cubs?

It seems like forever ago that the Cubs had a 15-game home winning streak (their second-longest ever in franchise history), and I expect their struggles against hard-throwing pitchers to continue in a loss to the Astros.

Score prediction: Astros 6, Cubs 4

💰 Astros vs. Cubs prediction & best bet

Astros ML (+125)

In Chicago’s three home losses to Milwaukee, it was outscored 19-to-5 and went just 2-for-18 with runners in scoring position. Meanwhile, the Astros are 13-20 since April 15, but are 5-1 in Spencer Arrighetti’s six starts despite facing two projected division winners (Yankees and Guardians) and one other team with 74.4% playoff odds (Rangers), per PECOTA.

Dating back to May 9 over which the Cubs lost nine of 11 games, Chicago ranks 29th in BABIP (but is fourth overall in that metric for the season), and is 28th in wRC+, 29th in ISO, and 29th in home runs.

🔥 Best Astros vs. Cubs player prop bet

Spencer Arrighetti Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150)

Cubs batters had a difficult time with the combination of Brandon Sproat along with the hard-throwing Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison this week. Those starters combined for 24 strikeouts, and Cubs hitters struck out 36 times total in the series.

In Chicago’s poor 2-9 stretch from May 9 to yesterday, it is tied for the worst strikeout rate in the league (26.7%). Meanwhile, Arrighetti appears fully stretched out as he has ramped on his pitch count for three straight starts, culminating with a season-high 102-pitch effort in his last outing.

In Arrighetti’s fourth-career double-digit strikeout game earlier this season, he threw curveballs at a ridiculously high 51% rate against left-handed batters, while generating a 42.1% swinging strike rate. He ranks in the 68% percentile for whiff rate overall, and is on pace for the best barrel rate of his career, which should lead to another efficient outing.

💣 Astros vs. Cubs home run prediction

Christian Walker to hit a home run (+710)

Jameson Taillon is the only qualified pitcher this season with a HR/9 rate greater than 2.0. In fact, the difference between the righty’s 2.84 HR/9 rate and the next-closest pitcher’s 1.98 rate entering yesterday was bigger than the gap between the second and 26th-worst pitcher.

Taillon allowed a career-high five home runs in his last road start against the White Sox, but he has still allowed six of his 16 home runs at Wrigley Field.

Though left-handed batters are slugging 152 points better against Taillon, I’m still looking at the right-handed Christian Walker as a value play. Walker is amid a four-game home run drought, he has only had one such streak longer since April 20.

🚀 Astros vs. Cubs same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay help Houston's case of winning outright as road underdogs. Normally I'd look into swapping my home run wager with a different third SGP leg, but I'm keeping it to add value even though I am swapping Christian Walker for Yordan Alvarez. That swap is in large part due to the fact that left-handed batters are slugging .594 against Taillon, while righties own a .442 slugging percentage against him. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Cubs: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I would not put anyone off loading up their betting portfolio for this game by backing multiple Astros sluggers to homer, given that Taillon has allowed two or more home runs in three of his last four starts (and five starts total this season). I'm limiting those plays to Alvarez as part of my same-game parlay and Walker, who may be batting just .191 this month, but has still homered in four of the last six series.

📊 Live Astros vs. Cubs odds

Chicago's moneyline odds have remained relatively the same despite Houston being a popular underdog that has attracted 49% of the early wagers. Thus far, it seems oddsmakers are comfortable having to root for the Cubs. FanDuel is the only top sports betting site with an O/U of 7.5, while all others are at 7. DraftKings came down from an opening number of 7.5, while the biggest movement was at BetMGM, who opened much higher than the rest of the market at 8.5. With FanDuel's Under of 7.5 juiced to -128 (56.14% implied odds), it may only be a matter of time until it aligns with the rest of the market and ticks down to an O/U of 7.

📈 Astros vs. Cubs betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Cubs injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Cubs

• Date: Friday, May 22
• First pitch: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Wrigley Field (Chicago)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Astros starter: Spencer Arrighetti (5-1, 1.50 ERA)
• Cubs starter: Jameson Taillon (2-3, 4.97 ERA)