⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, May 22
You should always be watching James Wood destroy everything in his path, and now you get a reason to monitor that even more closely today while invested in his baseball wrecking.
Wood leads my home run predictions today and MLB home run picks while also being the league's front-runner in nearly every power metric that matters. I'm also looking to pick on Grayson Rodriguez as he continues to find his post-injury footing, and I've unearthed a highly appealing long-shot play.
βΎ Best home run predictions tonight: MLB picks & odds May 22
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| James Wood home run (+350 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Can feast on the fastball-slider mix Bryce Elder uses against lefties. |
| Brandon Nimmo home run (+490 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.98u | Grayson Rodriguez is making just his second start post-injury. |
| Taylor Ward home run (+710 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 1.42u | Revamped approach makes him the ideal long-shot candidate. |
Total wagered: 0.20 units | Max profit: 3.10 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
James Wood to hit a home run (+370)
Wood is pulverizing everything, with his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate all sitting in the 100th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
His terrorizing of the league is heightening even more any time Wood is thrown a fastball or a slider, as he's slugging a bonkers .700 and .840 against those pitches, respectively. That's also the exact mix the Braves' Bryce Elder primarily relies on while attempting to get lefties out, throwing his slider 30% of the time and a four-seamer 24%.
📡 SBR Edge: Unmatched speed
Wood is achieving his success largely through incredible bat speed, which also ranks in the 96th percentile.
π₯ More home run picks today
Brandon Nimmo to hit a home run (+520)
In Nimmo we see a classic case of perfectly fine production that can and should get better due to the underlying metrics.
The lefty is sitting on a .774 OPS, but his hard-hit rate of 50% rests in the 89th percentile. For perspective, that puts him only a tick below Juan Soto, on the same level as Riley Greene, and yes, somehow ahead of Shohei Ohtani. His strikeout rate is down from last year, too.
He'll take that promising profile against Rodriguez, the hurler who's making just his second post-injury major-league start since July 2024. There's significant form to rediscover for him, and we saw that while he struggled immensely with command during his first outing, resulting in seven earned runs and four walks.
🤑 Six simple outs
Want ways to cash in on a scoreless first frame? Head over to Dustin Saracini's Best NRFI bets today.
Taylor Ward to hit a home run (+710)
Ward seems to be undergoing a change during his first season with the Baltimore Orioles. His chase rate has been plummeting, going from 20.6% last year to 10.9% now, with his walk rate skyrocketing along with it. The latter now sits at 21% and in the 100th percentile leaguewide.
He hasn't translated that patience to consistent power just yet, but that'll come if he's choosing his pitches wisely and continues to throttle four-seamers to the tune of a .511 slugging percentage. And today he opposes the Tigers' Jack Flaherty, who's been a mess and throws his substandard fastball 49% of the time. A pitch that sits nearly 3 mph below the league average for righties comes with a 54% hard-hit rate.
π Best home run parlay picks today
Lefty brute force is a unifying theme of today's parlay, with Wood and Nimmo bringing the thump from that side. Meanwhile, the long-shot play on Ward pumps up this three-legger nicely.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- James Wood home run (+350)
- Brandon Nimmo home run (+490)
- Taylor Ward home run (+710)
Best odds: +21883 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 4.38u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-97-1 | -9.25 units β | -18.3% β |
| Home run picks | 12-63-0 | -4.45 units β | -27.4% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-18 | -0.96 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Sprinkles are the wise play in such a volatile market. So if you're doing that anyway, this is the market to target a well-placed long shot now and then, capitalizing on an ideal matchup for the possibility of a significant reward.
I'm doing that with Ward today. He hasn't tallied many dingers yet this season while sitting on two thus far. But he's shown plenty of power in the past, including consecutive 25-plus homer seasons and 36 last year. And his newfound patience and plate discipline, combined with an ability to pounce on the right offering, make him the ideal dark horse to tab tonight.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB props today
Here are the most-bet MLB props today, via BetMGM.
- MJ Melendez home run (+475)
- Juan Soto home run (+275)
- Jac Caglianone home run (+500)
- Yordan Alvarez home run (+375)
- Kyle Schwarber home run (+240)
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