⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, April 24
Several starting pitchers with inflated ERAs that have trouble keeping the ball in the yard toe the rubber amid MLB’s 14-game Friday slate, and I’m opposing many of them with my home run predictions today.
Brayan Bello and Luis Severino are two starting pitchers I’m targeting, as they have had struggles against certain sluggers in divisional matchups. I’m also backing a second-year power hitter to my MLB home run picks who just had a four-game home run streak snapped, and am expecting Tesocar Hernandez of the Dodgers to spark an offense at home that was quieted for the most part in a road series in San Francisco.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 24
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+306 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 0.77u | Montgomery has some of the best power numbers in the majors dating back to last All-Star Break |
| Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+474 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Henderson has great power numbers head-to-head against Brayan Bello |
| Jake Burger to hit a home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.25u | Luis Severino's home run issues at home should carry over to this road start at Globe Life Field |
| Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+440 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 1.1u | Hernandez is one of several Dodgers with career success against Jameson Taillon |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.31 units
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💣 Best home run prediction today
Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+306)
Colson Montgomery just had a four-game home run streak snapped. But he has been consistent for most of the month with seven home runs in 25 games, which is on pace for 45 for the season (he had 21 home runs in 73 games during his rookie season).
Montgomery has the third-most home runs since last year’s All Star Break, and should continue to stay hot against Miles Mikolas, who has allowed six homers in his five starts. Mikolas ranks in the 26th percentile in barrels and hard-hit rate allowed, which doesn’t play well at hitter friendly Rate Field.
📡 SBR Edge: White Sox' version of the "Bash Brothers"
At the same time Montgomery was amid his power surge, White Sox teammate Munetaka Murakami was also pulverizing the baseball with home runs in five straight games, tied for the longest streak in franchise history. Murakami is one of MLB's biggest "all or nothing" hitters, as 10 of his 20 hits are home runs.
🔥 More home run picks today
Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+474)
Four of Gunnar Henderson’s five hits in 19 at-bats against Brayan Bello have gone for extra bases, including one home run.
Bello has widely been known as a ground ball pitcher, as he’s on pace for his fourth season of a 50% or better ground ball rate over the last five years. But his mistakes are getting punished this year, as his 1.4 HR/9 rate is on pace to match his career worst.
Opposing batters are elevating Bello more than ever, with a career-high 24% fly ball rate last year being followed by a 20.9% rate this year. And Henderson’s 29% pull air percentage is nearly double his previous career high (15.8%).
Jake Burger to hit a home run (+500)
Luis Severino’s 1.5 HR/9 rate is on pace to be the second-worst of his career, and I’m finding value in him serving up his first home run on the road this season after all four of his long balls allowed have come in the bandbox of Sutter Health Park.
Jake Burger has a .313/.421/.813 slash line with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Severino. Four of his five total hits in that split have gone for extra bases, and Severino’s 5.40 road ERA bodes well for a Texas offense that ranks 24th or worse in ISO and slugging in home games to finally wake up.
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+440)
Teoscar Hernandez has four home runs, all within the last 15 games after starting the season with none through seven games. While he hasn’t homered in the last six, I don’t expect him to match his season-long drought, as a matchup with Jameson Taillon at home should cure his power struggles.
Hernandez has two home runs and a .982 OPS in 18 career at-bats off Taillon. He is also in his better hitting split with a slugging percentage 192 points higher against right-handed pitching, and 111 points higher at Dodger Stadium compared to road games.
Taillon’s .469 xSLG is also on pace to be the worst of his career, and he ranks in the bottom fifth of the league in ground ball and barrel rate.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
Three of the four legs of this home run parlay include players with stellar OPSs and long balls off the opposing starting pitcher, and two come from divisional rivalries. But in the case of Montgomery being my best home run prediction today, I am riding the hot hand against a pitcher with the highest ERA (9.15) of any starter toeing the rubber.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Colson Montgomery to hit a home run (+306)
- Gunnar Henderson to hit a home run (+474)
- Jake Burger to hit a home run (+436)
- Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+431)
Best odds: +66228 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 662.8u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 46-49 | +20.29 units ✅ | +28% ✅ |
| Player props | 34-38 | +19.93 units ✅ | +39.9% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
As usual I'm risking a conservative 0.25 units of my bankroll on each of my home run picks. Given how volatile the home run market is, I love the position I'm in with only needed to hit on one of these four plays in order to turn a profit for today. I also would not put anyone off backing a home run prop in the Angels vs. Royals game, which has an unusually high total (O/U 9) despite Kansas City's offensive struggles. Is this the game where Bobby Witt Jr. hits his first home run of the season?
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