⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Tonight: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, May 1
Even elite power hitters go through stretches where the long ball dries up - a reminder of just how difficult hitting home runs really is.
But the talent tends to win out eventually, and that's the premise behind my home run predictions tonight. I'm targeting two sluggers in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Jose Ramirez whose advanced metrics remain strong, even if the results haven't fully caught up with the process yet.
And as always, it's never a bad time to back Juan Soto in my MLB home run picks.
βΎ Best home run predictions tonight: MLB picks & odds May 1
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuna Jr. home run (+370 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.74u | Benefits from two homer launchpads: Coors Field and Jose Quintana. |
| Juan Soto home run (+346 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Gets Walbert Urena in his third-career start, and he's put up a 7.9 BB/9. |
| Jose Ramirez home run (+350 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.70u | Has excelled against sinkers historically. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.14 units
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π£ Best home run prediction tonight
The Braves have the fourth-shortest odds to win the World Series.
Ronald Acuna Jr. to hit a home run (+370)
It's a home run betting sin if we don't get on board with a known ball-masher playing in the thin mountain air of Coors Field. And one who's finally coming to life after a slow start, and is in an ideal matchup.
Acuna's underlying metrics remain impressive, and most notably a barrel rate in the 82nd percentile. Now a superstar who has recorded three extra-base hits across as many games recently will face Jose Quintana, the 37-year-old whose K/9 astonishingly sits at just 4.4, and he relies heavily on a tortoise-like fastball with only a 90-mph average velocity.
📡 SBR Edge: Handling mediocre heat
Acuna will surely begin to revert back to the slugger we know well soon, and as recently as last year he produced a .558 slugging percentage against four-seamers.
π₯ More home run picks tonight
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
Juan Soto to hit a home run (+346)
Soto remains the only watchable part of a putrid and 29th-ranked Mets offense with his 1.010 OPS that would be fourth leaguewide had he not spent time on the injured list.
He's clubbed two homers over his last three games, and his Baseball Savant page is unsurprisingly dripping with red, with an expected slugging, expected batting average, and barrel rate that all sit in the 97th percentile or higher.
Now the legendary lefty power source gets to face Walbert Urena, who's making just his third career start. He'll be trying to get out a hitter in Soto whose OPS against righties is at 1.280 this season, and doing so with highly inconsistent command that's led to a 7.9 BB/9.
Jose Ramirez to hit a home run (+350)
Much like Acuna, Jose Ramirez is a megastar who's scuffling to begin the season, but everything under the hood still looks promising. Most significantly, an expected slugging percentage in the 88th percentile, and strikeout and walk rates that are even higher.
That strongly hints at positive regression coming soon, and it can start tonight against Oakland Athletics starter J.T. Ginn. He's off to an impressive start, but Ginn leans heavily on his sinker while throwing it 37.1% of the time. It's an offering Ramirez demolished last year while slugging .616.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into Dustin Saracini's Best NRFI bets today if you're looking to cash in on six simple outs.
ποΈ Most-bet MLB home run hitters tonight
Betting insights via BetMGM.
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Dodgers | +360 |
| Matt Olson | Braves | +333 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | Phillies | +300 |
| Miguel Vargas | White Sox | +600 |
π Best home run parlay picks tonight
I'm hopping on the positive regression train with tonight's parlay, as that's the link between Acuna and Ramirez. Meanwhile, Soto is a fine home run play any day, but especially against an inexperienced righty.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay tonight
- Ronald Acuna home run (+370)
- Juan Soto home run (+320)
- Jose Ramirez home run (+350)
Best odds: +8783 via FanDuel (0.10u -> 8.8u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-57-0 | -4.13 units β | -12.1% β |
| Home run picks | 9-33-0 | -0.03 units β | -0.16% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-8 | -0.60 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks tonight
I don't often stray from my standard 0.20-unit size in this market. But if you want to get ever so slightly more aggressive tonight, do it through Soto.
The star is even more appealing because once Urena exits, Soto will get a handful of at-bats against a woeful Los Angeles Angels bullpen that sits second last with a 5.66 ERA.
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