⚾ Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Tuesday, April 21
📡 SBR Edge: Best NRFI Bets Today for Tuesday (April 21)
We finished Monday 1-1 after the Blue Jays couldn't close the door with two outs - let's get back to sweeping the board on the fine Tuesday. We're targeting the Yankees vs. Red Sox and Athletics vs. Mariners to get us six simple outs. Let's throw up a few zeroes tonight, shall we? It's time to get hot.
ā¾ Best NRFI bets today: April 21
See all of our expertsā MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ā¾ NRFI pick | šµ Units | š Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees vs. Red Sox NRFI (-120) | 1u ā .83u | Red Sox own .192 xBA vs. Gil |
| Athletics vs. Mariners NRFI (-115) | 1u -> .86u | A's own .257 xwOBA vs. Castillo |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.69 units
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š° Best NRFI bets today for Tuesday
Yankees vs. Red Sox NRFI (-120) - 6:45 p.m. ET
- Luis Gil (7.00 ERA) vs. Connelly Early (2.29 ERA)
- NRFI records: Yankees (9-13) vs. Red Sox (11-11)
Early has been an absolute stud this year for the Red Sox, so we're going to ride with him as part of our best NRFI bets today. It helps that he's largely given up weak contact to the Yankees, allowing just a .198 xBA across 17 plate appearances. On the other side, we have a bigger sample size with Gil - the Red Sox own just a .278 xwOBA with 62 plate appearances against the 2024 Rookie of the Year. I'm expecting a sweat-free first inning.
🤑 More MLB props
Dive into Sean Tomlinson's home run predictions for Tuesday if you're looking to cash in on some long balls today.
Athletics vs. Mariners NRFI (-115) - 9:40 p.m. ET
- Jacob Lopez (6.38 ERA) vs. Castillo (5.40 ERA)
- NRFI records: Athletics (11-12) vs. Athletics (8-16)
We're taking a shot on two pitchers who have, to put it nicely, been atrocious this year. While Castillo's ERA is largely inflated due to a handful of blowup innings, he's been particularly clean in the first inning, allowing just one earned run all year in the opening frame. It helps the Athletics own just a .209 xBA across 73 plate appearances against Castillo, and their top-three projected hitters are 6-for-32 lifetime against him.
šµ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-17 | -5.22 units |
| NRFI picks | 12-15 | -3.22 units |
š” How I'm betting NRFI picks today (April 21)
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
No matter the day, I look at how a pitcher matches up specifically to the lineup he's taking on. What's their expected batting average against him? What's their strikeout rate? What's each team's NRFI record? More specifically, how do the top three batters fare against a specific pitcher? These are all thoughts that need to run through your mind before placing a high-variance bet like a NRFI, and slide your units accordingly.
ā NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.,
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