⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Tuesday, April 21
Sometimes baseball isn't kind, even when a batter is doing everything possible to rake repeatedly and/or launch balls into seats.
That's been the case so far for Fernando Tatis Jr., who leads my home run predictions today and MLB home run picks. He's been doing damage with not nearly enough to show for it, and that can change in a hurry tonight amid the thin mountain air of Colorado.
Ketel Marte has experienced a similar fate, while Mike Trout has dialed back the clock and now gets to face a pitcher poised to morph into a pumpkin again.
βΎ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds April 21
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. home run (+410 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.82u | No homers yet, but his underlying metrics are glowing. |
| Ketel Marte home run (+420 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.84u | Warming up after a slow start. |
| Mike Trout home run (+360 via FanDuel) | 0.20u β 0.72u | Is in vintage form with seven homers already. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.38 units
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π£ Best home run prediction today
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+360)
The real Tatis will surface soon.
He has yet to register his first homer of the season, and Tatis' OPS sits far below his typical level at .644. But he's consistently making quality contact, most notably with a league-leading hard-hit percentage of 67.7. He isn't driving the ball into the ground either, as his line-drive percentage is up significantly from career norms. It sits at 32.3%, far higher than his career mark of 22.5%.
He simply can't keep crushing the ball that much without doing more damage, and playing at Coors Field tonight can ignite much-needed positive regression.
📡 SBR Edge: The sweetest launch angle
What's even more perplexing about Tatis' start is that he's driving the ball at a quality angle too, with a launch-angle sweet spot percentage that sits in the 92nd percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
π₯ More home run picks today
Ketel Marte to hit a home run (+397)
To a lesser degree, Marte has been enduring a season like Tatis' campaign thus far.
The difference is Marte has clubbed four homers, though it could be more. His expected slugging percentage of .513 is significantly higher than the infielder's actual one of .386, and his max exit velocity of 116.9 that sits third leaguewide shows the immense power in his bat.
He's starting to wake up too, and Marte isn't far removed from a two-homer outing last week. The three-time All-Star has posted an expected slugging of .654 against fastballs, and now Marte gets to face Sean Burke of the White Sox, who throws his four-seamer nearly 40% of the time.
Mike Trout to hit a home run (+360)
Trout sits tied for eighth MLB-wide with seven homers, and that power is a product of his repeated baseball destruction. Most significantly, an expected slugging (.703) and barrel percentage (25.4) that both rest in the 99th percentile, showing Trout's nearly unmatched power.
The three-time MVP winner will take that into a matchup against the Blue Jays' Patrick Corbin.
The 36-year-old has been serviceable over a handful of spot starts for the injury-riddled Jays, but he's teetering on the brink of massive regression. Corbin's expected slugging allowed is at .642, and his actual number is an already alarming .514. His expected ERA of 7.91 is also much higher than Corbin's actual ERA of 4.66.
π Best home run parlay picks today
I'm leaning on two sluggers in Tatis and Marte who come with plenty of signs they're about to break loose from early-season funks. Tatis being in the thin air of Coors Field is a nice little bonus, as is Trout getting to tee off on the homer-prone Corbin.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Fernando Tatis Jr. home run (+410)
- Ketel Marte home run (+420)
- Mike Trout home run (+360)
Best odds: +12099 via FanDuel (0.02u -> 2.4u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-36-0 | -4.71 units β | -19.6% β |
| Home run picks | 3-21-0 | 0.25 units β | 5.9% β |
| HR Parlays | 0-4 | -0.38 units β | -100% β |
π‘ How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
A 0.20-unit sprinkle has become my standard for home run plays. However, if you're going to get slightly more aggressive in this market today, do it through Trout.
In addition to the aforementioned reasons for Corbin's expected plummet, Trout has also posted a 1.117 OPS this season against lefties.
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