⚾ Blue Jays vs. Angels Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, April 21

The Blue Jays will try to keep picking themselves up off the mat tonight, but they'll be hoping the wheels don't fall off a replacement starter who lacks velocity

It'll be Patrick Corbin vs. Jack Kochanowicz from Angel Stadium at 9:38 p.m. ET (ESPN), with Los Angeles entering as the narrow -115 favorite for my Blue Jays vs. Angels prediction. Corbin has been impressively fine as a scrap heap free-agent signing for someone with his background of giving up home run rockets.

But my MLB picks believe that ends quickly tonight, with Mike Trout providing some of the damage.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Angels picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Angels?

The Angels will prevail while snapping a mini three-game losing streak because Corbin is due for a slam into the regression wall. A slowly awakening Blue Jays offense can hit Kochanowicz around too, as he allows plenty of balls in play and misses few bats. But it won't be enough in the end.

Score prediction: Angels 7, Blue Jays 4

💰 Blue Jays vs. Angels prediction & best bet

Over 9.5 (+100)

Corbin has given Toronto all it can reasonably expect from a 36-year-old spot starter with tortoise-like fastball velocity. But that begins to end tonight.

His expected ERA of 7.91 is gargantuan. He's in the bottom 3% leaguewide, per Baseball Savant, and that ERA is far higher than his actual figure of 4.66. That indicates there's been an element of dancing through raindrops.

Corbin careening back down to earth is the main reason to back this Over, but the contact-oriented Blue Jays can still do their part while chipping away against Kochanowicz, whose K/9 is at a lowly 6.9.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Angels player prop bet

Mike Trout Over 1.5 total bases (+113)

Trout has reverted to his pre-injury form while again performing like the generational talent he was to earn three MVP awards.

His path to that offensively is simple: Pulverization. He's registered the fifth-most barrels leaguewide, and the eighth-best barrels per plate appearance percentage. Toss in a 95th percentile or above walk rate and chase rate, and he possesses both the discipline and power to thrive.

Nothing there is surprising from Trout, as he just needed to be healthy. And now he gets to terrorize Corbin, whose cutter, his most-used pitch, has led to a .455 batting average against and 1.359 expected slugging percentage.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Angels home run prediction

Zach Neto to hit a home run (+338)

I went with Trout to go deep in my best home run predictions today, but you can't go wrong with a righty masher against Corbin.

That describes Neto too, who has clubbed five homers already this season after a career-high 26 dingers last year. His OPS has risen substantially compared to last campaign too, moving from .793 to .837 now. He's reached that point primarily through destroying heat, as Neto has posted a .643 expected slugging percentage against fastballs.

Corbin doesn't lean on his fastball much, but he just lacks velocity in general, and Neto can pounce while exploiting a glaring weakness against righties. The veteran hurler is allowing an OPS of .999 to right-handed hitters.

🚀 Blue Jays vs. Angels same-game parlay

The clock striking midnight for Corbin is the main theme here as we lean on Trout to do a chunk of the work to cash the game total Over. I'm not being nearly as aggressive with Neto, but tossing in him to record a hit provides a nice little boost to the parlay that gets us to +337.

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💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Angels: MLB strategy

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I'm confident enough in Corbin's brief run of being serviceable ending to put a full unit on both the game total Over and Trout sailing past 1.5 total bases.

The involvement of the Blue Jays' offense can understandably lead to some anxiety tied to a game total Over. An injury-decimated team isn't far removed from a five-game losing streak while averaging just 1.8 runs per outing.

But the Jays have scored 15 runs across their last two games, and the Angels are tied for the fifth-most runs produced MLB-wide.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Angels odds

There's indecisiveness when it comes to moneyline betting, with the Blue Jays getting the slight edge while receiving 54% of the bets through DraftKings. We see a similar tight window tied to the total, with the Over also generating 54% of the wagers.

The most notable movement thus far has come from the total, which mostly opened at 9 through the best MLB betting sites. As much as Corbin's implosion seems imminent, I'd approach the Over with more caution if it climbs higher than 9.5.

📈 Blue Jays vs. Angels betting trends

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Angels injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Angels

• Date: Tuesday, April 21
• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Angel Stadium (Anaheim)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Patrick Corbin (0-0, 4.86 ERA)
• Angels starter: Jack Kochanowicz (2-0, 3.47 ERA)