⚾ Blue Jays vs. Tigers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, May 16

Two injury-riddled teams meet in the middle game of a three-game series at Comerica Park as the Detroit Tigers host the Toronto Blue Jays in the first game on the Saturday slate at 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited). Detroit is becoming somewhat healthier with Casey Mize coming off the IL to make his first start in three weeks, while Toronto counters with Mason Fluharty to open a bullpen game. The Tigers are -125 betting favorites.

My Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction backs Detroit’s first five innings moneyline odds, as I don’t trust its bullpen late in the game.

⚾ Blue Jays vs. Tigers picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Blue Jays vs. Tigers?

The Blue Jays sandwich a bullpen game in between starts from two of its best pitchers on Friday and Sunday (Trey Yesavage and Kevin Gausman), so it almost seems like Toronto isn't trying to even the series after yesterday's loss. Meanwhile, Detroit also has an opportunity to build rare momentum after snapping an eight-game losing streak in series openers yesterday.

Score prediction: Tigers 5, Blue Jays 3

💰 Blue Jays vs. Tigers prediction & best bet

Tigers first five innings ML (-110)

Despite being on the IL for all of May to this point, Mize is still second among all Tigers pitchers in WAR (trailing only Tarik Skubal). 

Before the injury, Mize was on pace to set career-bests in strikeouts per nine innings (10.2), hits per nine (0.9), home runs per nine (0.6), FIP (2.85), and WHIP (1.194). 

Mize now faces an injury-plagued lineup without Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, and Nathan Lukes, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is slashing .116/.235/.116 with zero extra-base hits this month.

🔥 Best Blue Jays vs. Tigers player prop bet

Riley Greene Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+100)

Riley Greene started an eight-game hitting streak on April 19, and he's registered an eye-popping 12 multi-hit games from that date until now. Also in that span entering the start of this series, he posted a ridiculous .585 BABIP, when no other qualified hitter had logged higher than a .448 BABIP. In fact, his 137-point difference between him and the next-best hitter was the same as the gap from second to 63rd on that list.

It's difficult to analyze Greene’s matchups today since it's unclear which Blue Jays arms he'll face. But I’m still expecting him to stuff the stat sheet on the strength of his league-leading wRC+, wOBA, and 11th-highest slugging percentage of all qualified hitters over the last month.

💣 Blue Jays vs. Tigers home run prediction

Dillon Dingler to hit a home run (+650)

Well into late April, Dillon Dingler was the only player with at least a .300 xBA and a .550 xSLG since the All-Star Break of last season. He's tied for the third-most home runs hit while playing catcher this season and ranks second in ISO among those who have caught a minimum of 30 games.

Dingler is on pace to finish with a hard-hit rate over 50% for the first time in his career. He also fits a solid home run profile in that he's decreased his ground ball rate and increased his fly ball rate each of the last three seasons. Dingler also ranks in the 95th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, and launch angle sweet spot percentage.

Want more dinger picks? Head over to my home run predictions today.

🚀 Blue Jays vs. Tigers same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work together as I eye Detroit securing the lead early. Greene has gone over this projected total in seven of the last eight games, so I'm leaving Dingler's home run wager as the third leg of this parlay for more value since I have confidence in the first two legs cashing.

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All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Blue Jays vs. Tigers: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Detroit posted a 5.08 ERA while losing eight of nine games entering Friday's series opener, with a lot of that pinned on its bullpen struggling. That's a big reason why I'm limiting my Tigers moneyline play to the first five innings, as I want to take relievers out of the equation with Mize working back from injury. 

And given how hot Greene has been at the dish, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Over on his alternate 2.5 hits/runs/RBIs odds of +200 at FanDuel.

📊 Live Blue Jays vs. Tigers odds

Despite Detroit winning yesterday and Toronto announcing a bullpen game today, any line movement so far has gone in the Blue Jays' favor (-126 to -122 at DraftKings, -130 to -125 at BetMGM). 

Comparatively, the total has undergone more movement across the market at the best MLB betting sites. BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365 experienced one-way movement up from an opening number of 8.0 to 8.5, while FanDuel has bounced back and forth a couple of times between 8.0 and 8.5 since late Friday night. 

📈 Blue Jays vs. Tigers betting trends

🚑 Blue Jays vs. Tigers injuries

📺 How to watch Blue Jays vs. Tigers

• Date: Saturday, May 16
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Comerica Park (Detroit, Mich.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Blue Jays starter: Mason Fluharty (2-0, 5.40 ERA)
• Tigers starter: Casey Mize (2-2, 2.90 ERA)