⚾ Padres vs. Mariners Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (May 16)

San Diego has already secured the highly coveted Vedder Cup this season, and now tonight will be about who's the better man between Logan Gilbert and Walker Buehler.

The Padres vs. Mariners win probability from the prediction market apps shows a clear lean on that question, with the Mariners as 60% favorites while getting set to tee off on the struggling Buehler.    

But they're now beginning life without slugger Cal Raleigh for at least a few weeks. Can the rest of Seattle's batting order rise up to punish Buehler? And can Gilbert fix his issues and minimize hard contact?

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🏆 Who will win Padres vs. Mariners? Live MLB win probability

The Mariners are the unsurprising sizable favorites while getting a 60% win probability amid just over $55,000 in trading volume, and the mere presence of Buehler on the mound for San Diego is largely the reason why.

We're so very far removed from Buehler's early-career dominance with the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's a much different pitcher now several injuries and underperforming seasons later, and two of his top three most-used pitches are getting regularly blasted. That includes a four-seamer opponents are posting a .400 batting average against, and a knuckle curve with a .594 expected slugging percentage, all according to Baseball Savant.

The Mariners counter with Gilbert, whose nearly unmatched extension contributes to his success. His walk rate also sits in the 93rd percentile. However, Gilbert's hard-hit rate has risen alarmingly from 41.7% last year to 48.9% now.

My prediction: Mariners win. Gilbert has his weaknesses this year, but the Padres aren't well-positioned to capitalize while producing MLB's third-worst OPS at .657.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Padres vs. Mariners?

For all his flaws elsewhere, Buehler has been keeping the ball in the yard, with a modest three home runs given up thus far across 33 1/3 innings this season. But although some of his underlying metrics indicate an ability to suppress the long ball, it's unlikely he's shed the homer-prone version of himself. His HR/9 sat at 1.6 and 1.9 the past two seasons, and it's at 0.7 now.

But for tonight let's look toward a Padres hitter to do damage, even if it's in a losing cause. Julio Rodriguez leads this market while getting a 15% win probability to go deep, but San Diego's Manny Machado (14%) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (13%) aren't far behind.

Gilbert's 91.5 mph average exit velocity allowed sits in the bottom 8% leaguewide, and his strikeout percentage has fallen from 32.3% last year to 25.5% now. Meanwhile, Machado is posting a 56.3% hard-hit rate against four-seamers. He's been struggling, but not quite to the extent of his teammate Tatis, who keeps pounding balls into the ground and somehow still hasn't hit a home run here on May 15. His probability for tonight is far too high.

My prediction: Manny Machado to hit a home run. Opposing batters are also slugging .698 against Gilbert's four-seamer. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Mike Spector.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Padres vs. Mariners?

This series features one of the league's most sputtering offenses, with the Padres boasting a 28-16 record despite a lineup that sits 26th in slugging percentage (.363). The Mariners are better, though still middling while ranking 17th in runs scored and 15th in OPS.

But that offense has done enough to give the Mariners one of the league's better YRFI records, as the team sits fifth leaguewide at 27-19. Seattle is even better at home while posting a 17-7 record.

That doesn't align with T-Mobile Park suppressing runs more than any other MLB venue this season, according to BallPark Factors. But in mid-May, there's starting to be enough of a sample size to believe the Mariners consistently find a way to rise above the restrictions of their home field.

Toss in that tendency alongside Buehler getting rocked to the tune of a 5.20 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs across his last 18 2/3 innings, and there's a clear path to an early run tonight. That's still true even if the probability has perplexingly fallen from a high of 46% early this morning to 41% now.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. Gilbert's ground ball rate has also fallen since his 2024 All-Star season, going from 44.1% then to 38.8% now.

📊 Padres vs. Mariners win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Padres vs. Mariners

• Date: Saturday, May 16
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: T-Mobile Park (Seattle)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Padres starter: Walker Buehler (2-2, 5.20 ERA)
• Mariners starter: Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.78 ERA)