Dodgers vs. Twins Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (June 23)
LHP Justin Wrobleski and LHP Kendry Rojas square off tonight in the second game of a three-game set as I break down the Dodgers vs. Twins win probability.
Minnesota will be looking for revenge after dropping Monday's series opener 2-1, but it only has a 39% win probability to upset Los Angeles (61%), according to prediction market apps. Even though the Twins are 6-2 in their last eight games, I like the Dodgers to win again tonight with Wrobleski on the mound.
First pitch from Target Field in Minneapolis is set for 7:40 p.m. ET (TBS, MLB.TV).
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🏆 Who will win Dodgers vs. Twins? Live MLB win probability
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Over $400,000 in volume has been cleared in this market, with traders projecting a 61% chance that the Dodgers win over the Twins (39%). If you'd like to buy Yes contracts on Los Angeles at 62¢ - the cheapest ask available - you can immediately get over $250,000 filled. The Dodgers opened with a 54% win expectancy on Sunday, and while their Yes contracts are more expensive now, I still believe there's value on L.A.
The Dodgers are 50-29 on the season and entered Monday coming off a 2-1 series loss to the Orioles in L.A. Two-way star Shohei Ohtani (1-for-4, 1 RBI) opened Monday's series opener with a leadoff home run, and first baseman Freddie Freeman added a tie-breaking solo shot in the sixth inning.
Twins outfielder Byron Buxton hit a solo homer in the first inning, Minnesota's lone run in the 2-1 Dodgers win. The Twins fell to 38-42 on the season with the loss but have still won six of their last eight games. The last time Minnesota lost consecutive games was during a three-game skid from June 6 to 9.
My prediction: Dodgers win (62¢). Rojas hasn't pitched since May 23 and is coming off an elbow injury. Before the injury, he hadn't pitched more than four innings in a game this season, so it's unlikely he even sees the fifth inning tonight. Wrobleski, on the other hand, has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, pitching six or more innings three times in that span.
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💣 Who will hit a home run in Dodgers vs. Twins?
| Hitter | Home run probability | Yes price |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 26% | 26¢ |
| Shohei Ohtani | 24% | 24¢ |
| Kyle Tucker | 14% | 15¢ |
| Freddie Freeman | 14% | 14¢ |
| Mookie Betts | 13% | 13¢ |
Buxton is projected to be the most likely player to homer tonight, with a 26% probability. Over $21,000 has been cleared in this market, but if you'd like to buy Yes contracts on Buxton at 26¢, you can only get filled for $205.75 on the spot before you'd have to start buying at 27¢ or higher.
The next most likely player to homer is Ohtani, who I would've expected to be the favorite, at 24¢. Ohtani's market is similar, with only $234.50 available at the advertised price. Once you get into more expensive contracts, like the Yes at 28¢, there's more than $3,000 available in liquidity.
My prediction: Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (24¢). After a slow start to the season, where Ohtani homered just once in his first seven games, he has gone yard in seven of his last 13. If liquidity is an issue at this price, I would recommend buying Yes contracts up to 26¢, but no higher than that. For more home run analysis, see the rest of our home run predictions today from our MLB expert Sean Tomlinson.
⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Dodgers vs. Twins?
Over $12,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with the Yes (i.e., the YRFI) opening at 47% on Monday. While Yes contracts are now 4¢ more expensive, I still believe there's value at this price. If you're interested in buying Yes contracts at 51¢, you can instantly get over $1,000 filled, with over $62,000 in liquidity available at 52¢.
The YRFI has occurred in 49% of the Dodgers' games, while the Twins have seen a first-inning run in 55% of theirs. Ohtani's homer in the first inning of Monday's series opener made money for traders who bought Yes contracts, and the Dodgers have scored a first-inning run in back-to-back games.
My prediction: Yes run in the first inning (51¢). There's uncertainty surrounding how Rojas will perform in his return from an elbow injury, and unfortunately for him, he'll have to face a lineup that will likely include Ohtani, Andy Pages, and Freeman. For more first-inning analysis, see the rest of our best NRFIs today from our MLB expert Dustin Saracini.
📊 Dodgers vs. Twins win expectancy
Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.
| Team | Win expectancy | Opened | Movement |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 61% | 54% | ↑ 7% |
| Twins | 39% | 46% | ↓ 7% |
📈 Dodgers vs. Twins trends
- The Dodgers 1-2 in their last three games.
- The Under is 2-1 in the Dodgers' last three games.
- The Twins are 6-2 in their last eight games.
- The Over is 4-2 in the Twins' last six games.
- The Dodgers 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
- The Under is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings.
📺 How to watch Dodgers vs. Twins
- Date: Tuesday, June 23
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Target Field (Minneapolis)
- TV: TBS
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Dodgers starter: Justin Wrobleski (8-2, 2.72 ERA)
- Twins starter: Kendry Rojas (1-0, 1.26 ERA)
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