⚾ Tigers vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, May 14

My Tigers vs. Mets prediction eschews the steep moneyline odds and instead expects a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in this afternoon tilt. That’s a big reason why I expect a Detroit slugger who has been on a three-week tear to be neutralized today, while I still find value in a right-handed Mets bat to go yard to round out my MLB picks.

⚾ Tigers vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.07 units

🏆 Who will win Tigers vs. Mets?

Did A.J. Ewing’s call-up spark something in the Mets? They turned in their third home game with 10-plus runs on Tuesday, and should again be victorious with their ace toeing the rubber today.

Score prediction: Mets 4, Tigers 1

💰 Tigers vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Under 7.5 (-115)

The Mets scored 10 runs in the series opener on Tuesday, but they are still an injury-riddled lineup missing the services of Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert, and Jorge Polanco, and now Francisco Alvarez is the latest casualty.

After going a collective 0-for-17 in a loss on Saturday, New York’s 1-through-5 hitters ranked last in batting average, home runs, extra-base hits, OPS, and were 29th in runs scored. I expect them, and the lineup as a whole, to struggle against righty Keider Montero, who has allowed a .195 OBA through two road starts thus far.

🔥 Best Tigers vs. Mets player prop bet

Riley Greene Under 0.5 hits (+132)

Riley Greene entered this series amid a 21-game on-base streak. In that time, he batted .378 with a 1.078 OPS, 10 extra-base hits, and eight RBI. He has since extended that streak to 24 with a single on Tuesday and three more hits yesterday.

If anyone can end Greene’s on-base streak (or at least hold him hitless), it’s Mets ace Nolan McLean. McLean has the second-lowest xERA among qualified pitchers (2.33) and ranks in the top six in FIP and K/9 rate. When batters are putting the ball in play against the righty outside of his elite 11.32 K/9 rate, they’re doing so at a collective .257 BABIP, which ranks McLean in the top 30 of all qualified pitchers.

McLean also ranks 25th in ground ball rate (46.2%), which limits Greene's ceiling for total bases in case anyone chooses to dabble in that market.

💣 Tigers vs. Mets home run prediction

Bo Bichette to hit a home run (+750)

In each of the four seasons Bo Bichette played at least 135 games, he finished with 18-plus home runs and averaged 22.8 home runs per season. He has struggled with two home runs and a career-low .560 OPS to begin his Mets career, but he’s a great value play to go yard as one of three projected starters that have hit against Montero before in their careers.

Montero allows a higher batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage (66 points higher) to right-handed hitters. His hard-hit rate is on pace to increase for the third straight season, and is currently in the 29th percentile. That, in combination with an eighth percentile ground ball rate gives a higher probability for Bichette to take him deep.

🚀 Tigers vs. Mets same-game parlay

Backing Nolan McLean (and Mets relievers) to hold Riley Greene hitless pairs nicely with the first leg of the Under for this same-game parlay. But since the Bichette home run play doesn't help the Under, I went with him to record at least one base hit, something he has done 17 times in the last 25 games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Tigers vs. Mets: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Nolan McLean has pitched to a 1.71 ERA in a small eight-start sample size at Citi Field, but the Mets are 0-4 in his home starts (and 2-6 overall) this season. That is why I do not have as much confidence on New York winning outright (or laying the -1.5 runs) as I do with the Under cashing, as four or fewer runs have been scored in three of McLean's last five starts.

📊 Live Tigers vs. Mets odds

The line has moved slightly in New York's favor (from -165 to -170 at BetMGM) overnight, likely as a reaction to yesterday's walk-off win in extra innings. But Detroit remains a popular underdog play with 40% of the early wagers, so we shouldn't see any steam movement backing the home favorites.

The total has not moved off of an opening number of 7.5 at any of the top sports betting sites, and the 60/40 betting split in favor of the Under doesn't suggest it will tick down before first pitch.

📈 Tigers vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Tigers vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Tigers vs. Mets

• Date: Thursday, May 14
• First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Tigers starter: Keider Montero (2-2, 3.18 ERA)
• Mets starter: Nolan McLean (1-2, 2.78 ERA)