🏎️ Australian Grand Prix Props, Predictions & Best Bets: Russell, Antonelli Set for Liftoff
The new F1 season is finally here, with the first race of the season set for Saturday night.
My Australian Grand Prix props dig into who has mastered the huge changes in play, including a new power unit and overtaking system. But as always with a new season, we have opportunities to pounce on prices that haven't come into form, such as leaning on a rising and favored Mercedes team.
The race is set for 11 p.m. ET on Saturday from Albert Park in Melbourne, airing on ESPN. Mercedes was flying during qualifying, with George Russell and Kimi Antonelli locking up the front row.
🏎️ Best Australian Grand Prix Props: F1 picks for March 7
See our experts' picks based on odds from the best F1 betting sites; Rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value. Picks made before practice and qualifying.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | Fastest lap (+300 via DraftKings) | 1u -> 3u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Kimi Antonelli | Podium finish (+190 via FanDuel) | 1u -> 1.9u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 3.9 units
💰 Best Australian Grand Prix prop bet
George Russell to post the fastest lap (+300)
Russell is the favorite to win in the Australian Grand Prix odds, and for good reason.
Mercedes is widely expected to soar after making significant upgrades to its package, most notably creating a narrower floor on the car to improve aerodynamics, and changing the wing design to reduce drag on straights.
Combine those improvements with the presence of Russell, and we could quickly see the top Mercedes driver lift off. Russell was always lurking among the contenders last year while recording nine podium finishes (including two wins) and 18 top-five results.
🏁 Can Russell rise up?
Our Gary Pearson is rolling with George Russell to win in his Australian Grand Prix winner predictions
🔥 More Australian Grand Prix prop picks
Kimi Antonelli podium finish (+190)
Let's go on the full ride with Mercedes, trusting their enhancements to burn up the track with both drivers.
Kimi Antonelli remains the golden child of F1 while still just 19 years old. He's no longer a rookie though, with a year of experience logged and plenty of lessons learned. It was a season with lots of peaks and valleys, as expected. But he finished strong with a top-five result in three of his final five races, including two of his three podiums.
Now he heads to a track where his rookie season began last year, and Antonelli impressed while narrowly missing the podium and finishing fourth, less than two seconds back of his teammate Russell.
He's getting the fifth-best odds to record a podium finish through FanDuel, which feels like a steal given Mercedes' improvements.
💡 How I'm betting the Australian Grand Prix
We're also looking at the F1 odds at prediction markets.
The best sports betting sites often need a race or two to properly gauge how a new season will play out, and which team has nailed the setup required to thrive.
That's true during any F1 season, but it's especially critical to keep in mind now after so many significant offseason changes. It all leads to some degree of murkiness, and opportunities for unanticipated success.
It's understandable if you want to therefore target an unlikely hero this weekend, and I'd do it through the top 6 or points finish markets. However, I'm playing it a little safer given all the unknowns, and fully hopping on with a Mercedes team that drew widespread praise during offseason testing, especially for its pace on both short and long runs.
💡 How should you bet F1 in 2026?
We dove deeper into all the rule changes and car modifications while looking at how to bet F1 in 2026.
📊 Australian Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Australian Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Russell | -303 | 75.19% | $3.30 |
| Kimi Antonelli | +600 | 14.29% | $60 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Isack Hadjar | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Lando Norris | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +3300 | 2.94% | $330 |
| Max Verstappen | +5000 | 1.96% | $500 |
| Liam Lawson | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Oliver Bearman | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Esteban Ocon | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Pierre Gasly | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Alex Albon | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Franco Colapinto | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Carlos Sainz | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Lance STroll | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +300000 | 0.03% | $30,000 |
🔢 Australian Grand Prix starting grid
Here's the starting grid for the Australian Grand Prix, with Mercedes sitting on the front row, and Red Bull newcomer Isack Hadjar not far behind. However, his teammate and four-time champion Max Verstappen will need to come from behind, as he crashed during qualifying and will start 20th.
| Driver | Starting position |
|---|---|
| George Russell | 1 |
| Kimi Antonelli | 2 |
| Isack Hadjar | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | 4 |
| Oscar Piastri | 5 |
| Lando Norris | 6 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 7 |
| Liam Lawson | 8 |
| Arvid Lindblad | 9 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 10 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 11 |
| Oliver Bearman | 12 |
| Esteban Ocon | 13 |
| Pierre Gasly | 14 |
| Alexander Albon | 15 |
| Franco Colapinto | 16 |
| Fernando Alonso | 17 |
| Sergio Perez | 18 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 19 |
| Max Verstappen | 20 |
📺 How to watch the 2026 Australian Grand Prix
- Date: Saturday, March 7
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- Location: Albert Park (Melbourne, Australia)
- How to watch: ESPN
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