💰 Oscars Value Picks 2026: Which Award Winners Could Surprise on Sunday?

While categories like Best Director and Best Actress are locked up, there are still plenty of awards undecided. Below, I highlight my best Oscars value picks for Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Actor, and Best Original Song.

Each of my picks have a 31% chance to win or worse. However, three of my four choices were heavy favorites to take home Oscar gold at Sunday's 7 p.m. ET (ABC) ceremony less than a month ago. 

💰 My best Oscars sleeper picks

Here are my favorite Oscars value picks based on the Oscars odds from prediction market Kalshi:

⭐ Best Oscars value picks to make now

Here are my best Oscars picks ahead of Sunday's 2026 Academy Awards show in Los Angeles:

Timothee Chalamet to win Best Actor (31%)

Before the Actor Awards on March 1, Chalamet was given a 68.2% chance to win this award. However, after losing that award to Michael B. Jordan and some recent comments about ballet and opera, Chalamet now only has a 31% chance to win.

While losing the Actor Award is definitely a bad thing, Chalamet won the same award last year and then lost the Oscar. Only three of the last five Best Actor winners won the Actor Award, making it one of the least predictive guild awards. This is great news for this year's Golden Globe winner.

Teyana Taylor to win Best Supporting Actress (29%)

After winning the Golden Globe, Taylor's chances of winning spiked to nearly 75%. However, after losses at the BAFTAs and Actor Awards, Taylor now has just a 29% of coming away victorious.

But there are two things working in Taylor's favor. First, she's in the movie that is likely to win the most awards, which could carry her over the finish line. And second, though she lost the BAFTA and Actor, the winners were split at those ceremonies, with Wunmi Mosaku and Amy Madigan winning, respectively. Simply put, there is no favorite here, so Taylor could easily win.

Stellan Skarsgard to win Best Supporting Actor (16%)

I've been tracking the Oscars odds all year, and I've never wavered in my support for Sean Penn in this category. After winning the Actor Award, Penn is a strong favorite to win this award, with his odds at Kalshi currently at 73%.

However, Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, and at one time, his odds of winning were nearly 70%. While Penn has won two Oscars, Skarsgard has never won one. Additionally, while Skarsgard wasn't nominated for the Actor Award, neither was anyone else from Sentimental Value. Yet, the film landed four acting nominations at this ceremony.

With Penn skipping awards ceremonies, don't be surprised if voters reward someone they know will show up.

I Lied to You (Sinners) to win Best Original Song (14%)

Sinners was nominated for a record 16 Oscars. However, it's currently only favored to win four of them. This means there's value in backing the film in numerous categories.

"I Lied to You" is the most impactful song in one of the most decorated movies of the year, and it's performed during one of the most unique scenes you'll ever see. Yet, it's a massive underdog to "Golden" from KPop Demon Hunters (87%).

While "Golden" is probably going to win, we've already seen it lose as a massive favorite this year, when it was defeated by Billie Eilish's "Wildflower" for Song of the Year at the Grammys. It still beat "I Lied to You" in the Best Song Written for Visual Media category, but if voters decide to vote Sinners down the ballot, we could be in for a massive upset.

🏆 2026 Oscars info

• When: Sunday, March 15
• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Dolby Theater in Los Angeles
• How to watch: ABC
• Streaming: Hulu Live TV, YouTubeTV, AT&T TV, FuboTV, ABC app