Republican Presidential Nominee Odds 2028: Vance Clear of Rubio as Prediction Market Favorite

The newest phase of the GOP will need to begin during the buildup to the next U.S. Presidential election, and we're looking ahead while analyzing the Republican presidential odds for 2028.

Vice President JD Vance holds a wide lead as anticipated, and he's often viewed as the candidate best suited to carry on Trumpism after President Trump himself leaves office.

But there's a chance he faces a challenge in the battle to win the U.S. Presidential election odds, and Republicans will need to navigate likely rocky midterm elections first.

🐘 Republican presidential nominee odds 2028

Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.

Vance holds a sizeable lead at 47%, which translates to +113 odds. But Marco Rubio has been steadily rising after sitting at just 6.1% in September. He now rests at 19%, or +426 odds.

No one else is remotely within reach. Here's how the top 10 rounds out.

🗳️ Republican presidential nominee odds analysis

Much like in the Democratic presidential odds for 2028, there's a candidate far out in front, and it's unsurprisingly Vance.

But that's where the similarities end, as unlike Gavin Newsom's dominance on the other side, this prediction market shows there's a possibility Rubio could mount a challenge. Whereas Newsom is sprinting far away among Democrats while sitting at 32% and no one else in even double digits, here Robio is inching toward 20%.

Vance still holds a substantial lead, though his advantage has been gradually shrinking since peaking at 50.4% in mid July. Meanwhile, Rubio, who opposed Trump as a presidential candidate in the 2016 Republican primaries, has enjoyed a rising profile in the Trump administration as the Secretary of State and a national security advisor.

📰 U.S politics updates

• Will Donald Trump be impeached?
• Will Donald Trump invade Greenland?
• Will Donald Trump invade Venezuela?

❓Republican presidential odds 2028 FAQ

Who is favored to win the Republican nomination?

Vice President JD Vance is the favorite while getting a 47% chance, which translates to +113 odds.

Who was the last Republican nominee?

Donald Trump easily cruised to becoming the Republican nominee in 2024 before winning the presidency for a second time.

When is the Republican National Convention?

There's currently no date set for the Republican National Convention. The 2024 convention was held on July 15-18.

When will the 2028 presidential election be decided?

The next day Americans will go to the polls to vote for a president is Nov. 7, 2028.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will cover the 2028 United States presidential election extensively.

How to watch the U.S. presidential election

Every major news outlet will cover the 2028 United States presidential election extensively.

🔀 Kalshi explainer: How party nominee prediction markets work for the 2028 U.S. presidential election

Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated prediction market exchange where users trade on real-world outcomes, including U.S. political events. One of the most followed political offerings is the party nominee market for the 2028 U.S. presidential election.

These markets focus on a simple question: Who will officially become a party’s nominee? Contracts are tied to named candidates, with outcomes settled based on formal party certification at the conclusion of the nomination process.

Prices are displayed in cents and function as implied probabilities, updating continuously as new information enters the market.

2028 party nominee markets on Kalshi

What does a party nominee market measure?

A party nominee market measures whether a specific individual becomes the official Democratic or Republican nominee for president in 2028.

The contract language defines the outcome clearly, and settlement is based on objective, verifiable events such as party conventions or official party announcements.

How do prices work?

• Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents
• A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus
• If the candidate becomes the nominee, the contract settles at $1
• If not, it settles at $0

Prices move as participants react to polling changes, endorsements, fundraising disclosures, debate performances, and candidate exits.

Can positions be exited early?

Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before the nomination is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.

How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?

Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.

Key distinctions include:

• Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds
• Focus on real-world outcomes, not margins or spreads
• Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution

For political markets, success depends on interpreting information flow rather than predicting performance on a field.

Is Kalshi regulated?

Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.

🆚 What sports fans need to know about politcal prediction markets

If you are used to tracking championship futures, party nominee markets are not that different.

Instead of asking which team wins it all, the market is asking which candidate survives a long, multi-stage process and ends up as the official nominee. Prices move the same way futures prices do, reacting to momentum, injuries - here replaced by scandals or dropouts - and changes in public perception.

A candidate trading at 30 cents is essentially the market saying, “Right now, this person has about a one-in-three shot.” If that candidate lands key endorsements or posts strong polling numbers, the price can move quickly.

What makes nominee markets especially interesting is the timeline. This is not a one-night event. It is months of news cycles, debates, fundraising reports, and strategic decisions. That gives participants time to think, react, and reassess as the race evolves.

For sports fans who already understand probabilities and market movement, political prediction markets feel familiar. The scoreboard is just different.