🏀 Cavaliers vs. Magic Player Props Tonight: James Harden Best Bets

James Harden hit the 29,000-point milestone in his last game, yet the market still seems to be undervaluing him as the Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Orlando Magic tonight. You might expect the buzz around that achievement to push his odds higher, but the opposite has happened - leaving value on one of his Overs.

My Cavaliers vs. Magic player props tonight highlight the two best value plays in this matchup. All my NBA picks are tracked, with my full betting record listed below tonight’s analysis. Tipoff from Kia Center in Orlando, Fla., is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN), with the Cavaliers listed as a 3.5-point betting favorite.

🏀 Best Cavaliers vs. Magic player props tonight: NBA picks for March 11

See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 3.54 units | Max profit: 3 units

💰 Best Cavaliers vs. Magic prop bet

Our LJ Blut shares his NBA play of the day amid a 12-6 run.

Paolo Banchero Under 4.5 assists (-152)

Banchero has been extra aggressive on offense when playing the Cavaliers - he was the leading scorer in six of their seven playoff games in 2024 - which means he's less likely to pass. Banchero is averaging just one assist for every 13 minutes played against Cleveland this season.

At this pace, he would have to play 65 minutes - or a full game, plus the majority of four overtime periods - to record five assists tonight. Caesars lists Banchero Under 4.5 assists at -152, but this bet is good up to -190 at the best sports betting sites.

🔥 More Cavaliers vs. Magic prop picks

Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.

James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (+119)

Harden is expected to take fewer 3-pointers playing alongside Donovan Mitchell, but this number is too low according to my projections. Since the All-Star break, Harden has made three-plus 3-pointers in five of his six games with Mitchell.

I don't believe that number is just noise, either, as Harden has attempted seven or more 3-pointers four times in that span - and he's shooting 36.1% from deep on the season. Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers is +119 at DraftKings, but I would play this at the best NBA betting sites up to even money.

📊 James Harden prop trends

The Cavaliers have the fifth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.

💡 How I'm betting Cavaliers vs. Magic

I'm betting a total of 3.54 units on this game, which is more than I would usually bet on two player props. While Banchero's prop is more expensive, what really matters is where the fair price should be for each of these picks.

I believe both of these props are mispriced. Banchero is extra aggressive against the Cavaliers - meaning he'll pass less - and Harden is being undervalued by the market. I expect this to be a higher scoring game tonight, probably in the 230-240 range, with Banchero trying to will the Magic to a win against Harden and Mitchell.

💵 My betting record for NBA picks

All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.

🚑 Cavaliers vs. Magic injuries

📺 How to watch Cavaliers vs. Magic

• Date: Wednesday, March 11
• Tipoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Location: Kia Center (Orlando, Fla.)
• TV: ESPN

🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight

Here is my analysis for the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):

Jabari Smith Jr. Over 20.5 points + rebounds has moved to -125, and while that's not a significant move, it shows that BetMGM no longer wants to offer -120. This bet is still available at -121 at DraftKings for those who want to tail it.

Smith has gone over this line in back-to-back games, and the Rockets will be without Dorian Finney-Smith, who is averaging 23.5 minutes through four games in March.