🏀 NBA Conference Finals Predictions 2026: Series Picks, Odds & Win Probabilities
The Cleveland Cavaliersβ Game 7 win on Sunday set them up with an Eastern Conference Finals matchup against the New York Knicks, starting on Tuesday. Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs - the two highest power-ranked teams heading into the postseason - get their series underway today at Paycom Center.
My 2026 NBA conference finals predictions dig into both matchups, highlight the best value in the market, and map out the playoff schedule ahead.
π Who will win the Eastern Conference Finals?
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
💰️ Kalshi promo code
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
The market is projecting a 71% chance that the Knicks win the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Cavaliers are an underdog with a 30% chance.
While the Knicks are a heavy favorite, this was expected after New York swept the 76ers, who knocked out the favorite in the East, the Celtics.
The Cavaliers were the second-favorite in the East heading into these playoffs, but their win probability has dropped dramatically after they needed seven games in each of their first two series against the Raptors and the Pistons.
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
π Cavaliers vs. Knicks head-to-head stats
Team stats via NBA.com.
Cavaliers vs. Knicks playoff records & team stats
| Stat | Cavaliers | Knicks |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-6 | 8-2 |
| Home | 6-1 | 4-1 |
| Away | 2-5 | 4-1 |
| ATS | 7-7 | 7-3 |
| Over/Under | 9-5 | 5-5 |
| Offensive rating | 113.5 (5th) | 124.8 (2nd) |
| Defensive rating | 112.6 (8th) | 104.8 (2nd) |
| Net rating | 1.0 (6th) | 20.0 (1st) |
Cavaliers vs. Knicks regular-season series (H2H)
| Date | Score | ML | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 22 | Knicks 119 vs. Cavaliers 111 | NY +104 | NY +1.5 (-110) | o229.5 (-106) |
| Dec. 25 | Knicks 126 vs. Cavaliers 124 | NY +150 | NY +4.5 (-118) | o237.5 (-110) |
| Feb. 24 | Cavaliers 109 vs. Knicks 94 | CLE -172 | CLE -2.5 (-108) | u231.5 (-114) |
π Cavaliers vs. Knicks trends
Here are a few trends for Cavaliers vs. Knicks ahead of the Eastern Conference Finals:
- The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
- James Harden has gone Over 2.5 three-pointers made in four of his last five games.
- The Knicks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
- Karl-Anthony Towns has gone Over 4.5 assists in seven straight games.
- The Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head meetings.
π Cavaliers vs. Knicks series prediction
See all of our experts' NBA picks.
Series prediction: Cavaliers win Eastern Conference Finals (30%)
The Cavaliers were the second-favorite to win the East heading into the playoffs, but now they're a heavy underdog to the Knicks because New York swept the 76ers?
I'm not impressed. While I agree that the Knicks should be favored in this series, 30% on the Cavaliers is too good a price to pass up. The Knicks needed six games to get past the Hawks in the first round, and now they have to face the Cavaliers, who were favored in all three of their regular-season head-to-head meetings.
Series prediction: Cavaliers win Eastern Conference Finals (30%)
π Cavaliers vs. Knicks series schedule, how to watch Game 1
| Game | Date (time ET) | TV | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tuesday (8 p.m.) | ESPN | New York |
| 2 | Thursday (8 p.m.) | ESPN | New York |
| 3 | Saturday (8 p.m.) | ABC | Cleveland |
| 4 | May 25 (8 p.m.) | ESPN | Cleveland |
| 5* | May 27 (8 p.m.) | ESPN | New York |
| 6* | May 29 (8 p.m.) | ESPN | Cleveland |
| 7* | May 31 (8 p.m.) | ESPN | New York |
*If necessary
π Who will win the Western Conference Finals?
The Thunder were the first-ranked team heading into the postseason and are 8-0 so far, so it's no surprise that Oklahoma City is a 69% favorite to beat the Spurs (32%).
The Thunder covered three of four games in the conference semifinals against the Lakers, who were without this season's scoring leader, Luka Doncic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went under his points total in three of four games against L.A. but was rewarded for his regular-season play on Sunday when he was announced as this season's NBA MVP, beating out Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama.
The Spurs, meanwhile, covered four of six games against the Timberwolves in the second round.
π Spurs vs. Thunder head-to-head stats
Team stats via NBA.com.
Spurs vs. Thunder playoff records & team stats
| Stat | Spurs | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 8-3 | 8-0 |
| Home | 4-2 | 4-0 |
| Away | 4-1 | 4-0 |
| ATS | 8-3 | 5-3 |
| Over/Under | 6-5 | 6-2 |
| Offensive rating | 117.3 (3rd) | 126.3 (1st) |
| Defensive rating | 102.2 (1st) | 109.3 (6th) |
| Net rating | 15.2 (3rd) | 17.0 (2nd) |
Spurs vs. Thunder regular-season series (H2H)
| Date | Score | ML | ATS | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 13 | Spurs 111 @ Thunder 109 | SA +350 | SA +10 | u232.5 (-106) |
| Dec. 23 | Spurs 130 vs. Thunder 110 | SA +194 | SA +5.5 (-122) | o236.5 (-112) |
| Dec. 25 | Spurs 117 @ Thunder 102 | SA +370 | SA +11.5 (-122) | u246.5 (-114) |
| Jan. 13 | Thunder 119 vs. Spurs 98 | OKC -319 | OKC -8.5 (-112) | u230.5 (-116) |
| Feb. 4 | Spurs 116 vs. Thunder 106 | SA -420 | SA -10 (-112) | o221.5 (-110) |
π Spurs vs. Thunder trends
Here are a few trends for Spurs vs. Thunder ahead of the Western Conference Finals:
- The Spurs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
- Victor Wembanyama has gone Under on his points prop in eight of his last nine games.
- The Thunder are 3-1 ATS in their last four games.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has gone Under on his points prop in four of his last five games.
- The Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings.
π Spurs vs. Thunder series prediction
Series prediction: Spurs win Western Conference Finals (32%)
While I usually don't pay too much mind to head-to-head results - the closing spread is usually more predictive moving forward - Wembanyama creates a unique situation.
The NBA has never seen someone like him - a 7-foot-4 player who can dribble and shoot like a wing - and if a team as good as the Thunder struggles against him, there's probably something matchup-related that spells trouble for Oklahoma City.
I agree that the Thunder should be a favorite in this series, but the Spurs at 32% is too high of a payout for a team Oklahoma City struggles against.
Series prediction: Spurs win Western Conference Finals (32%)
π Spurs vs. Thunder series schedule, how to watch Game 1 today
| Game | Date (time ET) | TV | Location |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Today (8:30 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | Oklahoma City |
| 2 | Wednesday (8:30 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | Oklahoma City |
| 3 | Friday (8:30 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | San Antonio |
| 4 | Sunday (8 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | San Antonio |
| 5* | May 26 (8:30 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | Oklahoma City |
| 6* | May 28 (8:30 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | San Antonio |
| 7* | May 30 (8 p.m.) | NBC/Peacock | Oklahoma City |
*If necessary
π° How to use NBA prediction markets
What does an NBA prediction market measure?
An NBA prediction market measures the likelihood of a specific outcome, such as a team beating another team in the conference finals.
How do prices work?
Prices range from 1 cent to 99 cents.
- A 40-cent contract implies a 40% chance based on market consensus.
- If the outcome occurs, the contract settles at $1.
- If not, it settles at $0.
Prices move as participants react to injury news, outcomes, and stats.
Can positions be exited early?
Yes. Contracts can typically be sold before an outcome is decided. That flexibility allows participants to respond to breaking news or shifts in momentum rather than holding a position until the final outcome.
How is Kalshi different from sportsbooks?
Kalshi operates as an exchange, not a house. Participants trade directly with each other, and prices are set by supply and demand instead of fixed odds.
Key distinctions include:
- Probabilities shown in cents rather than traditional odds.
- Focus on real-world outcomes, not just margins or spreads.
- Ability to adjust or close positions before resolution.
Is Kalshi regulated?
Yes. Kalshi is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Market rules, settlement criteria, and contract definitions are published in advance.
Related Articles
