🏀 Rockets vs. Nuggets Player Props Tonight: Durant & Jokic Picks, Odds
The Denver Nuggets have gone from a 7.5-point betting favorite to a 7-point favorite as we approach the 10 p.m. ET (ESPN) tipoff at Ball Arena in Denver tonight. My picks tonight aren't on the spread, though, as I've found a pair of NBA best bets targeting Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic.
My Rockets vs. Nuggets player props tonight feature the best value plays available as two of the top teams in the West square off. All of my NBA picks are tracked, and my betting record is available below the analysis of tonight's best bets.
🏀 Best Rockets vs. Nuggets player props tonight: NBA picks for March 11
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player | Prop bet | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant, Rockets | Over 24.5 points (-109 via DraftKings) | 1.64u -> 1.5u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Nikola Jokic, Nuggets | Under 12.5 rebounds (-134 via DraftKings) | 1.34u -> 1u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 2.98 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
💰 Best Rockets vs. Nuggets prop bet
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Kevin Durant Over 24.5 points (-109)
Durant should have no trouble scoring tonight, as Denver is ranked fourth-worst in defensive efficiency in the Western Conference.
The last time he faced a team that was similarly ranked in defensive efficiency - the Los Angeles Lakers, who are fifth-worst in the West - he scored 25 points in just 33 minutes. Against the Nuggets, he has cashed this prop in two straight meetings. DraftKings lists Durant Over 24.5 points at -109, but this bet is good up to -135 at the best sports betting sites.
🚀 Best Rockets vs. Nuggets prediction
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🔥 More Rockets vs. Nuggets prop picks
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Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 rebounds (-134)
Jokic grabs 76% of his rebounds on the defensive end, and Houston allows the lowest opponent defensive rebounding percentage (64.8%) in the NBA. With Jokic's chances at defensive rebounds limited tonight, it will be tough for him to go over this huge number.
Jokic has grabbed 10 or fewer rebounds in two of his three meetings with the Rockets this season, and he has recorded 12 or fewer in three of his last four games overall. Jokic Under 12.5 rebounds is -134 at DraftKings, but I would play this at the best NBA betting sites up to -155.
💸 More Nikola Jokic player props
Dustin Saracini's best NBA player props tonight also feature Nikola Jokic.
💡 How I'm betting Rockets vs. Nuggets
I feature more NBA picks worth tailing in my Cavaliers vs. Magic player props.
I'm risking a total of 2.98 units on this game, which is slightly more than I would usually bet on two player props. While I'm confident that Jokic will go Under 12.5 rebounds, the real draw for me here is Durant's points prop.
I'm expecting a high-scoring game tonight, as the Nuggets have allowed 120 or more points in three of their last four games. Denver is ranked first in offensive efficiency, so while it will struggle to contain Durant and the Rockets, it should be able to keep up offensively.
💰️ Bankroll management in sports betting
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💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 47-48-3 | -0.19 units ❌ | -0.2% ❌ |
| Player props | 46-40-3 | +1.15 units ✅ | 1% ✅ |
| Parlays | 1-8 | -1.34 units ❌ | -49.68% ❌ |
🤑 Rockets vs. Nuggets betting splits
Here is my analysis of the Rockets vs. Nuggets betting splits (h/t BetMGM):
| % of bets 🎟️ | % of handle 💰 | |
|---|---|---|
| Rockets ML (+225) | 61% | 93% |
| Nuggets ML (-285) | 39% | 7% |
| Rockets +7.5 | 26% | 19% |
| Nuggets -7.5 | 74% | 81% |
| Over 231.5 | 49% | 28% |
| Under 231.5 | 51% | 72% |
It's interesting that Rockets ML accounts for 61% of tickets but 93% of the handle at BetMGM. This line opened at +170 and has since moved to +225, so it's very unlikely that this action is being driven by sharp money.
BetMGM also has a disproportionate amount of liability on the Under (231.5), which is unusual since it opened lower at 227.5. Perhaps the total has shifted too far toward the Over.
🚑 Rockets vs. Nuggets injuries
📺 How to watch Rockets vs. Nuggets
- Date: Wednesday, March 11
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Ball Arena (Denver)
- TV: ESPN
🎟️ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here is my analysis for the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jabari Smith Jr. | Rockets | Over 20.5 points + rebounds | -120 |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | Under 16.5 points + rebounds + assists | -140 |
| Brook Lopez | Clippers | Under 9.5 points | -110 |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | Over 23.5 points | -115 |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | Under 10.5 points | -110 |
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 20.5 points + rebounds has moved to -125, and while that's not a significant move, it shows that BetMGM no longer wants to offer -120. This bet is still available at -121 at DraftKings for those who want to tail it.
Smith has gone over this line in back-to-back games, and the Rockets will be without Dorian Finney-Smith, who is averaging 23.5 minutes through four games in March.
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