🏒 Canadiens vs. Sabres Prediction & Odds | Game 5 NHL Picks for Thursday, May 14
The Buffalo Sabres return home for Game 5 today after leveling their playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens.
My Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction for Game 5 today includes a moneyline, a total, a player prop, plus a correct score bet at +1300 odds. The market is leaning toward the Sabres to defend home ice as a -120 betting favorite ahead of tonightβs 7 p.m. ET puck drop (TNT, truTV, HBO Max) from KeyBank Center in Buffalo, N.Y., while the total sits at 6.
π Canadiens vs. Sabres picks & odds today: May 14
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| π° Pick | βοΈ Bet size (units) | π§ Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Canadiens Moneyline (+102 via DraftKings) | 1u β 1.02u | Montreal is 10-3 SU in its last 13 road games. |
| Under 6 (-115 via BetMGM) | 1u β 0.87u | Goal total under has won in seven of Canadiens' last 10 games. |
| Alex Newhook Over 0.5 points (+146 via FanDuel) | 1u β 1.46u | Alex Newhook has scored at least one goal in four of his past five starts. |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 3.35 units
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π Who will win Canadiens vs. Sabres?
Oddsmakers and public bettors' confidence are on Buffalo to defend home ice. 63 percent of bets are on the Sabres moneyline in Game 5, along with a whopping 83 percent of bets on over 5.5 total goals.
The Canadiens are 8-2 SU in their last 10 road games against the Sabres. This includes 8-4 SU in the last 12 head-to-head matchups against the Sabres.
Alex Newhook has stepped up for the Canadiens with five goals netted in this series. Expect him to continue leading the charge against a sputtering Buffalo offense for a Game 5 upset.
Score prediction: Canadiens 3, Sabres 2
π° Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction & best bet
Canadiens Moneyline (+102)
Montreal is undervalued in moneyline betting markets heading into game 5. We already saw the Canadiens dispatch the Lightning, who have much more talent compared to the Sabres, during a clutch Game 7 road win in Round 1.
The Canadiens have won each of their last nine games as underdogs following a loss. The Sabres are 2-3 SU against Montreal in their last five head-to-head matchups, while uncertainty from goaltending gives an edge to the Canadiens.
Go to DraftKings to land the best number on the Canadiens to win Game 5 on the road in Buffalo at +102 moneyline odds.
💸 More NHL expert picks
Our Connor Cooper features an NHL best bet on the total in his Golden Knights vs. Ducks prediction.
π₯ Best Canadiens vs. Sabres player prop bet
Alex Newhook Over 0.5 points (+146)
Perhaps the biggest surprise of this series has been the high-level production from Alex Newhook. The Canadiens' second-line forward has made the most of his opportunities, despite not being featured on either powerplay unit.
Newhook enters Game 5 with a three-game goal-scoring streak, netting four goals during this stretch against the Sabres. He's also recorded four or more shots on goal in all four starts this series, which increases his goal-scoring probability.
The Sabres expect to roll out Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in Game 5 after a strong performance in Game 4. However, we've seen Buffalo's netminders surrender three or more goals in the majority of playoff games, meaning Newhook is primed to log a goal in his fourth straight start against the Sabres.
Head to FanDuel to bet on Alex Newhook to log over 0.5 points in the player prop market at +146 odds.
🏒 More Alex Newhook player props
Our Liam Fox backs Alex Newhook to record 3+ shots with his NHL player props tonight.
π Canadiens vs. Sabres same-game parlay
Montreal has covered the puck line in 17 straight games as a road underdog after a loss. Canadiens D Lane Hutson has logged 1+ assists in three straight starts. Bet one unit on this two-leg same-game parlay on Hutson 1+ points and the Canadiens +1.5 for +116 odds on DraftKings.
💵 Canadiens vs. Sabres SGP picks
- Lane Hutson Over 0.5 points (-185)
- Canadiens +1.5 (-250)
Best odds: +116 via DraftKings (1u -> 1.16u)
π‘ More NHL expert picks today
- NHL player props tonight
- NHL anytime goal scorer predictions tonight
- Canadiens vs. Sabres prediction
- Golden Knights vs. Ducks prediction
π΅ My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since April 1.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-48-2 | +12.48 units β | +18.2% β |
| Game picks | 9-11 | +6.88 units β | +10.6% β |
| Player props | 9-16 | -2.89 units β | -14.3% β |
| Parlays | 6-11 | +10.32 units β | +82.6% β |
π‘ How I'm betting Canadiens vs. Sabres
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
I'm staking 4.25 units on five total bets in tonight's pivotal Game 5 tilt between the Canadiens vs. Sabres. One unit bets include the Canadiens moneyline at plus odds, under 6 total goals, and Alex Newhook to go over 0.5 points.
A two-leg same-game parlay includes the Canadiens +1.5 and Montreal D Lane Hutson to go over 0.5 points at +116 odds. Both of these wagers have been lucrative, which is why we're staking another unit on this same-game parlay.
For a longshot game prop, I'm staking 0.25 units on a correct score game prop. To align with the Canadiens winning and under 6 total goals, I'm recommending Montreal to win 3-2 in Game 5 at +1300 odds, yielding 3.25 units of profit.
π Live Canadiens vs. Sabres odds: Game 5
Line movement has not been significant since oddsmakers released the Game 5 numbers a couple of days ago. The total is available at 5.5 or 6, depending on the sportsbook operator. The Sabres sit at -120 or -122 in the moneyline betting market.
Public bets are on the Sabres moneyline at 63 percent. It's an even more lopsided number on the total, with 83 percent of bets on over 5.5.
π Canadiens vs. Sabres betting trends
| Canadiens | Statistic | Sabres |
|---|---|---|
| 54-39 | W-L record | 56-36 |
| 54-39 | ATS record | 52-40 |
| 48-41-4 | O/U record | 41-45-6 |
| 3-2 | Last 5 games | 3-2 |
π Canadiens vs. Sabres injuries
πΊ How to watch Canadiens vs. Sabres: Game 5
- Date: Thursday, May 14
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Center (Buffalo, N.Y.)
- TV: TNT, truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
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