🏒 Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction & Odds: Game 3 NHL Picks Today (April 24)
The NHL playoffs head to La Belle Province tonight as the Montreal Canadiens host the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference best-of-seven series. Puck drop from Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, is set for 7 p.m. ET, airing on TNT/truTV and streaming on HBO Max.
My Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction breaks down why I think the hosts will snag a 2-1 series lead. I'm also going to break down my favorite player prop in what should be a third consecutive tight game, and build out an SGP to chase.
🏒 Lightning vs. Canadiens picks & odds today: April 24
See all of our experts' NHL picks based on the latest NHL odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal moneyline (+102 via FanDuel) | 0.75u → 0.77u | A solid goaltending performance should be enough to get Montreal over the hump |
| Under 6 (-115 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.22u | Tight, defensive-minded games have ruled the series so far |
| Lane Hutson Over 1.5 shots on goal (-130 via DraftKings) | 0.75u → 0.58u | Hutson has been bombing shots, posting 15 shots attempts through two games |
| Lane Hutson Over 2.5 shots on goal (+215 via bet365) | 0.25u -> 0.54u | Hutson is also getting big minutes on the top PP unit |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 2.11 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
🏆 Who will win Lightning vs. Canadiens?
Montreal has played two solid games in this series, and there's really no reason that it should be a plus-money underdog on home ice tonight. With the Bell Center crowd being amped up for the first NHL playoff game of the season in Montreal, there should be plenty of energy to feed off.
Defenseman Victor Hedman is still sidelined for the Bolts, a huge absence on the blueline. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is always the x-factor in these types of games, but a solid performance from Jakub Dobes should get the Canadiens over the hump.
Score prediction: Monreal 3, Tampa Bay 2
💡 More NHL Playoff predictions
The SBR team has you covered across the board tonight, with Gary Pearson all over his Oilers vs. Ducks prediction and Connor Cooper dropping his Golden Knights vs. Mammoth prediction.
💰 Lightning vs. Canadiens prediction & best bet
Montreal moneyline (+102)
On the note of Vasilevskiy being the x-factor, he's actually a huge reason that Tampa isn't hitting the road down 2-0 in the series. Montreal has been the better team through two games per xGoals, with the Bolts netminder helping steal the second game away with his 1.15 goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck.
The Lightning outshot the Habs in both games in Tampa, but it's a lot about the dangerous changes. Montreal is getting higher quality chances than Tampa, and that should pay off in the long run.
I'm comfortable with this line to a pick 'em.
🔥 Best Lightning vs. Canadiens player prop bet
Lane Hutson Over 1.5 shots on goal (-150)
Hutson opened the series with two shots on goal and five shot attempts, but he was bombs away in Game 2, logging six shots on goal (10 attempts) and notching a power-play marker. That type of growing confidence in his shot should result in a continued uptick in shots, and he should be good to get at least two on target.
The young blueliner is getting major minutes, posting no fewer than 29 minutes in either game, and recording at least six minutes on the power play in both contests - a power-play that he quarterbacks. He's seeing more room to roam with Hedman sidelined for Tampa.
NHL Edge stats back up his skating prowess (90th percentile speed, 93rd percentile distance) and show that he's in the offensive zone more than the league average. That's where we want him tonight.
🚀 Lightning vs. Canadiens same-game parlay
We have our SGP tonight, and it's very pro-Canadiens. Despite DraftKings offering the best price on the moneyline and the best price on Hutson having 2+ shots, we're placing at bet365 because it pays out an additional +100.
We'll round things out with Mike Matheson's blocks. He's recorded nine through the two games in Tampa (3 + 6), so we're going to hope he can hit the three mark again tonight.
💵 Lightning vs. Canadiens SGP picks
- Montreal moneyline (+100)
- Lane Hutson over 1.5 shots on goal (-150)
- Mike Matheson Over 2.5 blocks (+125)
Best odds: +625 via bet365 (0.25u -> 1.56u)
💵 My betting record for NHL picks
All NHL picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 3.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-36-1 | +2.43 units ✅ | 7.3% ✅ |
| Moneyline picks | 5-6 | -0.36 units ❌ | -5% ❌ |
| Total (Over/Under) picks | 6-7-1 | -1.22 units ❌ | -14.7% ❌ |
| Player props | 10-11 | +2.56 units ✅ | 20.5% ✅ |
| Parlays | 3-10 | +1.14 units ✅ | 39.2% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting Lightning vs. Canadiens
Follow all of our NHL analysis and expert predictions this season.
Standard game, standard bankroll management. We'll dedicating two units to the game and 0.25 units to our SGP as we look to hit the fences. It's always important to remember that one of the biggest hurdles to success in sports betting is remaining consistent, so that's exactly what I'm looking to do. Tonight I have slightly weighted toward the moneyline (where I've had more success in the playoffs) and see more value than the total, and am doing a mini-ladder on the Hutson shot props, shooting for the minimum of two with 0.75 units and trying to get a cheeky win on a quarter-unit with the third shot.
📊 Live Lightning vs. Canadiens odds: Game 3
This line opened at wildly different prices across our best sports betting sites, but they've all settled into the same range. FanDuel kicked things off at Tampa Bay -115 / Montreal -102, and we've actually seen a little more movement here than we have with a lot of games this postseason, with the line at FanDuel hitting Tampa Bay -125 momentarily earlier this afternoon before pulling back just a little. At DraftKings, things opened at Tampa Bay -135 / Montreal +114 before drawing back. At the time of publication, both sites are offering Tampa Bay -122 / Montreal +102.
The total opened at a flat 6 (-118/-102) and has seen a majority of the tickets coming in on the Over (56%). Despite this, almost all operators are moving the line toward the Under, with prices as solid as Over +100 floating around and some sportsbooks (bet365, Fanatics) shifting to 5.5, but heavily juiced to the Over.
📈 Lightning vs. Canadiens betting trends
| Lightning | Statistic | Canadiens |
|---|---|---|
| 51-26-7 | W-L record | 49-24-11 |
| 41-43 | ATS record | 48-36 |
| 42-37-5 | O/U record | 45-36-3 |
| 3-1-1 | Last 5 games | 2-2-1 |
🚑 Lightning vs. Canadiens injuries
📺 How to watch Lightning vs. Canadiens Game 3
- Date: Friday, April 24
- Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Bell Centre (Montreal)
- TV: TNT/truTV
- Streaming: HBO Max
Related Articles
