⚾ Best Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Odds & HR Picks for Friday, June 5
Major League Baseball returns to Coors Field this weekend, and the altitude in Denver is always something I aim to capitalize off of with my best home run predictions today.
Colorado Rockies slugger Hunter Goodman isn’t the only catcher I’m backing with my MLB home run picks, as Will Smith has always had success against southpaws, putting him in an advantageous matchup against the other team from Los Angeles. To round out my four-pack of plays, I’m targeting the red-hot Oneil Cruz and making more of a value play on Kyle Stowers.
⚾ Best home run predictions today: MLB picks & odds June 5
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith to hit a home run (+474 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Smith was a top-30 hitter against LHP for the last four seasons |
| Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | The Marlins hit home runs in bunches this week |
| Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+500 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.3u | Cruz is on pace for the best on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wRC+ of his career |
| Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+320 via bet365) | 0.25u → 0.8u | Just four of Goodman's 15 home runs have come at Coors Field, boding well for his season-long HR total |
Total wagered: 1.0 units | Max profit: 4.79 units
📃 Affiliate disclosure
Sportsbook Review may receive a commission if you sign up through our links. Not intended for use in MA. Bonuses not applicable in Ontario. 21+ only. (Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
💣 Best home run prediction today
Will Smith to hit a home run (+474)
Will Smith is one of five current Dodgers who have gone deep off of Reid Detmers. But given Detmers’ .400 slugging percentage allowed to right-handed batters compared to .258 against lefties, that has me backing Los Angeles’ most feared hitter in the better split for this matchup.
All of Smith’s six home runs this season have come against right-handed hurlers, but his past success against lefties suggests positive regression is coming. From 2022-25, he ranked 23rd in wRC+ and 27th in ISO among all qualified batters against southpaws, while averaging a 24 HR/162 game pace over that span.
📡 SBR Edge: Smith's success against L.A.
Will Smith has appeared in 27 career games against the Angels, and has slashed .311/.411/.556 with six home runs and a .333 BABIP.
🔥 More home run picks today
Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+600)
On Tuesday the Marlins hit three consecutive homers for the first time since 2023. At that point, they had belted seven home runs combined in their prior two games, which matched their total from the previous 11.
Kyle Stowers is capable of getting hot after last year's breakout season with 25 home runs in 457 plate appearances, buoyed by an elite 19% barrel rate.
Stowers has two hits in his only three at-bats against Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen has pitched to a 4.19 ERA over his last eight starts after beginning with a 1.13 ERA over his first three. His ERA should continue to regress if his whiff and barrel rates remain among the bottom half of all qualified pitchers.
Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+500)
I tabbed Oneil Cruz as one of my best home run plays in yesterday’s column, but am backing him for a second consecutive day as he opposes Braves southpaw Martin Perez.
Cruz had 401 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers from 2021-25. In that span, he slashed .172/.247/.313 with a 54 wRC+, a 43.3% hard-hit percentage, and 10.0% barrel rate. This year alone, through his first 79 plate appearances in that split, he was slashing .311/.354/.514 with a 139 wRC+, 63.4% hard-hit percentage, and 17.1% barrel rate.
Entering the week, Cruz was on pace to tie the fourth-most home runs (Eric Davis, 37 in 1987) in a season by a player who also stole 45-plus bases in MLB history.
Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+320)
Prior to dropping their series finale against the Angels on Wednesday, Colorado was 4-1 in its previous five games, while averaging 7.8 runs and scoring 39 runs over that span. That was a big improvement over the 40 runs scored the Rockies amassed in the prior 12.
Hunter Goodman ended that series in the top 10 on the MLB home run leaderboard, with three of his 15 long balls coming in the last seven days. In that span, he had six total extra-base hits and a 1.205 OPS.
Goodman gets a tasty matchup against Brandon Sproat, who has allowed a home run in three of his last four starts, and a higher slugging percentage to right-handed batters than lefties on the season.
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
It isn't often that I back catchers in home run parlays, but the odds for Smith and Goodman and the matchups they're in were too good to pass up. The last two legs involving Stowers and Cruz work well together in that both hitters have been red-hot of late, even if they've only combined for three career at-bats against tonight's opposing starting pitchers.
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Will Smith to hit a home run (+550)
- Kyle Stowers to hit a home run (+600)
- Oneil Cruz to hit a home run (+368)
- Hunter Goodman to hit a home run (+232)
Best odds: +70596 via bet365 (0.1u -> 70.6u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 119-183-1 | +31.41 units ✅ | +16.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 75-154 | +19.89 units ✅ | +16.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting MLB home run picks today
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
It was easy to identify Goodman as one of my MLB home run picks today, as I wanted to get behind a player appearing in the Brewers-Rockies matchup from Coors Field. While I normally try to back other bigger name sluggers at the top of the MLB home run leaderboard, I'm content today with my other three value plays and needing just one to cash to turn in a decent profit.
Related Articles
