⚾ Brewers vs. Rockies Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, June 5

Major League Baseball’s hottest team over the last month looks to exploit the National League’s worst team, as the Milwaukee Brewers open a three-game road series at Coors Field in Denver against the Colorado Rockies. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET with the Brewers listed as a -155 betting favorite. The starting pitching matchup features Brandon Sproat vs. Ryan Feltner.

My Brewers vs. Rockies prediction backs the home underdog as one of my surprise MLB picks, despite what is perceived as a colossal mismatch, as I trust Feltner to better navigate the tough conditions at altitude. That means I am expecting Sproat to be in for a rough start while serving up a long ball to a Colorado slugger.

⚾ Brewers vs. Rockies picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.54 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Rockies?

Colorado has a rest advantage with yesterday’s day off while facing a Milwaukee team that finished a series yesterday and now embarks on a six-game West Coast road trip. That has me taking a flier on the Rockies as home underdogs.

Score prediction: Rockies 6, Brewers 5

💰 Brewers vs. Rockies prediction & best bet

Rockies ML (+130)

Milwaukee is an MLB-best 19-7 since May 6 with a plus-47 run differential over that span. And going back further to May 1, the Brewers pitching staff owned the best ERA (2.47), xERA (2.96), and FIP (2.77) of any team in the majors up to yesterday.

However, much of Milwaukee’s pitching success comes from the duo of Jacob Misiorowski and Kyle Harrison, while Brandon Sproat owns a 6.14 road ERA. That ERA should balloon after a Coors Field start, in conditions that Ryan Feltner has handled well, boasting a 3.79 home ERA and .250 OBA.

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Rockies player prop bet

Brandon Sproat Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125)

Prior to losing Wednesday’s series finale against the Angels 11-4, the Rockies had scored 39 runs over a five-game stretch (4-1 record), nearly matching the 40 runs they had scored in the prior 12 games.

Coming into a matchup against a red-hot Rockies offense should mean a shorter outing than usual for Sproat. While his .225 road OBA doesn’t necessarily speak to why his 6.14 ERA is so poor, he has had control issues in road starts, and a 9.0 K/9 rate compared to a 10.0 K/9 rate at home.

Sproat has failed to complete five innings in four of five road starts, and Colorado strikes out at the fourth-lowest rate (19.5%) against right-handed pitchers in home games this season. 

💣 Brewers vs. Rockies home run prediction

TJ Rumfield to hit a home run (+575)

Milwaukee’s 41 home runs are the fewest among all teams. The Brewers are so averse to home-run hitting that they scored 16 runs earlier this week without hitting a home run (their third-most in a game in franchise history without homering). 

That led me to TJ Rumfield as my most likely slugger to go deep. Rumfield is one of three Rockies with eight-plus home runs against right-handed pitching. His .522 slugging percentage against righties ranks second on the team, and he is in the 91st percentile in launch angle sweet spot percentage.

Sproat’s 1.8 HR/9 rate would be among the league’s worst if he had enough innings to qualify, and I don’t envision him adjusting well to his first start at Coors Field. 

🚀 Brewers vs. Rockies same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay work well with each other in supporting a Rockies outright upset. I went with a more conservative approach with the last leg of this parlay, changing from Rumfield's home run prop to him driving in a run. Opponents have scored 27 total runs in Sproat's five road starts, and Rumfield has at least one RBI in three of the last four games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Brewers vs. Rockies: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Had Milwaukee's moneyline odds been closer to -200, I would've taken a longer look at Colorado's run line odds instead of moneyline odds, as they likely would've been more in the +100 to -105 range at that point. While I took a more aggressive approach with backing Colorado to pull the upset, I wouldn't put anyone off wagering on the Over, as it will likely take a big offensive day to best Milwaukee's top-6 scoring offense.

I also couldn't pass up an opportunity to back May's NL Rookie of the Month TJ Rumfield. He earned those honors after batting .310 with four home runs, three doubles, 12 RBI, and a .400 on-base percentage in 25 games.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Rockies odds

Slightly more wagers are coming in on Milwaukee's moneyline odds (increased from 56% to 58% of the wagers early Friday morning), but the moneyline odds haven't budged. That suggests either there was not much sharp action on the favorites comprising this increase, or the top sports betting sites don't mind needing to root for the home underdogs.

There is a bit of reverse line movement happening with the total, as Caesars and bet365 lowered their O/U to 11.5 from an opening number of 12, despite the early betting splits being 2/1 in favor of the Over.

📈 Brewers vs. Rockies betting trends

🚑 Brewers vs. Rockies injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Rockies

• Date: Friday, June 5
• First pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Coors Field (Denver)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Brandon Sproat (1-4, 6.24 ERA)
• Rockies starter: Ryan Feltner (2-1, 4.85 ERA)