Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, June 25

The New York Yankees have won four of their five head-to-head meetings with their most bitter rival, the Boston Red Sox, and look to continue that dominance in tonight’s series opener with their ace on the mound. The starting pitching matchup is between Cam Schlittler and Connelly Early, with first pitch from Fenway Park scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). The Yankees are a -160 betting favorite.

My Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction expects a victory from the road favorites behind a strong outing from Schlittler. I’m also backing a Bronx Bomber that crushes left-handed pitching to go deep with the last of my MLB picks.

⚾ Yankees vs. Red Sox picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 3.28 units

🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Red Sox?

Boston has an MLB-worst 12-25 record at home, as all other teams have at least 16 home wins. That’s enough for me to back New York, who have performed surprisingly well without Aaron Judge.

Score prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2

💰 Yankees vs. Red Sox prediction & best bet

Yankees ML (-156)

The Yankees are 12-8 since the start of June, which is tied for the fifth-best record in the Majors and the best in the AL. That is significant, as Aaron Judge last played on May 31.

From 2022-25, the Yankees had a .585 winning percentage with Judge (335-238), and were just a .453 team (34-41) without him. This year, New York played .610 baseball (36-23) in 59 games with Judge, but are on a torrid 97-win pace without him.

The Yankees are 4-1 with a plus-21 run differential in Schlittler’s last five starts, and are 2-0 in his two outings against Boston.

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Red Sox player prop bet

Willson Contreras Under 0.5 hits (+155)

Willson Contreras has hit safely in eight of the last 12 games, and has nearly as many multi-hit games (three) as hitless games in that span. However, he is facing the current AL Cy Young Award favorite, which makes this plus-money wager for Contreras to go hitless a steal.

Schlittler has allowed a .175/.208/.266 slash line to right-handed batters, and just seven of his 25 hits in that split have gone for extra bases. His 1.71 ERA is the lowest by a Yankee pitcher through 16 starts since Hall of Famer Whitey Ford’s season in 1964.

Schlittler is coming off a career-high 13-strikeout performance, which was also his first career start with double-digit strikeouts. He is also one of three pitchers with 12-plus strikeouts and zero walks in each of his first two seasons since the mound was moved to its current distance in 1893.

💣 Yankees vs. Red Sox home run prediction

Paul Goldschmidt to hit a home run (+437)

By several metrics, Paul Goldschmidt has been the best batter in the league against left-handed pitching. Prior to him going deep twice off of the best southpaw in the AL in Tarik Skubal yesterday, Goldschmidt had an MLB-best 237 wRC+ against lefties. The gap between him and the next-closest hitter (Corbin Carroll) was bigger than the gap between the second and eighth-best hitters.

Goldschmidt also entered yesterday leading the league with a .740 slugging percentage against southpaws, and was fourth in ISO and eighth in BABIP (.426). 

Early has allowed multiple home runs in four of his last seven starts, and his 2.08 HR/9 rate in that span is the fourth-worst among qualified pitchers.

🚀 Yankees vs. Red Sox same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay accomplish the same goal of helping the Yankees beat the Red Sox outright for the fifth time in six head-to-head meetings. To give the SGP more of a chance of cashing, I am swapping Goldschmidt's home run wager for him to drive in a run, which he has done nine times in the last 16 games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Yankees vs. Red Sox: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

Odds of -160 (carrying a 61.54% implied probability) are usually my breaking point between backing a team's moneyline versus runline odds. Since FanDuel is much lower than the rest of the market at -156 moneyline odds, I'm backing the Yankees to win outright.

Either way, a run line wager is not a bad bet, as New York has outscored Boston 10-to-3 in Schlittler's two starts. But I'm confident in a Yankees outright win, as Boston's 12-25 home record has it on pace to lose 110 games if it played every game at home over a 162-game season.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Red Sox odds

New York has attracted 66% of the early moneyline wagers, and the market has responded accordingly. One of the biggest line movement among the best sports betting sites happened at BetMGM, who went from an opening number of -155 to -165.

The total by comparison has seen a case of reverse line movement, as the O/U has ticked down from 8 to 7.5 at several of the best sports betting sites despite the Over attracting 62% of the money. 

📈 Yankees vs. Red Sox betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Red Sox injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Red Sox

• Date: Thursday, June 25
• First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Fenway Park (Boston)
• TV: MLB Network
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Cam Schlittler (8-3, 1.71 ERA)
• Red Sox starter: Connelly Early (6-5, 3.64 ERA)